>And if mid tier schools become
>feeder programs for the elite then I think fan bases are going
>to lose interest really quick.

Many of the biggest name players were already going to the high-majors unless they were already upperclassmen-- so when you add an extra COVID year, numbers were bound to spike.

I think people also pretty grossly underestimate, at least in college basketball, how many mid-to-low-majors benefit from the transfer portal by snagging down transfer kids from high-majors. Basically any NCAA Tournament, when you look at the conference tournament winners from mid-to-low majors, you see a healthy volume of down transfers.

I also don't think the elite programs are just going to non-stop clean up on transfers like people tend to suggest. If you look at the top, say, 20-25 non-high-major transfers who've already committed to schools this year, there's a healthy diversity in their high-major destinations. Think there's a perception that loads of transfers want to just collect an NIL check to sit on the bench of a major title contending type of team... but the vast, vast majority of the best transfers want to play, and most of the biggest name schools just don't need minutes/roles filled like that due to how well they recruit.

The best mid-major transfers will go high-major, and plenty of high-major transfers will transfer down to mid-major. That's how it's always been, really-- the increase in transfer volume hasn't really changed a great mid-major up transfer's desire for televised spotlight and a high-major down transfer's desire for a larger role in the offense.

Or, to put it another way, last year was the first year of NIL and the transfer portal was the biggest it's ever been... and it was one of the most wide open seasons in terms of number of genuine Final Four contenders that I can recall. I think that trend will more often than not hold true.