Some teams will pick players based on where their highest possible outcome is. Some will pick based on their median outcome. Some won't pick players with low floors. Some pick players with high floors and hope to build. It varies from team to team, year to year.

So player analysis for the draft is never "this guy IS this"-- at least scouts don't do that, maybe some of the dummies on TV do. Scouts and smart draft guys will discuss a range outcomes, and they'll often center in on certain "swing skills." i.e. "he couldn't shoot 3s in college. if he can figure that out as a pro, he's an All-Star. if not, he's a lower-tier starter/bench rotation player."