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|Topic subject||Such a high ceiling, such a low floor. A bad team *has* to take him.|
2697824, Such a high ceiling, such a low floor. A bad team *has* to take him.|
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-03-19 05:19 PM
Because I think if you're a team like, say, the Cleveland Cavs? You desperately need an All-Star. I think you need to swing for the home run and risk missing rather than settle for a single or double. And in my opinion, there's not a player in this draft after the top four who has the potential to be a star in today's NBA that Cam Reddish possesses.
He's got a great physical profile, is sneakily quicker and more athletic than he looks, and when he's in the zone, he's absolutely deadly. There's a reason he was so heralded coming out of HS-- dude can wreck people in iso and isn't shy about pulling up. He's also a sneakily good defender-- for most of the season, he led Duke in steals. A Duke team with Zion and Tre Jones on it, and *Cam* was leading in steals. He has great timing and uses his length well.
That said, the issues are obvious:
- everyone is noting the motor problem, but it bears repeating: he'd disappear in games. Even with Zion hurt, when everyone assumed Cam would take on a greater role... he was content to just chill on the perimeter until it was time to run an iso for him.
- he is currently not good on the dribble drive. His touch struggles at the rim, he'd charge nearly once a game, and his decision making when running to the basket is questionable, if I'm being polite. Or, to put it another way, when he's going to the basket, 1 time out of 8 he'll make a move that blows your mind... and the other 7, you'll groan.
- he was heralded as Duke's best 3-point shooter, but he wasn't a good 3-point shooter! His stroke seemed very rhythm-dependent-- if he makes his first one, he's making the next three, but if he misses the first, he's missing the next four. Honestly reminded me of Bradley Beal's performance as a shooter in college, where he passes the eye test for the most part but the numbers didn't translate. Combining that with the other things... is scary.
I think if a bad team doesn't take him early as its home run swing, he could take a considerable fall, because there are a number of players who are better right today than Reddish. Reddish is, right today, a good defender but an inconsistent shooter, a bad passer, and an iffy ballhandler with motor issues. He's like Nassir Little with good defense.
I sort of suspect a draft night tumble might be good for him, actually. Because I can just as easily see the "how in the WORLD did this All-Star slip to 11?" narrative as I can the "why in the WORLD did my team pick this bum top 6?" narrative. He's definitely going to need the right motivator and the right fit. I'd LOVE to see him in Cleveland, since John Beilein is a master player developer, or in Atlanta, another spot where young players have done very well recently.
But yeah, a bad team can't risk him becoming an All-Star and pass on him, imo. It's like that guy who's been destroying on Jeopardy-- when he hits a Daily Double, he bets big. If you're choosing between Cam Reddish, whose ceiling is, realistically, Paul George, and Coby White/Rui Hachimura, who are better players today but whose ceilings are easily more capped, I don't think a bad team can afford to pass. (It's the same reason why I think Nassir Little is a fringe lotto prospect, despite not being good at really anything right now-- because you ultimately can't play it safe in the draft if you're a small market team or a team that doesn't consistently contend.)