Davidson is going to give Duke fits with their off-ball cutting. They're just so well-coached, and Duke just... isn't these days. I do think if we run them off the 3-point line, we've got a good shot, and we've done that most of the season (the last two weeks less so). They'll get layup after layup backdoor, but they have no way of stopping us with their awful defense either. Should be a close one. I'll bet Davidson money line as an emotional hedge, but I think a 55-60ish% chance we get through.

Texas Tech, however, is just a son of a bitch. Virginia's packline defense hurt us in Cameron, and Texas Tech answers the question "what if Virginia was good?" They're just so physical. Duke has not done well this year when they've been punched in the mouth by a team, and Texas Tech is that team. They also have a fantastic coach. The one upside: Texas Tech is not a good shooting team *at all.* If Duke can make 3s, they've got a real shot. (Also, if Notre Dame gets through Alabama, they're the sort of team that can rain 3s over a packline and do our work for us.)

Gonzaga rematch... honestly doesn't concern me as much as Texas Tech does. They're a lot like Duke, in many ways, this year. Lousy with talent. Loves to run if teams will let them. Got caught loafing against inferior talent a number of times. Doesn't really like playing aggressive, physical, athletic teams. Again, big coaching advantage for the Zags, but if Paolo can outclass Chet like he did in November, and Moore/Keels can frustrate Nembhard, then Duke has a real shot at the sweep. I wouldn't *bet* on it, of course, lol, but from a sheer matchup perspective, this isn't really the sort of team that devours Duke unless they're just totally raining 3s or we're just ice cold (both of which are plenty possible). I think Timme's lack of mobility causes problems for their defense against a versatile team like Duke.

Really, I'm just thrilled by the Fullerton matchup. And the harder that first round game is, the less likely the Sweet 16 advancement is. Fullerton wants to play bully ball... but their biggest guy is, like, 6'7. And they want to get fouled a lot, and Duke doesn't really foul (and when you consider the officiating edge I'm sure Duke will have in close games, forget about it). Longwood is a much tougher team than Fullerton for Duke, so I'd be sweating a bit more if we drew them or most of the 14 seeds.