probability of a sports game. They highly base numbers on the form
and results of each team….

https://bookies.com/guides/how-bookmakers-create-odds

“These days, betting odds compiling is about number crunching and using databases of information to set the market. Traders will analyze dozens of sports to correctly assess the probability of every outcome. The vig is then applied to the price, which helps set the bookmaker’s price.

For instance, it might be as simple as analyzing the home team’s previous results compared to the away team’s form. By running the numbers through mathematical models, odds compilers can quickly set odds in real time.”

So in the case of the Heat/Celtics, the spreads were highly inaccurate and not even
close to the ending results, where as with the Lakers/Denver, they pretty much hit on the
head. The spread in that game was -5.5. Denver won by five

- History of the two teams playing against each other
- the current form of each team
- home and away
- injury report .

All of that is highly, highly factored in. If it were just based on falling trends and actions
of bettors, books would lose money.

It’s is rocket science and then some, highly elaborate calculations and systems
are used to created odds/spreads

And the Heat/Celtics games was highly erroneous ..because none of the two games came
close to the spread. Books do make errors and this is one of them.