And should go after Lowry (who they just dealt) or Bledsoe. And kudos to their "finesse defense" for not fouling. At least Doolittle admits his equation for predicting wins overlooks a little thing called defense.


Interpreting the Houston Rockets' season is defined by the type of person you are: If you're an optimist, you'll point to a 54-win campaign, an improved defense that was in the top half of the league, and homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs; if you're a pessimist, you point out that the perimeter defense was less than desirable, the team underachieved in wins and got its lunch handed to it in a first round matchup against a team it owned in the regular season -- even if, as GM Daryl Morey tweeted after their Game 4 loss, they were on the wrong end of coin flips.


The Rockets enter the offseason with some potential cap flexibility and a talented roster needing minor tweaks, but also a dark cloud of questions about the viability of their superstar combo of James Harden and Dwight Howard, and whether head coach Kevin McHale is the right man for the job.

2014-15 STATUS QUO BASELINE: 61.4 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)

I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: It would be hard to find someone who could find fault in the Howard acquisition, as he's been everything Houston has hoped and dreamed: an elite defensive anchor, high level rebounder, and reliable offensive option, particularly as a roll man. The discourse about his post play has been overblown. Playoff struggles aside, it was another banner year for Harden as the arguable best shooting guard in the game (at the very least, the most efficient). At the tender age of 24, it's conceivable that we haven't seen the best that Harden has to offer, as he searches for that equilibrium between leading scorer and facilitating for others. Defensively, he's been a train wreck, and that's something that needs to be addressed, especially as the Blazers made it a point to exploit this weakness with Wesley Matthews (hardly an offensive force). Chandler Parsons is the perfect third banana as a good shooter who can also put the ball on the floor and make a play, and has room for improvement as his role grows, while Patrick Beverley showed that the defensive boost he brought in last year's postseason was no fluke.

James Harden
Sam Forencich/NBAE/Getty Images
Have we seen the best James Harden has to offer?
Doolittle: Your eyes may well be popping out at the Rockets' baseline projection, and they probably should. These projections are early and rough, but they do speak to the potential of the roster Morey has put together. This basic set of projections doesn't cop to the defensive problems that Houston must solve. The Rockets allowed more than 114 points per 100 possessions during their first four games against Portland, easily the worst mark among playoff teams. However, consider this: During the regular season, Houston posted a point differential of a 53-win team in an usually tough conference, and yet ranked just 24th with a minutes-weighted team age of 25.7. Given the likely improvements of nearly every rotation player and a healthy status quo from Omer Asik, an improvement into the upper-50s is a definite possibility for Houston, especially if it can enhance a finesse defense that posted the lowest foul rate in the league.

II. Shake it up
Elhassan: Houston has two valuable contributing backups who NEED to be off the roster as soon as possible: Jeremy Lin and Asik. The nature of their contracts calls for the cash-out payment of about $15 million apiece. As a result, they become overly expensive backups and a luxury Houston neither needs nor can afford. On the bright side, they still hold value as players with the potential to start on a playoff team (Asik moreso than Lin), and that should assist the Rockets in their pursuit of help. One such target could be Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap, who would fit the Rockets' desire for a power forward who can space the floor and be versatile defensively. Millsap is entering the final year of his deal, which calls for him to make $9.5 million, and a Millsap-for-Asik deal makes sense for Atlanta as a defensive anchor they so desperately need.

Josh Smith
Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images
The addition of Josh Smith could help with some of Houston's perimeter issues.
Another option would be to pursue Josh Smith of the Detroit Pistons. He fits the bill as a lockdown defender who can shore up some of Houston's perimeter issues, and has a prior relationship with Howard. Obtaining him from Detroit might be easier in terms of assets given up, but will be costlier in terms of dollars and cents (more than $40 million owed over the next three seasons). Finally, they'd need a solid backup point guard for relatively cheap, preferably one who can create for others (a role Beverley struggles at); Luke Ridnour could fit that role well.

Doolittle: Unlike the last couple of years when Morey was transitioning his roster, Houston has a little more certainty this time around in terms of returning players. He's got seven players already under contract, with only Howard having more than four years of experience. This doesn't include likely returnees Beverley, Parsons and Troy Daniels, who have non-guaranteed deals or team options. The Houston roster is not yet a finished product by any stretch, and the organization's investment in the D-League means that it should keep uncovering cheap, effective role players for its system such as Daniels.

That will leave Morey to improve the core incrementally when he can. Howard and Harden are constants, so the best chance to add an impact high salary would be to deal the expiring deals of Lin and Asik in a package. They're good players, but they had a combined cap hit of $16.4 million to produce 3.16 WARP, which is worth around $7 million. Carmelo Anthony makes some sense in a sign-and-trade, though if you combine Anthony and Harden's usage rate (around 60 percent), you have to worry about Howard's touches.

III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: The underlying tension between Harden and Howard about how the offense flows (outside-in or inside-out) needs to be addressed ASAP, as a one-two punch isn't very effective when it's self-inflicted. For many, the responsibility of making these two players realize they need each other falls on the head coach, and McHale has seemed overwhelmed at times by the dynamic. He's entering the final year of his deal, so one has to wonder whether the pressure of being a lame-duck coach will allow him to coach freely.

Beyond that, Houston's "issues" are mostly cap-related: Can they dump the Lin and Asik deals easily; can they acquire a defensively versatile forward for a good price; and can they budget enough money leftover to pay Parsons and Beverley in the near future (both are scheduled to become free agents in 2015)?

Doolittle: Hopefully it was just a learning season, but there were a couple of aspects of the Portland loss that are concerning. Harden's inefficiency was the standout failing -- a usage rate north of 30, with a true shooting percentage nearly 150 points of his regular-season mark. This suggests the Rockets need another shot creator, or at least Harden needs to show an increased willingness to back off during key possessions. Also, there were too many instances in which Howard's diminished explosiveness was apparent. His regular-season ATH ratings the last four years: 31.0, 30.7, 26.0 and 25.1. It's a bad trend for a player coming off the first season of a big contract. Still, the Rockets have cast their die with this foundation, so they have to proceed accordingly. Nevertheless, the sooner Houston finds its third wheel -- whether it's from player development or an acquisition -- the better.

IV. The Perfect Roster
Ideal 20140-15 roster
Pos Player 2015 Age 2015 Salary 2015 WARP
C Dwight Howard 28 $21.4m 11.0
PG Patrick Beverley 25 $0.9m 4.6
SG James Harden 24 $14.7m 14.5
SF Chandler Parsons 25 $1.0m 5.6
PF Paul Millsap 28 $9.5m 7.5
bC Mitch McGary 22 $0.5m 0.0
bPG Jeremy Lin 25 $8.4m 2.5
bSG Troy Daniels 22 $0.8m 3.2
bSF Francisco Garcia 32 $1.3m 0.5
bPF Terrence Jones 22 $1.6m 3.1
RES1 Omri Casspi 25 $1.1m 0.8
RES2 KJ McDaniels 21 $1.1m 0.0
Est. Payroll: $62.4 million; Updated Win Range: 59 to 64
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold = new player.
Elhassan: I went a conservative route for the projected roster, assuming that trading Lin is easier said than done. Obviously moving him would create much more cap space, allowing Houston to have more ambitious targets in free agency, like Kyle Lowry or Eric Bledsoe. As is, making a move for Millsap gives Houston the most financially flexible upgrade to its roster, while drafting K.J. McDaniels from Clemson at 25 gives it a defensive stopper to groom in the D-League, along with second round sleeper Mitch McGary.

----
NBA MOCK DRAFT #1 - https://thecourierclass.com/whole-shebang/2017/5/18/2017-nba-mock-draft-1-just-lotto-and-lotta-trades