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Forum nameOkay Sports
Topic subjectIt's a baseless argument, like all these crying idiots' arguments.
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=8&topic_id=2686516&mesg_id=2686989
2686989, It's a baseless argument, like all these crying idiots' arguments.
Posted by Brew, Thu Feb-07-19 09:56 AM
Since Bill Belichick took over as coach of the New England Patriots, the team has gone on an incredible run. As it stands right now they don't have a losing record against any team in the NFL. In fact outside of the Panthers (3-3) and the Giants (3-3), they have a winning record against every other team.

Now, one of the main arguments for this has been that the Patriots have benefitted from playing in a weak division/conference. Being able to beat up on the lowly Bills, Dolphins and Jets has "padded" their record. Or "they wouldn't be as good if they were in the NFC." I'm about to show you why that's not the truth.

Patriots Win Percentage
The Patriots are a staggering 248-86 against the NFL since 2000, which equates to a .743 win percentage. So as a whole, the NFL has not done particularly well against the Pats.

If we break it down by conference, it looks like this:

Conference Win - Loss Win Percentage
AFC 187 - 64 .745
NFC 61 - 22 .735
So even with a smaller sample size, the conference breakdowns are pretty much even. Let's break it down by divisions.

Division Win - Loss Win Percentage
AFC South 41 - 9 .820
NFC South 17 - 5 .773
AFC North 32 - 10 .762
AFC East 83 - 29 .741
NFC West 14 - 5 .737
NFC North 16 - 6 .727
NFC East 14 - 6 .700
AFC West 31 - 16 .660

A few things stand out.

The AFC South has performed dismally against the Patriots, which even includes the Peyton Manning era Colts.

The Patriots difficulty with the Broncos (10-9) is the main reason the AFC West is at the bottom of this list.

The AFC East is smack dab in the middle of this list. Not nearly the cakewalk that the AFC South provides.

AFC East vs Everybody
This really only proves that the AFC East is just as bad as everyone else against the Patriots. But let's take it one step further. How has the rest of the AFC East performed vs other divisions since 2000? (Note: These numbers are through the end of the 2017 season).

Division W - L - T Win Percentage
AFC East 609 - 543 - 0 .520
NFC East 593 - 557 - 2 .515
NFC South 578 - 572 - 2 .502
AFC North 577 - 571 - 4 .501
AFC West 570 - 582 - 0 .495
NFC North 567 - 583 - 2 .492
AFC South 548 - 572 - 0 .489
NFC West 543 - 605 - 4 .471

Ok, this isn't really fair since we're including the Patriots in this. Obviously, if we remove the Patriots from the results the AFC will plummet:

Division W - L - T Win Percentage
NFC East 593 - 557 - 2 .515
NFC South 578 - 572 - 2 .502
AFC North 577 - 571 - 4 .501
AFC West 570 - 582 - 0 .495
NFC North 567 - 583 - 2 .492
AFC South 548 - 572 - 0 .489
NFC West 543 - 605 - 4 .471
AFC East 395 - 469 - 0 .457

But again, this isn't fair to the AFC East. What happens when we remove every season's division winners from each division?

Division W - L - T Win Percentage
AFC East 395 - 469 - 0 .457
NFC East 390 - 472 - 2 .451
NFC South 394 - 501 - 2 .439
AFC North 368 - 493 - 4 .425
AFC South 365 - 499 - 0 .422
AFC West 363 - 501 - 0 .420
NFC North 361 - 502 - 2 .417
NFC West 347 - 515 - 4 .401

Huh. The AFC East is back on top when you remove the best team from each division, which leads me to believe that the rest of the AFC East hasn't been "easy" by any stretch. In fact, it almost looks like the Patriots have played in the most competitive division in football over the past 17 years, and have still managed to put up historic numbers.

Edit: there's been a lot of conversation about how it was unfair to remove the division winner for each season, and the comparison should be removing the best teams from each division since 2000. So let's put that one to rest, too:

Division W - L - T Win Pct Best Team
NFC East 421 - 442 - 1 .487 Eagles (172-115-1)
NFC South 421 - 441 - 2 .487 Saints (157-131-0)
AFC West 401 - 463 - 0 .464 Broncos (169-119-0)
AFC East 395 - 469 - 0 .457 Patriots (214-74-0)
AFC North 389 - 472 - 3 .450 Steelers (188-99-1)
NFC North 389 - 474 - 1 .450 Packers (178-109-1)
AFC South 368 - 464 - 0 .442 Colts (180-108-0)
NFC West 382 - 479 - 3 .442 Seahawks (161-126-1)

Regardless how you run the numbers the AFC East is still not the easiest division, by a long shot.

Hopefully this puts to rest the myth of the "easy" AFC East.