>It seems like if a kid doesn’t declare after his sophomore season , it’s looked at as a negative in terms of his NBA prospects and pretty much written off as an “overseas” player

I don't think that's true. I think if you don't declare as an underclassman, then yes, your upside appears limited. But you can still possess a *lot* of value as a starter-quality player in the NBA if you showcase enough skill in college and have the requisite size/athleticism to compete-- and even if very few upperclassmen get taken in the lottery these days, NBA teams have certainly found some sneaky upperclassmen upside in the late first/early second, guys like Desmond Bane, Jalen Brunson, etc.

So I think Bronny, while he doesn't strike me as ever being a lottery pick kinda dude, could absolutely be in that late first/early second tier if he shows his game at the college level for a couple of years and lets teams know "hey, I improve every year, and I've got enough versatility, IQ, and pedigree to help you win."

That still may not be good enough for some-- but it'd be good enough to have a long term career in the NBA and make a lot of money. (Plus he could clean up on NIL deals in college, obviously-- especially if he stayed a couple seasons.) If he goes after one season, I'm really concerned he just ends up as a guy who's immediately shelved into the G-League the second his dad retires, and he won't have built up his game enough to sustain.