The one thing you know you're getting with AJ is a fantastic shooter. He was one of the best shooters in college basketball, which you rarely get from a kid his age and his size.

The defense... was not good last year. Lateral quickness concerns on that end. Also still needs to work on passing, diversifying his offensive skill set beyond his terrific jumper. Sometimes he was locked in and crushing opponents with his scoring, but other times, he seemed lost. Consistency probably is also a product of the time he's had to spend off the court due to injury.

His injury history might be a red flag to some, but it could also easily be seen as an indicator that he has plenty of untapped potential from what he showed at Duke. Before he got hurt in high school, he was definitely more athletic than we saw consistently at Duke, where his lateral quickness and even his burst just weren't there. Is this a Dennis Smith Jr. thing, where we'll never see that previous guy again? Or is this a thing where after a year or two of conditioning, we'll see him come back toward the path he was on circa sophomore year of high school?

That said, I still think there's a clear path to him being a starter at the next level. Like, Reggie Bullock was a starter on a playoff team this season-- I think "better Reggie Bullock" is around AJ's median expected outcome right now, a guy mostly there to space the floor and provide good positional size. But the variance in his outcomes is pretty wide. His downside, if injuries keep popping up and his defense/passing never improve, could be out of the league before age 30. His upside, however, is considerable-- he was a contender for the top spot in his HS class before injury. I'm sure someone could talk themselves into a highest possible outcome in which he's an All-Star. I think "starter for a good team/~3rd option on a middling-to-bad team" feels like a safe median outcome.