>
>>How can you prove the sales
>>WOULDN'T have gone up *15%*
>>_without_ Napster?
>
>This is a great response, but
>I have an answer.
>Sales among Napster users GREW
>at a quicker rate than
>among non-Napster users. THAT
>makes it seem that Napster
>encouraged purchase.

that is one interpretation.

another interpretation is they might have bought EVEN MORE records without Napster than with it. Keep all possibilities in mind here...

>>There are empirical
>>studies showing opposite conclusions on
>>this issue,
>
>These studies DO EXIST, but they
>are inherently flawed

maybe I didn't phrase that clearly enough. when i said "there are empirical studies showing opposite conclusions" I meant that there are studies which reach two different conclusions which are opposite of one another. Presumably you are calling the studies used to support "anti-Napster" arguments are flawed. By the same token, the studies relied upon for pro-napster arguments also have flaws. The District Court found the RIAA-supported studies were more reliable. Let's be fair to all sides of the issue here...a perfect study hasn't been done yet on either side.

, as they
>are based on college students,
>which, believe it or not,
>are no longer a fair
>representation of Napster users.

what study do you base that conclusion on?

>College students are more likely
>to be surrounded by discount
>record stores, and also have
>easier access to burners (in
>general) which are other factors
>contributing to the decline in
>Chain Store CD sales.

right, but the presence of napster in the equation is what facilitates access to music which is "burnable" (i.e. MP3s).

>The OTHER kind of major study
>on the issue that supports
>the record industry is the
>decline in sales of CD
>singles. Hey, guess what???
>The industry really wanted to
>get rid of CD singles
>anyway, since they produce very
>little margin.

I know this already. They studies show a precipitous drop in CD single sales which is much sharper than the steady decline that was already occurring. The music industry argument is the CD single sales were slipping, then Napster came and pulled the rug from under the CD single's "feet" causing sales to tumble sharply. It is a debateable point, but we need new studies to base the debate on.

Think about
>it: the single costs the
>same amount to produce as
>a full size CD ($2-$4)
>but it sells for MUCH
>LESS than a full-length album
>($5-$8 instead of $11-$19 for
>a full-length.) It was
>only when the lawyers realized
>they needed stronger statistics that
>they sought out CD sales.

I don't know what your source on RIAA's legal strategy is, but that sounds specious. Even without the CD single study, there was substantial evidence of damages...just by showing the number of MP3 files exchanged over the Napster system, the RIAA and major label lawyers already had shown millions in damages. This is complex enough to discuss by e-mail or inbox, actually.

> Maybe CD singles sell
>less because the record industry
>produces fewer of them now.

I'm pretty sure that variable was taken into account. Give the researchers *some* credit.

>Either way, the record industry is
>shooting itself in the foot,
>and if Napster closes, Gnutella
>will reign supreme.

You don't understand the game. They go after alleged infringers one at a time. If Gnutella is "invulnerable to suit" as some commentators profess, I'm sure the industry will find some way to compensate from any loss caused by Gnutella use. This is a multibillion dollar business. It will keep rolling regardless, but they are trying to maximize profit: every infringer they can nail, they will, rest assured.

Thoughtfully yours,

Spirit

http://www.mp3.com/miscellaneousflux - click for instant audio gratification

http://mp3.washingtonpost.com/bands/in_shallah.shtml
- b-boy soul music for the world to
uprock to...

http://mp3.washingtonpost.com/bands/miscellaneous_flux.shtml (Flux's "Sad Sunshine" is currently an editor's pick at http://www.washingtonpost.com/mp3)

"Quit acting like a bitch, 99.99999% of the people can see that you're an idiot." - OKP october33 ripping a hole in someone

"Put on a Mobb Deep record. Take a shot everytime you hear 'Nigga'. Two shots everytime you hear QBC/41st Side/Queensbridge. Three shots everytime you hear 'gat' or any other nickname for a gun. If you make it to the third track alive, call 911, and go get your stomach pumped..." - OKP DiscoDJ teaching the kids about the dangers of mixing alcohol and Mobb Deep

Peace,

Spirit (Alan)
http://wutangbook.com