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Forum nameOkay Sports
Topic subjectThe Official 2019 NBA Prospect Thread 4 Thruthiness and Justivity
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=8&topic_id=2697432
2697432, The Official 2019 NBA Prospect Thread 4 Thruthiness and Justivity
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:54 PM
Less than a month until the draft. You know the drill.

I'll list the prospects, you list your thoughts, as detailed or as basic ("he'll be good"/"he'll be sorry") as you want. As meticulously bias-free as possible or as blindly agenda-driven as you want.

Get on record before these guys play a single NBA game as to how you think they'll pan out. Stake claims, "buy stock," etc.

2697433, Zion Williamson
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:54 PM
2697497, Beast...from day 1
Posted by auragin_boi, Thu May-30-19 02:51 PM
Ceiling: Vince Barkley or Charles Carter. Dominant force on a title team.

Floor: Blake Griffin but shorter.
2697521, We know he’s a beast offensively but can he defend at the NBA level?
Posted by ThaTruth, Thu May-30-19 05:08 PM
2697525, Absolutely. Lateral quickness, timing, explosive leaper..
Posted by Beezo, Thu May-30-19 05:14 PM
I thought he defended pretty well at Duke.
2697526, RE: Absolutely. Lateral quickness, timing, explosive leaper..
Posted by ThaTruth, Thu May-30-19 05:18 PM
>I thought he defended pretty well at Duke.

I thought we were talking about the NBA. Will he defend on the wing? In the post? I know there’s not a lot of prolific post players in the league right now but still. A lot of it depends who he’s playing with.
2697532, He’ll be a fine defender in any league with his physical gifts.
Posted by Beezo, Thu May-30-19 07:02 PM
>I thought we were talking about the NBA. Will he defend on the
>wing? In the post? I know there’s not a lot of prolific post
>players in the league right now but still. A lot of it depends
>who he’s playing with.
2697595, lol stop it.
Posted by BrooklynWHAT, Fri May-31-19 08:07 AM
2697599, RE: lol stop it.
Posted by ThaTruth, Fri May-31-19 08:36 AM
ok may bad Zion will be all-star every year first ballot HOF'er with zero flaws.
2697571, RE: Zion Williamson
Posted by absence, Fri May-31-19 12:17 AM
Perennial all star - on merit, not fan vote. Showed a lot more skill than I thought he had. And he plays hard all the time. Worst case scenario he's Julius Randle with better playmaking ability. Best case, Barkley level HOF. Most likely similar to peak Blake Griffin.
2697588, HoF
Posted by bshelly, Fri May-31-19 05:25 AM
2697818, GOAT
Posted by BrooklynWHAT, Mon Jun-03-19 02:43 PM
okay not the GOAT lol.
but he gonna be an allstar mainstay, HOF, fan favorite for the next 10 years at least.

that boy is bad.
2697847, No additional hype necessary. He's a star.
Posted by Frank Longo, Tue Jun-04-19 10:16 AM
He's like Draymond Green if you added elite athleticism and strength... and honestly maybe even upped the motor a notch or two.

Never stops moving. Dives for everything. Pressed beyond belief.
Jumps out of the building. Combined with his inhuman strength for his age, and he's a cannonball.
Terrific defender for his age. Great instincts, great speed, great IQ, great effort.
ELITE passer for his position. He uncorked a few of the best passes I've seen at the college level last year. Willingly creates for others.
Unlike some stars, absurdly coachable, humble, and willing to work.

Even at the next level, he's a matchup nightmare. He's going to blow past players as strong as him, and he's going to back down players who can deal with his quickness.

I could nitpick. He currently has the Julius-Randle-in-college thing of "because I can bully players on offense, I will"-- which would occasionally get him into trouble and/or frustration when he'd get stripped/whacked without calls. Zion will get past this (as did Randle), but I imagine it may cause his turnovers/efficiency to be a little lower than maybe people immediately expect out of the gate. Also, his shot release is currently *really* flat-- although he was also Duke's best 3-point shooter in ACC play at 37%, so maybe I shouldn't be as concerned? He's no Ben Simmons, but I'd guess he won't ever really top, say, Bron's career shooting stats of 34% from 3 and 74% from the stripe. Good enough to keep opposing teams honest *enough*, but bad enough that teams will still be happy to let him shoot until he can prove he can take over games outside of the paint.

That's all so nitpicky tho. He's easily the best prospect since Anthony Davis. Just a unique talent. I'd imagine he'd do Blake Griffin-esque numbers more or less right away-- only with more steals and blocks. Perennial All-Star.
2697884, RE: Zion Williamson
Posted by MarkyMark, Wed Jun-05-19 07:34 AM
TLDR: Star

I like that Blake Griffin's name keeps coming up as I think that's the trajectory his career takes. Zion will make an immediate impact and be an athletic marvel. I think he starts to develop and mature his game earlier in his career than Blake does - refining his ball handling and passing and becoming a better shooter. Only thing that I can see holding him back is health (no jinx-o).

PS - The last two prospects I was this sure about becoming a star were Andrew Wiggins and Markelle Fultz, so...
2698102, HOF'er, likely ROY but not a lock (Morant). Needs some adjustments
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:32 PM
I think at Duke it was tough to reconcile his being a man among teenagers and the fact that he had a loaded team, but he let me down a bit in not being more of a team player. He tried to do things on his own any time things got tough, I thought, and didn't always make the guys around him better or even let them play to their own level. Some of that plays in his favor with the shorter clock and quicker developing plays of the NBA, but I do think he's got to find the medium between doing it all and making it all happen. Physically he's more than ready, he's the most NBA-ready physical specimen we've seen since Wilt. He has a lot of skills already and the ability to round out what's lacking. Phenomenal prospect.
2699855, HOF
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:33 AM
2697434, Ja Morant
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:54 PM
2697499, Talented but...
Posted by auragin_boi, Thu May-30-19 02:54 PM
I can't call it on his potential.

I think he's on that Buddy Hield trajectory (not his game but career). Heralded out of college but might take a few seasons to get his footing.

2697527, Impact player from Day 1
Posted by Beezo, Thu May-30-19 05:44 PM
2697522, All-Star, the kid can play
Posted by ThaTruth, Thu May-30-19 05:08 PM
2697578, RE: Ja Morant
Posted by absence, Fri May-31-19 12:41 AM
Multiple time all star. Only saw a few of his conference tourney and NCAA tourney games, but hes certainly worthy of the hype to me. Great athlete and playmaker. Shot didnt look broken like a ben simmons or lonzo ball. I think hell be able to refine it to be at least be someone you have to guard at the 3 pt line making him really difficult to defend. Seemed to have the tools to be a top flight PG defender as well.
2697653, With the news about the
Posted by Numba_33, Sat Jun-01-19 01:04 PM
'minor' surgery he's going to have on his knee, is there any chance he'll slide pass the number two slot?

And I'm not asking this simply because I'm a Knicks fan because honestly, the surgery news is a bit of flag to me; dunno if its enough to be a red flag though. A bit odd that a MRI isn't enough to diagnose whatever this issue is with his knee and this arthroscopic surgery is necessary. Hopefully this isn't a harbinger of bad things for him though, where ever he lands.
2697806, Elite, multi-ASG type prospect with some mid-major caveats.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-03-19 12:51 PM
I watched him a lot last year, and it's insane to project his game like this, as it's unfair to the kid, but he really is like you took Russell Westbrook's game and gave it Trae Young's passing. I mean, that's a fucking BONKERS thing to say, but it's true. High motor, incredible speed/athleticism, god-level vision, okay enough shooter (not great but a better shooter than Russy tbh). Everything's there for a stud.

That said, the mid-major competition *should* be a concern imo. The biggest reason why his comparisons are all so superlative is because he beasted against shitty comp. Not to say he can't be a Damian Lillard, and not to say he'll dip on the court as hard as, say, Cameron Payne-- I think his floor is a good starter/playmaker on a good team. Because, again, you can't teach vision like Morant's. But Morant committed a *lot* of turnovers. Now normally I'd say "he's young, he'll learn"-- but if your TO rate is that high against the OVC?

Also, I think his strength is the #1 reason the Westbrook comparisons are goofy today, because Morant was driving into the paint and flexing over string-bean and/or slow-poke OVC bigs. The second he hits the grown man strength that NBA paint defenders will provide, he'll be in some trouble-- so his mid-range game/floater game/3-point game *have* to improve.

I think that FSU tournament game is going to give some people some serious false expectations about his 3-point shooting-- he was WET that game like he's literally never been in his career, and a big reason why he was shooting as much as he was was because he didn't want to run into FSU's grown man strength. So he needs a good 15-25 pounds of muscle, cuz right now I'm pretty sure he's 170ish. But then again, he's got roughly the same build as De'Aaron Fox, and he's killing it already at age 21. So maybe that shouldn't be as big a concern as I'm making it out to be. Lillard and Curry rose from the mid-major ranks because they were super-wet shooters. PGs who get drafted from mid-majors who can't shoot-- Payne and Elfrid Payton come to mind-- tend to struggle a bit more. Morant's better than both of those guys... but again, it's worth noting.

If he gets that strength going and diversifies his shooting game some? Yeah, you've got a multi-year ASG type of guy-- in a draft class without much PG talent, so that's a major score and a big reason to take him over some guys with safer floors below him. Worst case scenario, you get a terrific playmaker, which, at #2 for a team balls deep in a rebuild, isn't a bad thing at all.
2698104, whoa i read zero replies and we had essentially the same take
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:34 PM
that makes me feel good because i only saw maybe six games and it sounds like you watched a lot more.
2698103, Pretty high floor, just above-average ceiling maybe
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:33 PM
He's got a little Russy and a little Trae Young in him. He's a great player for a bad team. Is he a great player for a great team? Hopefully he gets the opportunity to prove that he is.
2699856, a cyse and less than a handful of AS games
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:33 AM
2697435, RJ Barrett
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:54 PM
2697490, Mamba Mentality, for better and/or for worse.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 02:21 PM
The kid is an absolute dog-- nothing NyQuil about him. Lives for the big moment. Didn't always come through last season, but never shied away from the ball in his hands, never shied away from contact. Combining what we saw last year with what he did at the U-19s two years back and, yeah, there's a reason people thought he was the #1 overall before the season started. Kid had massive star potential, and he loves the lights. He also *never* stops fighting, even if your team is down twenty plus (take note, Knicks).

The shooting isn't great, obviously-- he has potential here, as he showed in a few monster outings last season, but he can get out of rhythm, slow down his release, and really lay some bricks too. I suspect this could improve with time-- he was, after all, supposed to be a *high school senior* last season, and instead he was a college All-American.

I think people don't remotely appreciate enough his rebounding (he gets after the glass, especially on the defensive end, for a SF) and his passing (top 250 in the country in assist rate, top 10 in the ACC). People cyse "point forwards" too often, but with the right coach, this isn't an impossibility with him.

He needs to tighten his handle still, he needs to get better with his right, he needs to improve his defensive consistency-- but these are all freshmen problems for the most part. He's an obvious Top 3 pick, an obvious multi-year All-Star ceiling kind of guy. Worst case scenario, if I'm trying to remove bias, you get, like, a lefty Ricky Davis at his peak, someone who does it all but probably guns more than his team needs, a big stat guy on a team that struggles somewhat.

But I wouldn't bet against RJ. Guys with that amount of Dog in them don't bust often, imo.
2697506, Ricky Davis seems fair. He's less erratic and smarter though
Posted by auragin_boi, Thu May-30-19 03:04 PM
Not as naturally explosive though.

I think RJ shines as a point forward. Maybe as a secondary ball handler. And as he learns to shoot smarter, could be a beast.

At worst, he'll be a Monta Ellis type gunner.
2697817, For sure. Ellis is also a decent comparison in terms of game.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-03-19 02:36 PM
>At worst, he'll be a Monta Ellis type gunner.

I could easily see him putting up 18+ points a game for over a decade without ever fully grasping onto his mega-star potential, much like Ellis-- though I think Barrett's added height and skill inside should help him in that comparison.
2697509, Barring injury, should average at least 18 ppg for at least 8 years
Posted by TheRealBillyOcean, Thu May-30-19 03:28 PM
Ceiling: Michael Redd
Floor: Will Barton
2697523, Rudy Gay, solid player, long career, but not a star
Posted by ThaTruth, Thu May-30-19 05:14 PM
2697572, RE: Rudy Gay, solid player, long career, but not a star
Posted by absence, Fri May-31-19 12:20 AM
Agreed. Seemed to be able to draw fouls, but not be able to finish consistently in the paint. Second option offensively on a bad team, third option on a good team.
2697589, One and done bust factory
Posted by bshelly, Fri May-31-19 05:27 AM
2698105, Fuck the Dookie nervousness, he is gonna be good
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:35 PM
Has the glue guy qualities like Battier but is likely to be a bigger star. He is going to be at worst a good player for good teams, at best a second-tier star (in a league where third-tier stars are making the HOF now).
2699857, HOF
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:34 AM
2700070, could be a great complementary player but ball-stops too much
Posted by will_5198, Fri Jun-21-19 06:03 PM
for a guy who can't shoot. if he can learn to defer he has the overall profile to win games, but that's never been shown.

(I don't watch the NBA)
2697436, Jarrett Culver
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:55 PM
2697593, Solid NBA wing player
Posted by Dr Claw, Fri May-31-19 07:38 AM
not sure who or what he matches up to. On the right team, absolutely the right player

on a team that's in The Process... well, we'll see
2697867, Star potential. I'm a big fan.
Posted by Frank Longo, Tue Jun-04-19 03:40 PM
Basically take Evan Turner, a fantastic do-it-all player in college. Now add 6 inches to his wingspan and make him an NBA All-Defense potential type of defender. Now you have Jarrett Culver. He executes PnR magnificently, rarely makes stupid mistakes, is a lockdown defender, and, while he isn't a good shooter, shoots *just* well enough to keep defenses honest. He's not an elite athlete but at 6'6 with a 6'11+ wingspan, he fits the profile really well.

My concerns with him are pretty basic young guy concerns: he needs to fill out more, he needs to work on his jumper, he needs to prove he can be as adept at creating space and running PnR at the next level as he was in a very good Big 12 conference. He's the type of guy that, if he got hurt and lost some quickness, would really need to start proving himself as a shooter to stay improving upon his potential. (Again, see Evan Turner here.)

But Turner at his peak did, what, 14/5/4 somewhere in there? I can easily see Culver doing this by Year 2 or 3. He's also one of those guys who has a great rep for working hard, being coachable, etc. If you want to look at a player to try to peg "the next Kawhi," a guy who couldn't shoot well in college but if he suddenly could shoot 40% from 3 in the NBA would be a real multi-year ASG type to have to deal with? Culver is that guy imo. I wouldn't let him slip past 4.
2698108, His frame is nice and projectable. No concerns there for me.
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:39 PM
His defense should be very solid in the pros. I wonder if he is a guy who will play mostly in the flow of an offense or if he will be more iso-heavy. Hard to tell for me based on his college career. Good p n r guy, solid spot up shooter. I think he'll find a way to contribute on offense but are we talking 15 a night? 20? 25? I can't call it, personally.
2698107, Could go either way on him, really
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:38 PM
He played in a defensive system that didn't feature him as much as some programs would have and he has a lot of skill plus an NBA body for his position. That makes it sound like he could be one of these guys who exceeds his status as a collegian in the pros. But he also seems a little stiff and had a tendency to fall back at times. Didn't do much for me in the tourney and I saw a couple of the games live. Floor, very solid bench player, ceiling a Jimmy Butler level star.
2699858, a cog.
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:34 AM
2697437, Darius Garland
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:55 PM
2697481, No clue. Didn’t see any of his games before injury.
Posted by Beezo, Thu May-30-19 01:38 PM
2698109, Impossible to say IMHO
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:42 PM
Even the scouts seem to be stepping on each other here. How much of a distributor is he? He sounds kind of Kyrie-esque but a dozen games for Vandy seems like an even smaller sample size than we had with Kyrie. No idea, but I'm interested to see if he slips or rises as he seems to be in that volatile part of the mid to late lottery where guys are really jockeying around now.
2698115, I think Diet Coke Kyrie is a fair assessment.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-06-19 04:51 PM
From the Lotto post: "Garland: Easy to fall in love with him. Best handles in the class. Might be the quickest PG in the class end to end-- certainly competes with Morant in that regard (though Morant is longer and far more athletic). Potentially the best 3-point shooter in the class as well. Not a *great* athlete, not terribly strong, and not currently a tremendous creator for others with consistency. Def will have to work on that assist-to-turnover ratio... but then again, a lot of the better PGs in the league today came in with a similar sort of question. Defense, he showed good effort-- not strong enough or long enough to be a stopper, but a good motor guy on that end.

It's *really* hard to say what he'll be because our sample size was so small, but I think his upside is obvious. I think his worst case scenario is, like, Diet Coke CJ McCollum-- someone who never really becomes a PG but still finds a niche in this league as a guy who, at worst, can go off scoring any given night. Best case scenario, you've got someone like Lillard or Kyrie but a step or two down-- or perhaps more accurately a Jeff Teague with a better jumpshot-- someone who likely will have bumps in the road as he learns how to create for others but who ends up a natural guy with the ball in his hands as the game winds down."

Yeah, I definitely think he's got the goods, health permitting. He's just not really a true PG-- I think he'd have to work really hard to get to the 6-7 APG where Lillard and Kyrie currently live. Feels more like a 4-5 APG guy, tbh... but also a possible 20 PPG guy. I'd take him and worry about distribution stuff later.
2698142, more or less what i thought, doesn't sound great to me.
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 07:58 PM
then again past a certain point there are a lot of coin flip type guys, which is the nature of the draft during this era where most of the first rounders are 19 years old.
2699859, best PG
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:34 AM
2697438, DeAndre Hunter
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:55 PM
2697583, RE: DeAndre Hunter
Posted by absence, Fri May-31-19 12:59 AM
Looks like the prototypical 3 and D wing. Might not ever make an all star team, but will be a sought after by any good team - like a current Igoudala level player - not that their games are identical.
2697816, I keep coming back to a Bruce Bowen comparison, tbh.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-03-19 02:33 PM
All the comparisons I keep seeing are bad. Here's the situation with Hunter:

- outstanding outside shooter with good 3s/midrangers as well.
- SUPERB defender, the best in the draft-- a guy who genuinely could make multiple all-defense teams.
- not a good creator with the ball in his hands-- much better at the catch-and-shoot game than the dribble-drive game.
- decent athlete, but not the type of athlete that normally gets the "all-defense potential" hype. Hunter's defense comes from his strength, footwork, and sky-high IQ.

Most of the comparisons I've seen either sell his defensive potential short or hype up his athleticism too much. So I'm going to go with Bruce Bowen. His floor is a Bruce Bowen type that has good shooting and good defense, without ever really getting great. His ceiling is a Bruce Bowen type that scores double digits a game spreading the floor and makes multiple all-defense teams.

Still, with the game being more and more reliant on versatility, I think Hunter is a major asset, and I think his upside is being sold short in some scouting reports. We've seen plenty of kids with freak athleticism disappoint, especially at shooting and defense, but who get drafted highly exclusively on versatility potential. Here's a guy who's a great shooter, great defender, and a great IQ player. I'm not going to overthink it by sweating how quickly he does the shuttle run. I'd start considering him as high as fifth, and if he goes anywhere lower than eighth, he'll be considered a massive steal.
2698112, Good player for a good team, not a guy I'd invest a high pick in though
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:48 PM
maybe if atlanta doesn't move up he could be a good pick for them at 8 or 10. i've seen some mocks having him higher. he seems like a guy who can do a lot of things but in the pros you've got to specialize some. he can guard all positions, ok, which one will he guard most effectively? is he a spot up guy? i like his game but i don't love it for a team that needs a franchise-altering guy.
2699860, generic OVR 79 2k guy
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:35 AM
2697439, Cam Reddish
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:55 PM
2697484, ZZzzZZzZz....
Posted by Beezo, Thu May-30-19 01:52 PM
2697500, K (and his team mates) held him back
Posted by auragin_boi, Thu May-30-19 02:54 PM
Will actually be a decent pro. Might actually develop into a star.
2697514, I agree, they Kevin Loved him at Duke
Posted by Dr Claw, Thu May-30-19 04:02 PM
2697516, Ehhhhh
Posted by TheRealBillyOcean, Thu May-30-19 04:09 PM
Ceiling: Poor man’s Rudy Gay
Floor: Demarr Johnson
2697577, RE: Cam Reddish
Posted by absence, Fri May-31-19 12:35 AM
Might be the biggest coin flip of the draft. Type of player that could get a GM fired total bust if drafted too high, but has a Joe Johnson type consistent borderline all-star ceiling. If youve seen him play, obviously needs work handling the ball/decision making and needs to get stronger. Got a lot of respect for his maturity in ceding to the way to Zion and Barrett offensively yet for the most part being able to stay focused on the defensive end. I think hes worthy of a late lotto pick (10+) and will probably have a solid role player type career.
2697590, Better pro than Barrett
Posted by bshelly, Fri May-31-19 05:27 AM
2697824, Such a high ceiling, such a low floor. A bad team *has* to take him.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-03-19 05:19 PM
Because I think if you're a team like, say, the Cleveland Cavs? You desperately need an All-Star. I think you need to swing for the home run and risk missing rather than settle for a single or double. And in my opinion, there's not a player in this draft after the top four who has the potential to be a star in today's NBA that Cam Reddish possesses.

He's got a great physical profile, is sneakily quicker and more athletic than he looks, and when he's in the zone, he's absolutely deadly. There's a reason he was so heralded coming out of HS-- dude can wreck people in iso and isn't shy about pulling up. He's also a sneakily good defender-- for most of the season, he led Duke in steals. A Duke team with Zion and Tre Jones on it, and *Cam* was leading in steals. He has great timing and uses his length well.

That said, the issues are obvious:
- everyone is noting the motor problem, but it bears repeating: he'd disappear in games. Even with Zion hurt, when everyone assumed Cam would take on a greater role... he was content to just chill on the perimeter until it was time to run an iso for him.
- he is currently not good on the dribble drive. His touch struggles at the rim, he'd charge nearly once a game, and his decision making when running to the basket is questionable, if I'm being polite. Or, to put it another way, when he's going to the basket, 1 time out of 8 he'll make a move that blows your mind... and the other 7, you'll groan.
- he was heralded as Duke's best 3-point shooter, but he wasn't a good 3-point shooter! His stroke seemed very rhythm-dependent-- if he makes his first one, he's making the next three, but if he misses the first, he's missing the next four. Honestly reminded me of Bradley Beal's performance as a shooter in college, where he passes the eye test for the most part but the numbers didn't translate. Combining that with the other things... is scary.

I think if a bad team doesn't take him early as its home run swing, he could take a considerable fall, because there are a number of players who are better right today than Reddish. Reddish is, right today, a good defender but an inconsistent shooter, a bad passer, and an iffy ballhandler with motor issues. He's like Nassir Little with good defense.

I sort of suspect a draft night tumble might be good for him, actually. Because I can just as easily see the "how in the WORLD did this All-Star slip to 11?" narrative as I can the "why in the WORLD did my team pick this bum top 6?" narrative. He's definitely going to need the right motivator and the right fit. I'd LOVE to see him in Cleveland, since John Beilein is a master player developer, or in Atlanta, another spot where young players have done very well recently.

But yeah, a bad team can't risk him becoming an All-Star and pass on him, imo. It's like that guy who's been destroying on Jeopardy-- when he hits a Daily Double, he bets big. If you're choosing between Cam Reddish, whose ceiling is, realistically, Paul George, and Coby White/Rui Hachimura, who are better players today but whose ceilings are easily more capped, I don't think a bad team can afford to pass. (It's the same reason why I think Nassir Little is a fringe lotto prospect, despite not being good at really anything right now-- because you ultimately can't play it safe in the draft if you're a small market team or a team that doesn't consistently contend.)
2697846, Clarification re: his motor:
Posted by Frank Longo, Tue Jun-04-19 10:03 AM
"Motor" may not be the right word, because as Ben Swain pointed out on Twitter (and as I alluded to in the previous post), he worked hard on defense consistently. Even when he'd be content to stand around on offense, he'd be making a difference on the defensive end. I know this supports the theory some have that Cam's offensive issues were largely due to a very new role and not due to a lack of killer instinct. I'm not 100% sold on that theory... but it's worth amending the idea that his motor is bad, because I feel like that implies a lack of effort on the whole, and that isn't true. It was just on offense.
2697885, RE: Cam Reddish
Posted by MarkyMark, Wed Jun-05-19 07:43 AM
He's went to HS and played AAU ball in Philly area, so I've saw him play some live before he got to Duke. He was a supreme talent with an advanced offensive game, I am utterly confused about his one year with Coach K.

I think he has the widest gap between floor and ceiling of any of the top prospects. It would not surprise me if he ended up being the best/2nd best player from this draft or if he is a complete bust. That said I can't "un-remember" what I saw from him as a kid so I think he ends up being a solid starter in the league for years, 18-20 PPG maybe in his prime but probably never makes an all-star game.
2698106, Not in love with him. Too much bust potential for me.
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:36 PM
2699861, HOF
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:35 AM
2700071, how was he not eating as Duke's third option?
Posted by will_5198, Fri Jun-21-19 06:04 PM
hard pass
2697440, Coby White
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:55 PM
2697496, Better version of Ty Lawson
Posted by auragin_boi, Thu May-30-19 02:50 PM
2697849, Best case scenario: Jamal Crawford.
Posted by Frank Longo, Tue Jun-04-19 11:11 AM
Worst case scenario: ... I don't know, Diet Coke Brandon Knight?

Shoot first, ask questions later.

Here were my comments in the Lotto post, comparing White to Garland:

"Like Garland, a quick PG who'll fire from anywhere and who probably scores better than he creates. Shifty ballhandler. A genius in transition. A terrific shooter for the most part, though I'm not in love with his release point. Also not a great athlete-- Garland probably the better athlete, but White *definitely* is stronger. Like Garland, questionable decision making-- I saw way more Coby game tape, obviously, and he's a guy who can shoot you in or out of a game. Example: end of the first Duke game, White was really starting to jack questionable shots in a game where he struggled against Tre Jones. White had the ball in his hands late in a key possession, and I turned to my friends and say, "We've won." Sure enough, White took an awful shot, missed badly, Duke wins the game.

Hard to hold that against White tbh-- a freshman willing to take those shots is a commodity, honestly. Also hard to compare him to Garland since Garland has so much less game tape-- also, White wasn't the prospect Garland was and wasn't even expected to be OAD, so does that mean he played above his talent this year or was he just too slept on in HS? I'd personally peg White's ceiling as, and I'm not the first person to say this, a Diet Coke Gilbert Arenas. Never the most efficient guy, but a terror when he's hot, and if he got on the right team, he'd be outstanding. Floor is maybe... I don't know, a more aggressive Greivis Vasquez? I think he's deserving of a Top 10 pick, at worst."

After revisiting Coby's stats, I'm less sold on comparisons to guys like Vasquez, because Vasquez was definitely more of a creator than White. Even if Greivis isn't sinking shots, he's still giving you a strong A:TO and setting guys up, whereas if White isn't hitting shots at the next level, he's probably more of a liability. Arenas certainly wasn't a real creator in college, but he got there in the pros, doing 6-7 APG for years, and I'm, again, not overly convinced that's White's game. The more I think about it, the more he seems like one of those sparkplug combo scorers like a Crawford or a Lou Williams. He's not an especially great passer/playmaker except in transition-- he's fine in PnR, but no better than the above mentioned guys-- and he's not ever going to be even a decent NBA defender (he has good height but T-rex arms), so teams will likely be bringing in White specifically to score first, second, and third.

My fear is that, if he goes to Chicago, they need him to be a PG first and foremost to feed the other mouths, and I could easily see him doing early numbers in the 1:1 A:TO range. I feel like he'd be better off the bench than he'd be alongside LaVine... then again, if they're both hitting high percentages, maybe it wouldn't matter.
2698873, I like him on the Wiz as a backup for Brad.
Posted by B.J.S.301, Wed Jun-12-19 08:56 PM
Dude can score.
2698118, Like his length and ability to change gears. That's about it
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:54 PM
Pretty good player but not a guy I'd be thrilled with in the upper or even middle part of the lotto
2699862, sorry
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:35 AM
2700073, I like him. nice combo guard who can get to the rack.
Posted by will_5198, Fri Jun-21-19 06:06 PM
2700083, While this is true, it's largely in transition.
Posted by Frank Longo, Sat Jun-22-19 11:06 AM
His percentages at the rim in halfcourt, along with his attempts at the rim in halfcourt, are notably down from his overall numbers, largely because he's so incredibly elite in transition with a full head of steam, but once he's slowed into running sets, he is far less effective at shaking his man and far more inclined to chuck up a jumper. It'll be interesting to see whether he improves at that with a more spread court in the pros.
2700095, I definitely think he will
Posted by will_5198, Sat Jun-22-19 08:36 PM
>It'll be
>interesting to see whether he improves at that with a more
>spread court in the pros.

he is built for NBA pace + space; no more junk college defenses and zones to clog lanes. if he was a purer shooter and a little longer defensively he would've been top 3.
2697441, Rui Hachimura
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:56 PM
2697591, RE: Rui Hachimura
Posted by electricflower, Fri May-31-19 05:53 AM
next kawhi, hope the Spurs draft him
2698110, LOVE his potential, this is a guy who's still adapting to the game
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:44 PM
Very sexy pick to me, I wouldn't grab him in the top 5 but anywhere past that I'd give him a long look. He's got more growth potential than even some younger guys in the draft in terms of his court sense and total game. Could be a real versatile, complete player. He's the type of wing that a team with a prolific guard could really use.
2698120, I've said all year he's a Top 5-6 guy, but I have a few concerns.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-06-19 05:13 PM
The ceiling is there for a beast. Great body, strength, arms, etc. Athleticism is very good. Potential is all there.

But a few concerns:

1. Much of his scoring was on post-ups... against the WCC. If you take his stats and efficiencies against the best non-WCC opponents (Duke, UNC, Tennessee, FSU, Baylor, Texas Tech), they dip hard. Mainly because, while you'll still be an effective bully against good college teams with that body, you're way *less* effective. His mid-ranger is okay, and his floater is sublime, but he has to be able to stretch in the NBA. And while his small sample size is promising, it also feels misleading-- he can't be shooting 3s in the NBA willy-nilly day 1. At all.

2. Same concerns on defense. He *struggled* on defense against the best teams. In the Duke game, Duke came back and nearly won how? By running switches until someone was on Rui, and then they'd drive at Rui every single time. The potential is there, but we say that every year about guys with good athleticism, length, strength, whatever. Right today, dude would be a net negative defender in the NBA, because he was at best an okay defender in the WCC.

3. He definitely would take games off. Again, new to the sport, many of the games weren't expected to be close, Lord knows other players on elite teams took at least halves off... but when his motor isn't engaged, he can definitely disappear. Which... you don't want in a top 5 pick, especially one from a bad conference.

If you asked me, I'd still take him in that 6-9 range (nice), which is higher than most, but it's lower than I expected to see him be by season's end. His ceiling is something along the lines of Paul Millsap... but Millsap has been a bamma since Day 1. Rui needs to embrace that to maximize potential and be more than Just A Guy in the league.
2698147, Is he Giannis lite or a dinky copy?
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 08:13 PM
We'll see how much stronger he can get, he won't bully people like Giannis but he can punish smaller guards and wings off switches already and I think he can reach the level where he can demand a bigger defender (at which point he can maybe create a mismatch with his dribble penetration and slashing instead).

Defense I think he will pan out quite nicely. I think your #2 and #3 are related. Some of his defensive issues are technique, many are just staying engaged. He has the tools to become a great defender and the competition and stakes should motivate him in the pros. Again he isn't a guy who has lived and breathed basketball his whole life and that's got to be taken into consideration here.

I also like him in the back half of the top 10, maybe even the middle. I'd put him clearly behind the top 3 guys but that's about it, maybe Culver also. Obviously if you had the intel that you could trade back from 5 and still get him, you'd take the asset, if not that's where I'd start looking at him as a possibility.
2699863, aight...gonna be a spur or celtic no matter what
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:36 AM
2697442, Bol Bol
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:57 PM
2697502, If he juices like Giannis, can be an amazing talent
Posted by auragin_boi, Thu May-30-19 02:59 PM
kinda skinny to dominate the NBA like he was initially at Oregon.

In 4 seasons, we'll see if he's built for this. If he is...will be very dangerous for opponents.
2697845, ... yeah, I'd be too scared to draft him.
Posted by Frank Longo, Tue Jun-04-19 10:01 AM
I mean, yes, the unicorn potential is there, so at some point, a team that can afford to stash him should. But it's going to take SO much for him to pan out. Because while he's a good shot blocker and a good 3-point shooter...

- he has a truly awful motor. Worst in the draft. I saw him play in person in HS and it was the same thing-- he'd make a great play, then have zero impact on the next ten minutes of play. He won't jump, he won't run, and God knows he won't dive on the floor for a loose ball.
- he's an awful defender on the whole. Blown by if he's anywhere other than the paint. And it's not just lack of lateral speed, it's lack of effort.
- he's very turnover prone. I'll give him the "he's young" here-- but combine that with his poor effort, and I don't see this fixing easily.

I'd say the odds of him being the next Thon Maker are waaaaaay higher than the odds of him being the next Giannis. By a lot. A lot a lot. It's not impossible, so again, someone should roll the dice... but he needs an absurd amount of development. AND that assumes he stays healthy, which is also a big question mark.
2698111, Super high ceiling, pretty low floor. My emotional favorite in this draft
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:46 PM
He could be a Porzingis type weapon, or his body could fall apart completely. I don't just say that because of the injury last year. I have followed him since he was 14. Very strange body makeup, much like his father, but he is obviously much more mobile, skilled, etc than Manute was. He's got the potential to be that unicorn type guy GMs drool over, he's also got the potential to be a wasted pick. I'd grab him once the blue chips are off the board though. I've seen mocks with him in the mid to low teens. That's a steal. I'd start looking at him around 8/10.
2699864, no idea...pass. dunno if he likes playing. might get a check and chill
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:37 AM
2697443, Brandon Clarke
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:57 PM
2698069, Jordan Bell 2.0. I'm high on him.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-06-19 01:21 PM
So Zion smashed the college record for PER this year... but Brandon Clarke *also* broke the previous college record. He's that good. Super bouncy, elite leaper. Monster on the glass, elite shot blocker, very versatile defender, great finisher, high energy, high motor. Not huge, not a huge wingspan, but his big time athleticism and elite sense of timing more than makes up for that.

He can't really shoot, certainly isn't an offensive threat away from the rim right now... but shooting 69% from the FT line (nice) is better or close to some of the other guys drafted above him. Besides, he's not a guy you play for his diverse offensive skill set. You play him to ramp up the defense, ramp up the energy, and improve your team.

If he developed an outside shot, I'd be really tempted to cyse him as a guy with All-Star potential. (I'd say the same for Bell, tbh.) For now, he's simply a terrific team player who can help any NBA team right away.
2698114, I like his game, especially in this environment
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:50 PM
You look at guys like Looney and Bell in GS, he fits that mold, actually I think he is better than those guys coming out of college. Very nice player who can turn it on in big moments. If he falls to a competitive team, that's a great mid first rounder. Not sure where he is projecting these days.
2699865, a cyse...he's a second round talent. just plays smart
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:37 AM
2697444, Jaxson Hayes
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:57 PM
2698152, I'll take some of his stock. Intriguing. I love late bloomers. Top 10-12
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 08:41 PM
My attraction to late bloomers has sometimes worked out (webber, giannis, embiid, et al) and sometimes not (romain sato, jason thompson, etc).

I see mocks putting this guy at the end of the lotto. I would look at him higher than that and wouldn't be surprised if he climbs up a board that has some guys with question marks in most top 10s. To me he has a very high ceiling and not a terribly low floor.

He can really run the floor and he can block shots. His other big man abilities are lacking, not much of a post player, just OK catching the ball in the paint with traffic, etc. Not surprising given that he's sprouted up damn near a foot since he started playing varsity basketball in HS. But he can get up for lobs, he'll develop into a solid offensive rebound/putback guy and he might be able to do more on offense.

A team will need patience to develop him but at least you can understand the deficiencies he has. His combination of height/length/athletic ability is appealing. Will he be a guy with no position and clear strength or will he be a guy who can effectively defend play/defend three positions? It could go either way but again there aren't many sure bets here, especially guys who have upside on top of an already established game.
2698472, Coke Zero Clint Capela with potential to be Diet Coke Clint Capela.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 02:42 PM
I don't love that right now he's not really good at much. For a guy with his height, wingspan, and relative athleticism, he's not a good rebounder and a very blah defender. He works hard, but it's hard to tell whether his decision making on both ends is due to lack of experience of lack of basketball IQ.

He shows the potential in flashes, but right now he's a big who can't shoot, can't rebound well, and can't defend consistently. He'll spend a *lot* of time in the G-League. Either he could be that next Capela, or he could be a guy who we say "who?" about in five years. That's a tough gamble for people thinking lotto for him. I'd pick him in the post-lotto mid-first, and I'd pray that he goes to a team with a rep for good player development.
2699866, bamma...solid starter
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:38 AM
2697445, Keldon Johnson
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:57 PM
2697498, Lil Truth, chance to be the best player in the draft.
Posted by TheRealBillyOcean, Thu May-30-19 02:53 PM
Sneaky athletic, tough competitor, natural shooting stroke. Competes on the defensive end. Has to work on his handle and playmaking.

Ceiling: Budget Paul Pierce
Floor: Bonzi Wells
2698188, There is literally zero chance he is the best player in the draft.
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Fri Jun-07-19 03:03 PM
But if he can shoot the ball more consistently and put all his tools into a box, then he can be a pretty solid pro. Some negative things stand out but they are correctable. I don't see a lot of positives that say NBA-ready but I think he could be a good two-way player in time. Could be a very solid defender against both 1s and 2s, 3s in a pinch but size/length isn't ideal there. On offense I like his game but he's got a lot of growing to do. Shooting more consistently in pretty much every area. I think he can be a good finisher at the rim but even there he needs to do to work. I think the idea is making him a 3-and-D 2, obviously needs to improve three-point consistency and FT% a little to fill that role. He could have a nice long career, but best player in a draft with Zion, Ja, RJ, etc? No way
2698474, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 2.0. I like him.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 02:47 PM
He's a guy who doesn't really do anything elite except play hard-- but that matters when he also doesn't really do anything badly either. There's also decent upside there-- until PJ went beast late in the year, I was convinced Keldon was my favorite prospect on UK. Keldon's young, and if he improves his handles/left hand, he could show better-than-draft-pick value. Could easily see him being a very solid starter who does 12-14 PPG, grabs ~5 RPG on hustle, and defends well.
2699867, he sorry
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:38 AM
2697446, Sekou Doumbouya
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:58 PM
2698874, Comparisons of him being Siakam are lazy.
Posted by B.J.S.301, Wed Jun-12-19 09:04 PM
He's not nearly the same defender. Got a decent handle and decent shooting but definitely goes up and down in his boxscores. Lots of potential for improvement as he has decent offensive IQ. But as a defender, has a bit of a way to go in learning discipline.

He could be Nic Batum, but with less vision.
2700082, tell me more.
Posted by cgonz00cc, Sat Jun-22-19 09:21 AM
not being sarcastic, but i know nothing about this guy and he wasnt even supposed to be there when we picked
2699868, solid rotation guy
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:38 AM
2697447, Romeo Langford
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:58 PM
2697592, Somebody sell me on this kid. I don’t see it
Posted by Beezo, Fri May-31-19 05:54 AM
2697620, Same
Posted by calminvasion, Fri May-31-19 12:19 PM
2697865, Ceiling: a Coke Zero DeMar DeRozan.
Posted by Frank Longo, Tue Jun-04-19 03:22 PM
He's big, he's quick, and he isn't shy. He's a decent defender, and his physical profile is obviously ideal for the 2 guard in today's NBA. But he's very turnover prone, and he's not a good shooter right today. It passes the eye test... but this isn't even a Reddish thing where his numbers were, like 33% and 77%. Langford is doing 27% from 3 and 72% from FT. Very blah numbers.

I think his ceiling is something like 17/4/3 on 41%/32%/75% with 3.5+ TOs per game. Think, like, a 23-year-old DeRozan with more turnovers. He'll get to play for 6+ years on potential alone, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up Shabazz Muhammad-esque, where maybe he has a season or two where his 3P% spikes and he's of real value, and otherwise he's just a bench wing guy who you look at and go, "Oh, he was great in high school."
2698146, he's a 3-and-D guy with no 3 and no D. pass.
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 08:08 PM
ostensibly he's got a nice NBA body and other "tools" but i couldn't say anything positive about him. like reddish he's got some "passion" and "motor" questions. not a great shooter. not a great defender. team didn't win shit. what does he have to hang his hat on?

now, i do see some of the appeal and i get that he played hurt most of the season, too. but if we are just going off his freshman year, this guy is a pick in the late 20s/30s, not a lotto pick. i don't want to trash anyone too hard based on one year but he wouldn't be high on my board.

2700074, didn't know about the thumb injury he played through
Posted by will_5198, Fri Jun-21-19 06:08 PM
hard to tell but all his games I watched after that were awful
2697448, Kevin Porter Jr.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:58 PM
2698074, Dion Waiters with a worse attitude. Let someone else take him.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-06-19 01:41 PM
He's got a better physical profile for the game than Waiters imo, but like Waiters, he's bullheaded on offense, doesn't pass, takes ill-advised step-backs and mid-rangers, and plays no defense. Also, unlike Waiters, his motor is very questionable. At least with Waiters, his version of pouting is to take a bunch of jumpers in a row. With Porter, his pouting is to do fucking nothing on the floor, then occasionally take a shitty long 2. He doesn't draw FTs, he fights with staff and coaches...

... I mean, maybe if you're *really* confident in your development team, you take the flier, because there's talent there. But he SCREAMS head case, and I'd rather let someone else be a genius who makes him a star than I would be the guy who has to pop four Advil a day because I have to deal with Kevin Porter drama on the regular.
2697449, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:58 PM
2698496, Diet Coke Malcolm Brogdon. Could help any team.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 04:44 PM
Great shooter. Good dribbler. One of the best passers in the class. Doesn't turn it over too much. Not really a PG-- like Brogdon, probably functions better as a secondary guy, but could handle the PG role in a pinch. Defense is probably better on potential than reality right now, but he's definitely not a slouch there.

Basically, he's a guy who isn't really *bad* at anything and has some elite skills for his draft class. Absolutely could start for a good team. Would love to see his numbers reach more like 40% from 3 and 85% from FT-- he's not awesome off the bounce right now, so improving that would def improve his 3 pointer numbers. But yeah, I have no complaints. End of lotto seems appropriate, and if someone reached for him, I wouldn't be stunned.
2697450, Nassir Little
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:59 PM
2697501, Smells like Tyrus Thomas
Posted by auragin_boi, Thu May-30-19 02:56 PM
Hopefully he can have a successful post-NBA career in social justice like him too.
2698070, Good upside but insanely low floor. *So* much work to do.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-06-19 01:28 PM
Like, here's a guy we won't know what he'll be for 4ish years. Minimum. If he's still in the league.

Pros: he's got the ideal NBA body and the ideal NBA athleticism. He's a good rebounder.

Cons: like, everything else. Can't shoot. Poor decision making. Bad passer. Black hole on offense. Very blah ball handler. Defensive liability so frequently last year that he couldn't stay on the floor-- he'd have okay stretches, but he knows nothing on D except gambling, it seems.

This was a guy who was supposed to be a Top 5 NBA Draft LOCK. And he's really not good at anything.

I can see him being the type of guy who impresses in a workout and, combined with his rep from HS, goes late lotto. But even his HS rep was so rooted in, like, one Jordan Brand Classic and one McD's AA game. So that HS hype may have been overblown, tbh.

If you're a bad team, or if you're a good team willing to stash a guy in the G-League for a year or two, he's a project with the physical tools to be enticing. You could tell me he's a star by 2026. Or you could tell me he's in China playing for the Flying Dragons by 2021. I'd believe you either way. He's just not an NBA player right now with his current lack of definable skills.
2698148, I would take a flyer on him but you've got to be patient
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 08:21 PM
I like his two-way potential and you can't undersell energy. There are guys who go beyond their numbers with their contribution because they amp up the energy, create pace, make the another team a little edgier, etc. He's one of those guys. Now we've seen Carolina put those kind of wing players out there and they did nothing but I feel like he's got more going on than those guys did. Defensively I think he can contribute before the end of his rookie deal. Offensively, well, he is a decent foul shooter so that's not a liability (plus he can play to contact and get to the line) and maybe it suggests he can improve his other shooting numbers/consistency.

I'd definitely take him in the mid-teens though it seems like he might end up in the top 10. Again I dunno how many guys are bankable beyond the top five or so. But he isn't one of these guys who will be a dominant three, seven-foot wonder or franchise PG, so he might lose some all-things-equal battles based on position. Overall I think I am a little higher on him than some other people here are though.
2699869, sorry
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:39 AM
2697451, Talen Horton-Tucker
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:59 PM
2697876, Big bodied youngin with a full bag and crazy wing span
Posted by Beezo, Tue Jun-04-19 09:06 PM
He's gonna be good.
2698149, Stud off the bench at a minimum
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 08:28 PM
He's strong, he's long and he's well-rounded. The thing that I think will hold him back from being more than a super sub or a gritty no. 4/5 starter is his shooting. Maybe that'll get better? Didn't show much range, not a great foul shooter. But he can handle the ball, pass and defend. He's definitely a two in the pros. 6'4" tops in height but he's got real long arms; size is a benefit, not a detriment here IMHO.
2698478, Crazy young, crazy potential, but easy to see a bust here.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 02:54 PM
He's got huge arms, he's a great rebounder at the wing, and he's a highlight-reel shot creator on occasion. I also think-- I could be wrong-- he's the youngest player in the draft.

... but I think the hype is overblown. He's a bad shooter, period. He makes really questionable decisions with regularity. He's a shockingly mediocre defender for his size-- normally people associate wingspan with good defense, but effort matters. He's also a very average-to-blah athlete, which, again, you don't normally associate with the freak body.

If he became a better shooter or started exhibiting better motor, then he could give you lotto-level returns... but I really question at this point in his career if he can become a starter. You've got to put this kid on a good developmental team. He'll likely spend 2+ years in the G-League, I'd think.
2697452, PJ Washington
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 12:59 PM
2697505, Best big in the draft. A combo of Elton Brand & David West.
Posted by TheRealBillyOcean, Thu May-30-19 03:04 PM
Can shoot to NBA three. Can overpower smalls and score in the post. And should translate as a solid shot blocker.

Ceiling: Elton Brand/David West
Floor: Patrick Patterson
2697520, wut
Posted by ThaTruth, Thu May-30-19 05:05 PM
2697622, No stutters
Posted by TheRealBillyOcean, Fri May-31-19 01:26 PM
2697624, you realize he's at least 2 inches shorter than either of those guys...
Posted by ThaTruth, Fri May-31-19 02:03 PM
among other things lol...
2697625, About an inch with shoes. All have long wingspans.
Posted by TheRealBillyOcean, Fri May-31-19 02:38 PM
But I didn’t know comps meant body doppelgängers.
2697626, his wingspan shortest and so is he...
Posted by ThaTruth, Fri May-31-19 03:04 PM
>But I didn’t know comps meant body doppelgängers.

it dictates what type of player he will or will not be at the NBA level
2697627, If there is a vast difference? Sure.
Posted by TheRealBillyOcean, Fri May-31-19 03:21 PM
But 6’8 to 6’9 is negligible.

Some people compare 6’7 Zion to 6’10 Blake Griffin.

2697628, I don't see that either...
Posted by ThaTruth, Fri May-31-19 03:30 PM

>Some people compare 6’7 Zion to 6’10 Blake Griffin.
2697634, Well okay.
Posted by TheRealBillyOcean, Fri May-31-19 04:11 PM
2698073, Do you realize how big of praise that is? Jesus Christ.
Posted by Orbit_Established, Thu Jun-06-19 01:39 PM

Everyone who isn't Kevin Garnett gets thrown

Elton Brand was a spectacular big man for a long time.

As was David West.


O_E: "Acts like an asshole and posts with imperial disdain"

"I ORBITs the solar system, listenin..."

(C)Keith Murray, "
2698087, Yep. That's why I think that's a best case scenario ceiling.
Posted by TheRealBillyOcean, Thu Jun-06-19 03:27 PM
He has that in him.
2698061, High-character, jack-of-all-trades guy. Diet Coke David West.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-06-19 01:03 PM
He plays hard, he's strong around the rim at both finishing and rebounding, he works hard on defense (save for the odd lapses, but again, that's most every young player), and the shot has looked better-- though shooting 42% from 3 and 66% from FT screams regression imo. Good motor too. May not be your highest upside guy late lottery, but certainly seems to be one of the safer picks.

Ceiling is a David West type, maybe not quite as good but I could see him putting up real stats quickly. Maybe not an All-Star but if you told me he could do 16 and 7 or in that ballpark, I wouldn't be too surprised. Floor is maybe more like Patrick Patterson-- but again, that's a guy who's played for a decade and gotten good bench minutes fairly consistently.

If you're a team in win-now mode looking for a young guy to help right away, I think Washington can be instant bench help and then some.
2698117, LMAO hard to follow this act
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:53 PM
He's a solid prospect though
2699870, sorry
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:39 AM
2699911, The more I look at him, the more I see tweener issues
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-20-19 02:13 PM
He's pretty long but can't see him doing much against 4s at this level, but he's not going to be a 3 either. Maybe he can be one of these undersized rebounders, maybe not. Mid-range games are not exactly at a premium now.
2708364, Better than I thought
Posted by Beezo, Tue Dec-03-19 01:38 PM
2697453, Grant Williams
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:00 PM
2698479, Diet Coke Draymond Green. Going to be a steal imo.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 03:01 PM
He lacks Dray's athleticism and handles, but I *love* a high IQ player who can see the floor the way Williams does on both ends. He's never going to be the guy who blows up as a scorer, but he's the guy who helps you win games.

-- terrific rebounder
-- great strength
-- excellent defender, both in IQ and in body; I don't buy the concerns that he's too slow to be switchable, because frankly I don't think he needs to be-- he also did better on agility stuff at the combine than a number of guys scouts are cysing as guys with defensive potential
-- shot is improving consistently, and he can score in a number of ways
-- excellent motor, and he's the first motherfucker on the floor for a loose ball. ELITE level intangibles.

I keep seeing him projected late first, maybe even second. I'd take him mid-first. He'd shine on a team like Boston or Atlanta-- or even in Detroit, where they could use insurance for Blake's inevitable missed games.
2699827, smart, skilled, VERY strong but doesn't have NBA build
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Wed Jun-19-19 11:09 PM
he's got a lot of things going for him but his height, length, etc don't scream NBA big man and while he can shoot from mid range his range isn't great for a faceup guy and that'll take him away from the basket, obviously. i wouldn't be surprised to see this guy prosper but i wouldn't invest a high pick in him either.
2700072, the anti-NBA body
Posted by will_5198, Fri Jun-21-19 06:05 PM
props to my dude for turning himself into a first rounder through pure work...crazy how much he maximizes his skill-set.
2697454, KZ Okpala
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:00 PM
2698501, Draft him on versatility potential and pray.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 05:09 PM
I'm not overly high on this guy, because while he started the season well, he really started to struggle down the stretch. He's still too skinny-- classic late growth spurt shit-- but has potential in some areas. He's a good catch-and-shoot 4. He's got good height and length. He's pretty mobile for his size.

Buuuuuuuut he can't defend. He can't shoot doing anything other than catching and shooting. He can't handle. He can't drive. So... what does he do, really?

I think you draft him in hopes of adding 30 pounds of muscle to him and you hope his average rebounding fixes itself with added strength. He'll never be a positive defender-- and it's unlikely he'll be average-- but maybe he can be a hustle guy underneath? Or you improve his shooting?

I'm obviously not high on him. I've seen him mid-first on some mocks... but I have him at the top of the second. The potential is there, but it's exclusively in his body. You have to believe a *lot* in a late bloom.
2697455, Cam Johnson
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:01 PM
2698067, 3-and-D wing. Nothing else, but that's all he needs to be.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-06-19 01:15 PM
He'll be the consummate teammate of a star. Put him on the right squad, he'll space the floor, he'll be a decent team defender, he won't make mistakes, he'll make your team better. Doubt he'd ever be a star, but doubt in today's league he'll bust. Low ceiling but very high floor. I'm honestly higher on Johnson than I was on Justin Jackson-- Jackson had a few more tools in his kit, but Johnson's the better shooter and ultimately that's what counts imo.
2698153, Danny Green V 2.0. SO many teams should look at him
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 08:46 PM
I see him mocked in the low 20s and high 30s. I think he will end up a little higher. Is he the best shooter in this draft? Right today, one would have to say yes. Will he be able to defend sooner than his teenage contemporaries? Most likely.

San Antonio, Toronto, Philly, Houston ... all these teams and more would benefit from his presence. He's also the oldest prospect on the board or close to it, already 23. Experience, shooting, respectable defense. Perfect for a team that needs can't dip significantly into the FA market and needs to pull an immediately useful player out of their mid or late first rounder.
2699871, my sleeper.
Posted by Basaglia, Thu Jun-20-19 09:40 AM
2697456, Tyler Herro
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:01 PM
2697508, Talented scorer. Not just a shooter.
Posted by TheRealBillyOcean, Thu May-30-19 03:18 PM
Ceiling: Budget Manu
Floor: Buddy Hield
2698493, Ceiling: Diet Coke/Coke Zero Devin Booker. Starter.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 04:34 PM
I expect his shooting %s to be even better than they were last year, tbh. He's elite shooting 3s off the dribble, and he's quite good catch-and-shoot. Also a smart passer, a high motor defender-- he's not especially quick or athletic, but he's fairly crafty and plays a smart game.

Definitely may get burned defensively against NBA wings-- you have to be quick or strong or have next-level defensive instincts, and I'm not convinced he's got any of those things, though he could get stronger with age tbh.

Shouldn't get to Devin Booker's level, but shit, Booker scores like 25 PPG. If Herro is the 15-16 PPG equivalent, he's still gonna be a MASSIVE deal in the mid-first. And at absolute worst, he can play as a knock down shooter off the bench-- which is still honestly a fairly good mid-first deal. I'm pretty high on him.
2699828, I kinda like him, could be better in the pros than in college
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Wed Jun-19-19 11:11 PM
That's not uncommon for guys coming off deep Kentucky teams lately but I think it's a little more pronounced for him. He can be a catch and shoot guy but I think he has more than that in his bag offensively. Obviously needs to develop physically but that's hardly uncommon in the draft now.
2697457, Chuma Okeke
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:01 PM
2698495, One of the higher-IQ defenders/hustle guys in the draft.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 04:39 PM
Definitely screams small-ball 4 style game. Doesn't have enough skill to be Draymond, but he is a sneakily terrific passer, which is definitely an underrated skill for a 4 to have in today's NBA. Very smart defender. When he has time to set up off the catch-and-shoot, he can also knock down 3s consistently.

I'm concerned about his health post-ACL tear, especially because he's not as athletic as most of these hustle prospects tend to be. Not a great ballhandler, not an off-the-bounce scorer at all. So he's definitely limited in ceiling. Still, high-motor and high-IQ guys like this tend to stick for a while based on intangibles, boards, and D. Pending health, he's a really good value late first. I could see his ceiling being a starter for a good team.
2700040, maybe a bit of a reach where he went but i like him
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Fri Jun-21-19 01:52 PM
adds energy, plays defense and overall you WIN with guys like this
2697458, Jontay Porter
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:01 PM
2697503, Injured...perpetually
Posted by auragin_boi, Thu May-30-19 03:00 PM
2699853, Take him early second and pray.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-20-19 09:27 AM
Prototypical pick-and-pop big if he can stay on the court. Huge risk, huge reward. Undeniable first round talent.
2697459, Matisse Thybulle
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:02 PM
2698498, Potential defensive beast, but *so* many questions.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 04:53 PM
He was a monster in Washington's zone, and he's insanely active in passing lanes. His timing on defending shots and passes is pretty unreal.


That was in the zone. When Romar ran an NBA-style defense switching everything, the defense fucking sucked, so I don't want to hold that against Thybulle... but there are very real questions about how he'll do defensively as a stopper. On top of that, he's got good form to his shot, but he's a INSANELY reluctant shooter. Doesn't seem terribly interested in scoring on that side of the ball. Which is dumb considering how much more athletic he is than most of his opponents in the Pac-12.

So I have no idea how to project him. Athleticism and defensive timing mandates someone take him end of first imo-- or maybe Boston uses him to try to replace Marcus Smart? But yeah, he could make All-Defense teams or he could be out of the league in a few years. Even Andre Roberson is more active on offense than Thybulle.
2700036, by the numbers he's a wild defensive prospect but like you said ...
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Fri Jun-21-19 01:41 PM
who knows how that will translate into the next level and on offense he projects as a guy that gives you nothing. i am excited to have him but not at the cost. could have had little at 24, edwards at 33, bol at 42 and i'd have been pretty thrilled or even paschall at 33. there were a lot of picks in play, too. i get that philly isn't looking to load up on projects but they had needs to fill and could use some guys off the bench who can score. they went for all bruisers and the 2for1 wasn't particularly opportune.
2697460, Bruno Fernando
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:02 PM
2697485, No nonsense walking double double.
Posted by Beezo, Thu May-30-19 01:57 PM
Physical, mean, nasty.
Tested last year, came back worked on his game and got better. Solid pro for years.
2698497, Coke Zero Enes Kanter. Second round flier guy.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 04:49 PM
Good thick body and good touch inside... though you wonder in today's NBA if these things are as big of assets as they would've been a decade ago. Strong rebounder. Good FT shooter for a big. All of these things are good...

... but he's just in no way a switchable big or a shooter big. He's old school. On top of that, he's bad on defense. Potential is there, but he was bad defensively in college. Remember how NBA teams just took Jahlil Okafor and put him in PnR CONSTANTLY? Yeah, they'd do that with Fernando.

If he ends up in the right situation, or if he develops his jump shot, he could stick. Good potential to hang around, also good potential to do 3 PPG 5 RPG for like four years and then bottom out, like so many other bigs with potential do.
2697461, Carsen Edwards
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:02 PM
2697482, Shot taking, shot making dawg.. will take somebody’s minutes from jump.
Posted by Beezo, Thu May-30-19 01:45 PM
2697618, Will absolutely stick and have a long career
Posted by calminvasion, Fri May-31-19 12:15 PM
Not sure he'll ever be a consistent starter though
2698154, In a word, ONIONS! Philly buzz picking up. I am cool with that.
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 08:53 PM
If Philly could grab in the second round that would be phenomenal. It might happen as there are some pretty big concerns for the next level despite his prolific season and big showing in the tournament.

His size is a red flag and not because a 6' (maybe) guy can't play in the NBA, but he is a shooting guard (albeit one who can pass) and he is not very good going to the hoop, which won't magically turn around in the NBA (life will be tougher in the trees at this level).

But beyond that, he's a shooter and he can free himself with or without the ball for shots. He is exactly the kind of guy Philly could use on their second unit, kind of a mini-version of Shamet in terms of his role. That'll be more valuable if they lose JJ, too.

I like him fine as a late first, love him as a second-rounder. He'll have a decent career heating it up off the bench.
2698481, Off-the-bench undersized shooter. A better, stronger Quinn Cook.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 03:11 PM
People may be mad at that comparison because Edwards was so much better than Cook in college (except at winning titles), but that's the role Edwards'll need to play in the NBA. Cook has provided obvious value for GSW because he makes 3s, tries hard on defense, and makes the odd pass for others. Teams will ask Edwards to do the same, not more.

Edwards isn't a very good creator-- no one should draft him looking for him to play the point imo-- but he could be near-elite at creating shots for himself. He's not as athletic as one would think, but he's quick and he's strong, and when he's hot, he's really hard to cool. He needs to do better at finishing inside, as he's not nearly the threat there today as he is from the outside.

He could easily settle around that 8-12 PPG range, good bench relief scorer standard, but if he can improve at the rim and drain high %s from 3s, he could also become a Diet Coke Lou Williams, a 6MOY contender type of dude. Either way, I like him end of the first.
2697462, Daniel Gafford
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:03 PM
2697463, Jalen McDaniels
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:03 PM
2699909, In some ways ideal for modern NBA, but high bust potential w/ that body
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-20-19 02:06 PM
He's 6'9" with long arms. He's quick enough to play the 3 and guard 3s, but he has ability in the post on offense. Shooting is a little streaky. Defense needs work but he has tools to improve. The thing is that he is hella skinny, there are literally guys in the league six foot that weight as much as him. He is skinny all over. Will he be able to get much stronger? Don't see him as having a projectable frame. That might limit his ability to stay healthy and it will certainly limit his ability to play the post, something he did well at SDSU.
2697464, Ty Jerome
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:03 PM
2697619, Love him. Will be solid starter on an avg team for a few years
Posted by calminvasion, Fri May-31-19 12:16 PM
2698483, Greivis Vasquez 2.0. Don't let him fall out of the first round, imo.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 03:17 PM
He's not very athletic, and yes, that could hamstring his career considerably. However, he's *such* a high IQ player and he works so hard at everything that I really like his odds. He can shoot 40+%, he has good size/strength for the position, he's one of the better passers in the draft, and he's a consummate team player. He pissed me the fuck off every time we played him because he's so fucking good. I honestly thought he was their most important player the last two seasons-- he's slept on because Hunter was the body and Guy was the gunner. But Jerome made that team tick. He even boxes out consistently. As a point guard. Fuck these "developmental" dudes in the late first, if you want someone to give minutes now, you take him. He'll be a backup PG/serviceable starter when your starting PG is injured for a decade.
2699829, Not a fan. Good college player, don't see it translating to the pros
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Wed Jun-19-19 11:14 PM
The things he has, the NBA graveyard is littered with guys who have them. He's not fast, he's not quick, he's not athletic. The more athletic competition, higher pace and shorter shot clock will all work against him.
2700075, nah. not a NBA athlete and can't see him guarding anybody
Posted by will_5198, Fri Jun-21-19 06:09 PM
outside of Virginia's system and with all the space on NBA floors.
2697465, Luguentz Dort
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:05 PM
2699843, 3-and-D potential, but I'm a skeptic.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-20-19 09:00 AM
The tools are all there, and he flashed them at times. He has NBA range... but I don't love his form, and his consistency/shot selection is iffy. Defense definitely is good on-ball, but it's not very good off-ball. Also not a great passer.

Best case scenario is, I dunno, a worse Patrick Beverly? Someone that can defend ballhandlers on the wing and maybe hit the odd 3. I'd take a stab at him early second... but the first round buzz I've heard I don't really get, personally.
2697466, Darius Bazley
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:06 PM
2697504, Got a Mil for an intership...already won
Posted by auragin_boi, Thu May-30-19 03:01 PM
2699852, No clue, but I'd be scared.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-20-19 09:20 AM
He wasn't really seen as a guaranteed OAD, made a big deal about entering the G-League... then decided to pass on that, and I suspect it's because he wasn't good enough to actually play good minutes there.

He's got elite potential, obviously, so a second-round flier is a stone-cold lock, but it's gonna be hard to give guys like him guaranteed deals with so insanely little game tape against real competition. He was a developmental project before all of this-- now, without tape, there are even more questions. Looked good enough at the combine, but the shot is still a question mark, still not sure about his defense, etc.

Best case scenario, you've stolen a lotto pick in the second round. Worst case, hey, at least he got that million.
2699906, I'm intrigued though not excited
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-20-19 01:59 PM
He did the same thing as Mitchell Robinson, I guess, and on the surface it sounds good that he was working with former pros and pro coaches, that they liked his game, etc. But we haven't seen much other than some workout and combine stuff. NHS performance was weak. He looks the part, 6'9" with nice length. You could do worse with a second-round pick but I would not sink a first into him.
2697467, Mfiondu Kabengele
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:06 PM
2697581, RE: Mfiondu Kabengele
Posted by absence, Fri May-31-19 12:50 AM
Must've had his best 4-5 games of the year every time I saw him. Looked like a big, strong, athletic finisher/rebounder who could shoot from deep. Potential late lottery talent, but probably a good role player who you can trust like a Mo Speights.
2698484, Some concerns, but he's got obvious NBA skills.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 03:22 PM
He's 6'10 and can shoot 3s. He can defend multiple positions. He's one of the better shot blockers in the draft. He's got terrific handles for his height. I was concerned about his speed/agility, but he honestly did a little better than I expected at the combine, so he's probably okay there too. He's your prototypical stretch 4/small ball 5.

I'm majorly concerned about his playmaking, as he *never* passes the ball right now. This can improve... but he's an older player, and it's unclear how much upside exists in that regard. If he can't pass at all, he'll never be more than an off-the-bench stretch big. That also may be for the best on the other side, tbh-- he's very foul-prone due to aggressive defense, so just let him come in, work hard, and gun for ~20 mpg.

2697468, Shamorie Ponds
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:07 PM
2699844, Bench scorer type. Guaranteed to go off a couple times a year.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-20-19 09:03 AM
Not really a PG, I don't think, though it's hard to tell because St. John's needed him to shoot a billion times a game. Inconsistent shooter but there are fewer guys better when he's on. Decent passer, decent defender.

Wouldn't be surprised to see him stick-- feels like a bench guy who will randomly hang 30 in some midseason nothingburger game, be a fan favorite, etc.-- but I think folks expecting a real career out of him based on those Duke/Villanova games two seasons ago are due for a wake up.
2699916, Strong player to run a second unit
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-20-19 02:22 PM
He was a volume guy in college but still had pretty good TS%, AST/TO and other efficiency numbers. I saw him sparingly but liked his game in terms of decision-making, shooting and finishing at the cup. Notice I didn't say anything positive about his defense. Also he's 6 foot maybe. Probably not built for big minutes but could be a very nice backup PG and might be able to finish games for the right team.
2697469, Naz Reid
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:07 PM
2698506, Probably too slow to be effective, but I like his style.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 06:30 PM
Look, he's really slow and he can't jump, which is a deadly combo in today's NBA. So in all practicality, you can't take him first round.

BUT he has a lot of first round skills. He's terrific around the rim. He's an active rebounder (the benefit to a lack of athleticism-- he has to rely on skill instead!). He's a huge body, which means even if he's too slow to guard the perimeter, he can at least try to get in people's way. He's got terrific handles for a guy his size. Most importantly, he's a good jump shooter with NBA range. (I use the term "jump" loosely. But you get the idea.)

So... I don't know a good comparison. Maybe a combination of what Johnny O'Bryant was supposed to be and the actual Johnny O'Bryant? That could just be a lazy LSU comparison, but I don't think it's awful. Worst case scenario, he's not athletic enough to stick. Best case scenario, you get a decent off-the-bench stretch big with range and handles. Definitely worth a shot in the high second.
2697470, Louis King
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:07 PM
2697507, I liked his game at Oregon
Posted by auragin_boi, Thu May-30-19 03:06 PM
Might be a very solid role player at some point.

Doug Christie vibes.
2699846, Tools are there, but def scared of consistency/work ethic.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-20-19 09:07 AM
I'm low on guys in this draft who have work ethic question marks, because there are so many guys who absolutely kill it on the drive/motor/will to win front. King has nearly all of those players beat in athleticism, so you'd think he's a first round guy on that alone, but the questions about his desire to improve are very real. He had no excuse being as blah as he was at Oregon. Bad shot selection, poor rebounding effort, doesn't want to draw contact, etc.

Take him in the second and pray the G-League wakes him up. Can't give this guy a guaranteed deal imo.
2697471, Tremont Waters
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:07 PM
2697483, Love his game. Crafty ball handler, solid shooter and a thief on defense.
Posted by Beezo, Thu May-30-19 01:51 PM
His size doesn’t concern me.
2698072, More than likely Europe bound.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-06-19 01:33 PM
I love the kid-- he plays with big balls, fights on defense, makes clean passes, isn't afraid of the moment. But he's so small, and he's not NBA fast or athletic. If you've got that combo, you have to either be a great shooter-- he's not-- or you have to be good enough to never make mistakes against bigger, faster defenders-- and he was very turnover-prone.

I've been wrong before both ways on smaller PGs, so who knows... but yeah, I'm not taking him before mid-to-late second, and more realistically, I'm bringing him in for Summer League as an undrafted FA.
2698145, saw him play a couple times in person. really sound player but ...
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 08:03 PM
we had seats on the floor one game and he walked right past me. i was like a head taller than him, he's 5'10" tops. he isn't one of these shorts guys who is real built either like some of these smaller defensemen with wiry strength in the NHL or a stocky Nelson/Lowry type in the NBA. He's just not very tall or big, marginally bigger than AI was if at all.

but i do love his game, very smart and engaged player at both ends of the floor. i am rooting for him but if he doesn't make it he's got a nice career in italy or spain or some other high-paying euro league.
2697472, Miye Oni
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:07 PM
2698500, Definite role player potential in the second.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 05:02 PM
Pretty good shooter, high IQ player, makes the right pass or shot consistently. Would occasionally get in trouble at Yale with ballhandling/forcing the issue, but it's easy to blame that on how much Yale asked him to do. He's a guy with an NBA body who can shoot NBA 3s and who has the potential to defend NBA wings. I wouldn't let him slip past, say, 45. He could easily play for a decade.
2697473, Jordan Bone
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:07 PM
2700076, great speed. not a real shooter but improved to good enough.
Posted by will_5198, Fri Jun-21-19 06:11 PM
last year was the first season he was really a "point guard". good potential for where he was taken.
2700081, this is beautiful-
Posted by kinetic94761180, Sat Jun-22-19 09:18 AM
2697474, Charles Matthews
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:08 PM
2697475, Jordan Poole
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:08 PM
2699833, Fort Wayne Mad Ants
Posted by Beezo, Thu Jun-20-19 06:51 AM
2700037, doesn't thrill me but he got himself into a nice situation.
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Fri Jun-21-19 01:42 PM
he should do OK on his rookie deal and then eat off his second deal, but i bet he will disappoint the team who signs him to that second contract.
2697476, Ignas Brazdeikis
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:08 PM
2697477, TACKO FALL
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu May-30-19 01:08 PM
2697495, Low minutes/high FPPM staple in Survivor
Posted by auragin_boi, Thu May-30-19 02:49 PM
2697519, Boban?
Posted by Ryan M, Thu May-30-19 05:05 PM
2697598, Yup...might be more consistent with PT though
Posted by auragin_boi, Fri May-31-19 08:23 AM
2697850, I think Boban is better than Tacko.
Posted by Frank Longo, Tue Jun-04-19 11:19 AM
Tacko may be better with shot blocking, but Boban can actually shoot a little, making over 77% of his free throws for his career, whereas Tacko is an absolute liability there. Tacko shot 36% from the FT line-- 36%!! (And Boban's even made a few threes!) Any team that tries to bring Tacko into a game will see Tacko instantly hacked, imo. That's what I'd do. Until Tacko can prove he can make, say, 60% of his FTs, he just doesn't provide enough to get real PT imo.
2698141, Boban is a better all-around player but still has cement feet
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 07:55 PM
Tacko can at least specialize and stick that way. But yeah he is almost as slow as Boban and any time he touches it in the paint a team can just comfortably put him on the line. If you slow the game down for Boban, he can score some, but that's usually at the expense of the rest of the offense, I guess. With Tacko he will never score.
2698116, Upper-middle-class man's Shawn Bradley
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 04:52 PM
Is there a place for the plodding big man in today's NBA? If so, he will occupy it. Nice rim protector but matchup issues up the ass. Hard to come up with more than half a dozen guys he can guard man to man. Could be an excellent backup center or maybe even a fringe starter for a team that plays zone or zone-ish D. Could also be a physical disaster or a guy who just can't find the right matchups to be effective.
2698119, I just don't know why, in analytics-laden 2019...
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-06-19 05:02 PM
... other teams wouldn't just foul the shit out of him every time. Like, the old-school guy in me loves the idea of spot-playing him. But if you have the opportunity to let your opponent shoot a 3 or to force your opponent to take two FTs at sub-40% shooting, you take the latter every time.

Maybe he could get that FT% to 55-60% and make things a little more honest. But he seems like a super lost cause there.
2698143, that's another thing that limits his usefulness
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 07:59 PM
maybe he can work to get his percentage up past the drummond and DJs of the world and limit that. but for now there are just too many things keeping him off the floor. i would not touch him unless the pick is down in the 50s.
2697701, Healthy Michael Porter better than any of these guys btw
Posted by theeraser, Sun Jun-02-19 06:54 AM
2697811, Unicorns better than horses, btw
Posted by Jayson Willyams, Mon Jun-03-19 01:42 PM
2698150, prolly never happen but I am pulling for him
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-06-19 08:30 PM
nice talent and he'd make the nuggs are a serious-ass squad.
2698090, Not much too add to this post
Posted by Numba_33, Thu Jun-06-19 03:41 PM
since I don't watch college basketball, but it is fun to go back and read the older versions of these threads.
2698475, this is an awfully weak class.
Posted by guru0509, Mon Jun-10-19 02:47 PM
>since I don't watch college basketball, but it is fun to go
>back and read the older versions of these threads.
2698507, Eric Paschall
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 06:30 PM
2698508, Woefully slept on. Can absolutely start in today's NBA.
Posted by Frank Longo, Mon Jun-10-19 06:41 PM
In the past, Paschall would have no chance because he's a "tweener." Nowadays? Give me Paschall immediately. Good strength, size, handles, passing. Switchability on defense with strength and length. Capable shooter from distance. Good discipline, good character. Wouldn't be surprised to see him surpass a few of these "project" higher upside guys. Could easily become the next PJ Tucker with health and shot improvement.

2698724, Will be good
Posted by Beezo, Tue Jun-11-19 10:31 AM
2699826, He's gonna be a solid pro. Ceiling B Grade Draymond, Floor BG Tucker
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Wed Jun-19-19 11:05 PM
Big (but not tall) guy who can do a little of everything. At worst a very good, versatile sub, at best a glue guy starter. Seems like the kind of guy that a team like San Antonio would scoop up for a steal.
2699847, GOGA!
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-20-19 09:07 AM
2699849, I like what I've read. Real big man potential here.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-20-19 09:11 AM
Usually when I see Euro big men, my red flags are things like "shies away from contact," "inconsistent effort," "bad defense." We don't get any of those with Goga. He's a big body, good passer/handler for his size, good rebounding, some catch-and-shoot/pick-and-pop potential. Elite PnR timing, elite shot blocking timing. Just seems to get the game and seems to have improved consistently.

He's not a very fast mover/great jumper, so that could keep him out of the lotto... but I imagine pairing this guy with someone like Trae Young, some elite PnR passer, and I think this big body guy would thrive in a system like that. Don't ask him to defend the perimeter and switch everything, ask him to drop back, guard the rim, and crush on PnR on offense.

CAVEAT: I have seen insanely little of this guy, this is just based on things I've read. But I like that my red flags aren't there.
2699902, Lower-body strength, lateral mobility, no second jump ... red flags
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-20-19 01:52 PM
Maybe he can become a faceup guy in the mold of Okur that can get involved in pick action. I don't see much to get excited about. He can have an OK career off the bench maybe. Probably would do better staying in Europe and trying to be a star there but he will go in the first round so very likely he comes over and makes a go of it.
2699907, Admittedly, I haven't seen him, so I claim no stock.
Posted by Frank Longo, Thu Jun-20-19 02:04 PM
I just know a couple guys I trust who seem to be way in on him and figured I'd pass along.
2699914, he only played part of one euro league season
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Thu Jun-20-19 02:18 PM
i've just seen a little tape on him, enough to get a feel for how he moves and what he likes to do. he had some big games against decent teams it looks like. i suspect his future is there though, but i am not basing this evaluation on a ton of film or anything. there really isn't that much out there.
2700039, Was there no Luka Samanic entry here?
Posted by ConcreteCharlie, Fri Jun-21-19 01:49 PM
Kinda surprised because as Euros go, he's a guy who's been out there for a while. He rose up the board but not to the point of going undrafted to being taken in the first. I saw him a little when he was playing in Spain.

I will take some of his stock. He moves REALLY well for his size. He has the tools to really kill it on offense as a guy who you just have to play straight up. He can put it on the floor, drive either direction, score in traffic, get to the line and shoot the ball. A lot of the knocks against him kind of sound like generic Euro criticisms but I guess some are valid. He did seem to kind of fall back at times and he didn't seem real engaged on defense. I think it's a pretty nice pick for the Spurs though.
2708360, About 20 games in. Where we at with this?
Posted by Beezo, Tue Dec-03-19 12:45 PM
2708362, I'm at "it's 20 games in."
Posted by Frank Longo, Tue Dec-03-19 01:11 PM
Most of these younger kids we won't know what they'll truly be til Year 3.

Best guys so far have been Morant, Clarke, Herro, and Paschall. Also like what we've seen from Hunter, Barrett, Hachimura, White, and PJ Washington. But it's 20 games in.
2708363, First quarter of the season is done. Never too soon to see some things.
Posted by Beezo, Tue Dec-03-19 01:36 PM
Early evaluation.
I agree with your list of yougins who look the part so far.
2708367, Thybulle for the Sixers is showing some good form
Posted by Vector, Tue Dec-03-19 02:27 PM
2708379, Yes I’m pleased
Posted by bshelly, Tue Dec-03-19 03:42 PM
2708385, if someone can ever get him to believe in his offense, he'd be deadly.
Posted by PROMO, Tue Dec-03-19 05:26 PM
but i mean, i own all the Thybulle stock so i'm still VERY "in" on his potential and what he's done so far.