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Forum nameOkay Sports
Topic subjectNFL Draft 2017
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=8&topic_id=2590128
2590128, NFL Draft 2017
Posted by will_5198, Tue Jan-17-17 01:26 PM
write-ups are on a whim. only who I care about, although I'll probably be getting to every top-50 prospect on defense eventually.

I'm bored watching offense, so nothing from me on this running back class, receivers, and unknown linemen. feel free to get some hot takes or agendas going, though.
2590130, QB DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
Posted by will_5198, Tue Jan-17-17 01:28 PM
He's the best quarterback prospect in the draft. There's inconsistencies, but he's the only one this year that gets me excited watching him -- he has at least two or three "wow" plays a game.

Firstly, his arm talent is incredible. I watched him in freezing, 20 MPH winds against Virginia Tech and the ball was flying out of his hand. He can make throws that plenty of current NFL quarterbacks will never be able to. Not just deep stuff, but also lasers into mailbox-sized windows while three defenders are a step away.

He also did a little more pro-style stuff than any of the other top guys. He had free reign to audible. Shotgun offense, but he played with 11 personnel almost exclusively, and they ran routes that weren't just nine variations of a screen pass. He's incredible when he makes a pre-snap read and gets what he expects on his drop. You cannot be vanilla against him.

He's got a NFL body, too (actually was overweight this past season). He did a bit of zone-read, and could be a Cam Newton-weapon at the goal-line -- he can put his foot in the ground and make you look bad, but you have to attack him because he's 250.

Plenty of reasons he's not going first overall, though. Runs hot and cold, so once he gets in a rut he can sink you for an entire quarter. Every game he missed throws that'll give his future coach permanent Nick Young face; I'm talking wide-open hitch routes he'll spike into the dirt five feet away. Gets a little first read happy and pocket presence is merely acceptable. As a winner he doesn't have a lot of notches on his belt either, for whatever that's worth.

So there's worries. But if his head is on right and he puts in the work, I'd want to have him on my team. The talent is there to build around.
2590131, QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Posted by will_5198, Tue Jan-17-17 01:30 PM
I want to like him more than I do. He's a winner, clutch in big games, has all the physical talent to play in the NFL, and his makeup seems like it's off the charts.

He doesn't do anything poorly, but he doesn't have a skill that's exceptional, either.

He routinely chooses the right option against defenses, yet Clemson's offense is filled with half-field rollout reads that won’t translate against pro defenses. He can be deadly accurate to all parts of the field and throws with great anticipation, but I'd say half his completions are not NFL-quality. A completed college pass does not equate to a good one in the NFL, especially when your top three receivers are contorting their bodies every Saturday to pull in simple throws. Leading a receiver is a 50/50 bet with him, even when they're wide-open.

His high number of interceptions were not a fluke, either. I watched at least eight games where defenses zone-blitzed him out of a six-man front, and dropped the backside defensive end into shallow robber coverage to disrupt the quick slant. Yet he kept throwing the slant, right into the defensive trap, for two seasons! Staring down high-low routes is another problem, as several interceptions came from underneath defenders peeling off their man and cutting under his throws. Both those coverages are NFL defense 101.

I guess the lesson to learn from Dak Prescott is that just because a quarterback has been in a simpler offense, doesn't mean he cannot run a more elaborate one. And Watson has enough tools to succeed: arm strength is plus, pocket presence good enough (he can handle A-gap blitzes without scrambling) and you figure he's got that whole leadership/hardest worker thing down.

But watching him in college I kept thinking his NFL ceiling is a solid-to-good, not good-to-great.
2590160, Agreed on pressure up the middle
Posted by cgonz00cc, Tue Jan-17-17 02:32 PM
I love the way he just slithers around it rather than break the pocket
2590163, Les Miles said he's more athletic than Dak and had more throws...
Posted by Dstl1, Tue Jan-17-17 02:38 PM
in his arsenal at this point that Dak did at that time. Is that fair?
2590171, given who he started the last decade
Posted by will_5198, Tue Jan-17-17 02:59 PM
not sure Les Miles knows a good QB when he sees one...

regardless though, I only casually studied Prescott in college. Watson can make every throw, but his accuracy has got to improve. he leaves a lot of yards on the field.

Prescott is a lot better at protecting himself. Watson seems like the kind that never gets rattled by a big hit, but he takes too many. a good NFL player is an available one.
2590296, Im the biggest Deshaun stan on this board
Posted by tomjohn29, Wed Jan-18-17 09:57 AM
he has had the best WR corp his whole career at Clemson and still threw a large amount of picks
The picks are a symptom of a bigger issue...he is wild loose with his accuracy
If he can improve his accuracy , shorten his arm motion and consistently through down the field...he will be a solid starter in the league
2590133, QB Mitch Trubisky, UNC
Posted by will_5198, Tue Jan-17-17 01:31 PM
I wanted to flat-out hate, but he does enough good things that I can’t write him off completely. When he's going well he's a powered up Alex Smith -- he can hit all those intermediate seams and tight windows, while being really good at the scramble drill. His offense was heavy on RPO, but he still got to his second read more often than Watson or Kizer. Also showed NFL-quality safety manipulation with his eyes at times.

His vertical passing game is shaky, though. Maybe it's a mechanics issue, but his deep passes are either accurate and way late (his guy open by five yards has to come to a standing stop) or on time and inaccurate. For every good 40-yard-plus throw he made, there were four terrible ones before and after.

Also, the one-year starting thing. UNC played about six defenses that could defend the pass this year, and his performances were mixed. Florida State, Miami and NC State -- he looked like a NFL quarterback. But he was bad against Georgia. Atrocious against Virginia Tech. Mediocre against Stanford.

He'd be the ideal prospect to take late first, early second, by a team that can Garoppolo him. Top five though? I don’t like anybody in this draft *that* much, and I'd be scared to put my franchise on his shoulders by reaching that hard.
2590178, if he doesn't go in the first... Texans?
Posted by Dr Claw, Tue Jan-17-17 03:30 PM
2590266, Texans would take him in the first
Posted by will_5198, Tue Jan-17-17 11:42 PM
but I don't see anyway he makes it to their 25th pick. five of the top six teams picking need a QB.
2590295, They need more than a QB which is why they're drafting this...
Posted by Creole, Wed Jan-18-17 09:52 AM
>but I don't see anyway he makes it to their 25th pick. five
>of the top six teams picking need a QB.

high. None of this year's QBs are immediately gonna help a team win.

I don't get these teams that believe a mediocre college rookie QB is gonna come in and set the world on fire. That's what first round picks are for IMO.
2590247, RE: QB Mitch Trubisky, UNC
Posted by Flash80, Tue Jan-17-17 08:09 PM
>His vertical passing game is shaky, though. Maybe it's a
>mechanics issue, but his deep passes are either accurate and
>way late (his guy open by five yards has to come to a standing
>stop) or on time and inaccurate. For every good 40-yard-plus
>throw he made, there were four terrible ones before and after.

this is what bothered me watching him in the sun bowl, since the 49ers are probably going to go QB, assuming shanahan takes the job. tribusky looked mad inconsistent, had the big pick-six, and a took a couple of back-breaking sacks.

re: kizer... didn't watch him much, but the idea of drafting a notre dame QB invariably scares me.
2590254, Don't worry, the Browns are drafting Kizer, but the 9ers would be lucky to get him
Posted by cgonz00cc, Tue Jan-17-17 09:21 PM
Cleveland ain't letting a native Ohioan slip by
2590267, Trubiskey is a native Ohioan too...one that Urban wanted
Posted by guru0509, Tue Jan-17-17 11:51 PM
>Cleveland ain't letting a native Ohioan slip by
2590268, He's not a #1 pick candidate in any year imo
Posted by cgonz00cc, Tue Jan-17-17 11:56 PM
2674087, RE: He's not a #1 pick candidate in any year imo
Posted by IsaIsaIsa, Fri Sep-28-18 07:04 PM

2590308, Cleveland always passes on buckeyes
Posted by 3xKrazy, Wed Jan-18-17 11:00 AM
Kinda funny actually
2590333, Pryor is about to be their first prominent Buckeye talent...wild
Posted by guru0509, Wed Jan-18-17 12:42 PM
>Kinda funny actually
2590340, like the great brady quinn?
Posted by Flash80, Wed Jan-18-17 01:15 PM
>Cleveland ain't letting a native Ohioan slip by
2590346, Oops nm
Posted by cgonz00cc, Wed Jan-18-17 01:43 PM
2590164, RE: NFL Draft 2017
Posted by COOLEHMAGAZINE, Tue Jan-17-17 02:40 PM
No offense at all??…you can't just leave your faithful flock to fend for themselves in these dark days of spread offenses and bust-on-delivery offensive tackles.

Have a heart
2590166, been burned too many times watching offense
Posted by will_5198, Tue Jan-17-17 02:53 PM
I think end-zone views are a necessity when watching running backs in college. receivers rarely get challenged the way they will in the NFL. even the best tight ends get like two targets a game.

and no matter what, about half a skill position players' success is due to the system they end up and who is around them. Tavon Austin is a flawed, bad route-running gadget player who can't separate against press coverage...but if he was in New England, Brady and Belichick would find a way to make him useful a la Dion Lewis.

maybe I'll put in a word about a couple tho.
2590288, Man...i really want you to talk about Fornette and Cook...
Posted by ChampD1012, Wed Jan-18-17 09:22 AM
I'm thinking Carolina is going to take one of these guys...

Or if you could do some of the top safeties in this draft, that would be awesome as well...but I'm not a huge fan of them taking a Safety with the 8th pick..
2590701, definitely want to talk about the safeties
Posted by will_5198, Fri Jan-20-17 03:19 AM
it's a really interesting group
2590320, Is there a correlation between pro offenses in college and pro success?
Posted by smutsboy, Wed Jan-18-17 11:57 AM
Some day when I have more time I'll look at the best 30 or whatever NFL QBs of the past 20 years and tally what kinds of offenses they ran in college.
2590336, its a crap shoot, its crazy that 7 QB's were drafted ahead of Dak
Posted by ThaTruth, Wed Jan-18-17 01:02 PM
2590337, I had my friend who's a college head help me:
Posted by smutsboy, Wed Jan-18-17 01:07 PM
I made a list of 18 or so QBs who were drafted around 2000 or after

A majority played in "pro" offenses. Though the data is weighted because other styles of offense are a lot more prevalent now than they were 15 or even 10 years ago.

I compiled this list quickly so it's hardly rigorous. I left out young guys like Dak. But 10 of the 15 were in pro offenses (plus whatever Romo & Flacco are)

Aaron Rodgers pro WC
Russell Wilson pro
Rapestburger spread pass
Matt Ryan pro
Eli Manning pro
Tom Brady pro
Matt Stafford pro
Drew Brees spread pass
Philip Rivers spread pass
Andrew Luck pro
Carson Palmer pro
Tony Romo ??
Peyton Manning pro
Cam Newton spread option 
Donovan McNabb option
Matt Hasselbeck pro
Joe Flacco ??
2590339, probably won't matter in 20 more years
Posted by will_5198, Wed Jan-18-17 01:14 PM
spread concepts are already more ubiquitous in the NFL over the last five years, and pro-style offenses are fewer every spring.

finding great quarterbacks has always been damn hard, even when the NFL and college were much more alike in their offensive philosophies. they picked busts from pro-style offenses back then too.
2590700, DE Myles Garrett, Texas A&M
Posted by will_5198, Fri Jan-20-17 03:13 AM
He's been hyped as the number one overall pick for several years now, and while he's an excellent prospect, he's not on the level as Joey Bosa or Jadeveon Clowney were coming out college.

Bosa was plug-and-play at either end position or rush linebacker. Clowney was more explosive with the same frame. And if he's going to a team that wants his hand off the ground, he's not going to be Khalil Mack or Von Miller. Garrett is a natural right defensive end, and he'll have to grow into his game in the NFL because he has some things to polish.

I'm not even judging him on this past season, because you could tell his explosion was gone while playing through an ankle injury. If anything I give him credit, since he could have easily shut it down with A&M going nowhere and April looming.

But going back to his sophomore year, you can see why he's coveted. He gets most of his pressure with a speed rush and club/rip; that's where he shows the must-have ability to dip the shoulder and keep rushing. Once he has that going, he'll use an inside counter, which is basically a fake step outside and hard slant. Very occasionally he drops in a developing spin move. His jump is good, but gets really good when he knows it's a passing down.

He does get reliant on that outside move, though. He has to build a bigger arsenal and also work on his punch -- he drops his hands for stretches of time and just tries to out-athlete linemen. Laremy Tunsil controlled him pretty well in their match-up two years ago when Garrett kept giving the same look. Better gap discipline too, but that really only hurts him in the run game when he tries to force the action.

Flaws aside, he does make some crazy plays. When UCLA was threatening at the goal-line in OT, he had an incredible, textbook rush and forced a bad throw by Rosen on third down. He saved a touchdown against Tennessee by rushing from the tackle spot and forcing a fumble. Against Alabama (2015) he nearly had a one-handed interception off a screen. In the Ole Miss game, he did intercept a screen. And he will fuck up your entire zone blocking front when you try and reach block him on runs.

So anybody that can do all that, while getting doubled and even triple-teamed in most big games, is pretty good. He seems like he's committed to improving, which is what he'll need to turn his pressures into sacks against NFL linemen. He's just not the generational talent that some have suggested.
2592665, S Jamal Adams, LSU
Posted by will_5198, Sun Jan-29-17 10:51 PM
I wish I could get more excited about him than I am. He's long, athletic as hell and gets downhill in a hurry (like most of this safety class). Mostly used in the box this past season, and is excellent at fighting through bodies. Makes a ton of run stops from the backside and you better not throw a screen to his side because he might kill someone. Your tight end and receivers need some dog in them too, because he'll crack them in the mouth the first time they try blocking him.

In passing sets, he lined up over the slot/detached tight end and played off-man or shallow cover three zone depending on the route. He’s good enough coverage-wise; awkward happy feet notwithstanding, he reads receivers' hips well and breaks on that tell. Long arms to disrupt the short stuff and the speed to turn and run deep.

All that said, I don't see him being able to step in as a huge playmaker. His hard reads in coverage means he's double-move susceptible, and that was exploited a lot this season. He's going to miss tackles in the NFL because he comes in out of control too much. His best plays are in pursuit near the line of scrimmage (he chased down Lamar Jackson from the opposite hash) and he can hold the fort in coverage, but I don't see a top ten pick -- just a solid addition to teams that need a box safety.