This is going to be a weird one, because Nesmith fans will argue he's the best shooter (or, at worst, top 2) in the draft. And they're quick to mention he shot 52% from 3 last year on over 8 attempts a game... and, to be sure, that's nothing to sneeze at.

That said, last season he only played fourteen games... and only *one* was in conference! He played a grand total of *two* games against KenPom Tier A+B teams last year. Now, granted, he shot 11-18 from 3 in those games, lol. But over two seasons against Tier A+B teams, he averages closer to 36% from 3. Do you think he's that guy? Or do you think he's a surefire 42+% shooter next level, as he suggested he could be in a small/weak sample size this season?

Because if you want him to be a lotto pick-- and because wings are a huuuuuge need for most teams in the NBA, teams will want to think he's one-- you need to think he's the 42+% guy. Because everywhere else, he's fine, not great. He's got some potential off the bounce, not too shifty as a handler/driver but not a liability by any means, a good team defender but not really quick/athletic enough to handler bigger/quicker wings man-to-man... like, if you think he's a 36% shooter, then he's, like, a second rounder at best.

If he ends up in the right place, he could really thrive. Like, if New Orleans keeps JJ Redick around and he teaches up Nesmith? That's your 3-point wing shooter for the next decade. If you put him somewhere where he's thrown to the wolves? He could be playing overseas after his rookie deal ends. Just hard to say. I'd take him more in the 19-24 range based on the potential the stroke provides... but I realize he'll likely go late lottery.