Nothing the Academy loves more than scenery-chewing.
There's a fairly easy game to play to determine if an actor has a real chance at an Oscar nomination. Can you immediately pick out which scene they would play at the ceremony as you watch the movie? It must involve either crying or shouting.
I didn't think Theron had an obvious Oscar scene (maybe the scene where she discovers the green place is gone? That'd be my best guess). She was too busy giving a great performance.
(It's worth pointing out that I love 4 of the 5 nominees in that category-- but they were all pretty easy-to-peg Oscar performances, save for Ronan, who, while she does cry, does really lovely understated work. But goddamn, I've already forgotten the J-Law movie.)
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