Jae Crowder guards Bron. His only instructions..."try and keep him under 40".


Vogel has shown he can make good adjustments between games, but he is going against Spo, who not only preps his teams well, but will tinker with things when he needs to in game. The Heat are a lot like Houston but their 'rim runner' is a 6' 10" point center, and they have shooters that are not going to shoot you out the game because the coach doesn't just throw his cards on the table and say beat me....he has pieces that he will move in and out of the lineup based on performance. So in that respect, the Heat pose some significant problems for the Lakers. The primary problem for the Heat will be scoring at the rim against the Lakers is going to be hard AF because you have four huge shot blockers. They are going to have to live with mid range shots and threes most of the time....the layup lines they ran against the C's are gone.


The Heat are going to do two things- they are going to press on offense similar to Houston, and they are going to be physical, as Spo is a disciple of Pat Riley. Bron of course, is immune to the physicality, but its going to affect everyone else on the Lakers. This allowed the Heat to beat the Celtics because they were then able to control the boards. Vogel can counter this by starting Dwight, but then how is Dwight going to respond the physical nature of the game. Can he keep his head and stay out of foul trouble? For the sake of this argument, I say no. JaVale has been pushed to the second team, and I don't think Vogel would immediately swap him out...so Dwight will have to be smart. Spo has Olynyk and Meyers Leonard to march out against him to further push him out of his game.

BAM vs. AD- this is the most compelling match up of the series. We have two mobile, skilled big men that can get their own shots and defend. AD of course, is a scorer deluxe- a seven footer that can attack off the dribble and can shoot over everyone....except now he's matched up with a guy who can beat him to spots and interrupt his rhythm. So what does he do? Will he then post Bam and shoot over him (and get fouled repeatedly by various heat players)...Then on defense,
AD can certainly shut down Bam the scoring machine. All those overpowering drives that Bam got on Theis are a thing of the past...so Bam in this series is more the facilitator. In that role, I think Spo is going to try and have Bam pull AD away from the basket. That leaves Bron having to be the rim protector against a team of finishers. Dragic, Herro, Butler and Bam....all great finishers. Vogel has to solve that...


Butler - he will show his whole game this series. The HEAT are not really a Super team, so odds are, this might be dudes only shot, and I think he has some perspective around this as he has played in multiple cities, so he's going to leave it all on the floor.


The Zone - Spo will use it judiciously to stop Laker momentum, and I think if it is used sparingly, it will be effective and can determine the outcome of a couple of games.


HEALTH- this is the final variable. These men have balled out for three months in a compressed schedule that while they haven't had to deal with jet lag and such, they have been in isolation, under pressure to stay isolated to keep from getting sick, playing under a microscope that freed them up in certain ways on the court but comes down to these next two weeks. The Heat are YOUNG, and I think this helps them....battle tested but young. The Lakers are a veteran squad and their most important pieces have a lot of games and minutes under their belt (Bron over 1500 games!). Bron I think is the best conditioned of the bunch and really at this point beyond any superlatives we can heap upon him...but he runs ball with a bunch of mortals. Extraordinary...but mortal. Can they stay healthy and focused and respond to the challenge from this young, nothing to lose bunch of mercenaries? I say that is going to be hard for them at this point, and the Heat, they are too young to know any better than what Pat Riley and Spo have drilled into their heads about the mystique of South Beach.



I think we get a classic series, with the Heat improbably winning in 7.