and it hasn't failed.

For the Blazers, it was guards and nothing else. I saw it coming.
For the Rockets it was rebounding, everyone saw that one coming.
For the Nuggets it was big depth and youth, Lakers have more bodies to roll out and a young talented team that's still figuring it out goes down 3-1 three straight series. I knew Bron wasn't gonna give them life if he got up 3-1.

For the Heat, this is why:
1) Bron is legacy chasing. Wants to cement #1...knows another ring makes it harder to dispute and 1 more after that makes it virtually impossible to discount. Added bonus to beating Riley (you're making the biggest mistake of your career leaving the Heat), Iggy (GState residue) and Jimmy (I don't think they like each other much from the Bulls days).

2) Bron is rested. So much so that he's playing elite level defense...consistently. <--that is a PROBLEM for everyone. Giving him long breaks between series, 4 months off to workout and chill and spend time with his family...might have extended his prime (lol) but also showed him what life would be like when it's all over. I think he wants to get a few more rings and chill at home now (while working on other business and social ventures too).

3) AD will deliver. He'll slightly outplay Bam. I know he's been light on the rebounding but I think that was strategic by Vogel. They don't NEED him for boards all the time (Bron, Dwight, Javale, Rondo are all good rebounders) but the ALWAYS need him to score. Pulling Jokic (slow, foul prone) or Grant (good help defender) out of the paint helped create some of those lanes for LeBron to torch Denver. I do think AD needs to focus on the boards more but as we've seen, it's not absolutely necessary for the Lakers to win.

4) Depth. Rondo and Caruso (who's played very well these playoffs), Bron, Morris, Kuz, AD, Dwight Javale. Miami can't match that. They've been running their core 6 players into the ground (Jimmy, Bam, Dragic, Herro, Duncan, Crowder). Olynyk and Iggy have gotten spot duty for the most part and Nunn/Derrick Jones haven't really played. If Spo elects to use their extended bench, those guys HAVE to play well consistently for it to matter. Which I think is a tall order to expect in the finals when he hasn't used them consistently all playoffs.

5) Experience. The Lakers have 15 rings between the players and the staff. 9 of those rings are from players (Bron-3, Rondo-1, Danny Green-2, Javale-2, JR-1). While the Heat rely heavily on 2 rookies. Jimmy, Dragic, Iggy and Crowder (somewhat) are the only real vets with near finals experience and iggy is the only one with finals experience on the roster. This will matter in certain situations/possessions.

6) My caveat. Jimmy Buckets is my dude and clutch so I'll give the Heat a strong shot at a second win because Jimmy can deliver that. The problem here is he's playing heads up against a player that can do the same (Bron). But if it goes 6, it'll be because Jimmy gutted one out.