The case for Paolo at #1 is pretty straight forward: do you need offense? There's a strong argument that he's the most skilled offensive player in the draft-- and at 6'10, 240 lbs, and 19 years old, that's an *insane* thing to consider. He's tremendous at getting to his shots and uses his size to shoot over the top, especially at the midrange. He's a very skilled passer, maybe the best in the first round, and can run your offense if need be-- I wouldn't use him full-time as a point forward, per se, but he can give you that. He's got terrific handles for a guy his size. It's just hard to imagine how most players guard him, especially in the NBA with all the added space on the court. Guards can't deal with his strength (even a number of NBA bigs can't deal with his strength). Bigs can't deal with his speed and dexterity on the outside. He's just an awesome weapon on offense.

Defensively... look, he had his moments on-ball, but off-ball there's definitely a learning curve here. He's also not a freak athlete-- he's got a good combo of strength and finesse, but I feel like the "guys who can score at volume in the NBA" top 3 prospects tend to be big time athletes too, and that's not *really* Paolo. And, of course, the 3 point shot is probably a bit below NBA average right now, and if you think Paolo is a multi-year All-Star type, you probably need to believe he'll shoot closer to 37-38% than he did last year.

I think he'll be the odds-on favorite to win ROY if he ends up in Houston, because that light will be mega-green, and he actually pairs with Jalen Green really nicely. (The defense on that team next year would... not be good, but hey, that's a young team for you.) If you told me he does 16 PPG right away, I'd buy it. Long term? Ceiling might be a bit lower than guys like Jabari and Chet because he's not a two-way player or majorly plus athlete. Upside is that he becomes a Chris Webber type, someone flirting with 20/10/5 on the regular on a winning team. Downside is... I don't know, Diet Coke Julius Randle? The sort of dude who's giving you in that same ballpark of a line, but with less efficiency and less of an impact on winning. Either way, I think Paolo's a really strong bet to be a productive offensive NBA player.