http://www.thenation.com/blog/196089/patriots-balls-and-christopher-hitchens?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=socialflow

Seattle Seahawk Richard Sherman was absolutely correct when he was asked earlier this week about whether the Patriots would be punished and he said, “Probably not. Not as long Robert Kraft and Roger Goodell are still taking pictures at their respective homes. He was just at Kraft’s house last week before the AFC Championship. Talk about conflict of interest. As long as that happens, it won’t affect them at all.”

This conflict of interest is very real. As GQ’s Gabriel Sherman wrote in a damning long read that dropped this week about Goodell, Kraft is apparently known among NFL execs as “the assistant commissioner.” Even this description is charitable. It’s less the relationship between an assistant and a commissioner as much as it is one between a hand and the bottom aperture of a puppet. Bob Kraft, in addition to being just a “friend of Goodell,” has been the great defender of nGoodell’s stunning $44 million salary. He was Goodell’s first defender during the release of information that showed that the NFL cared very little about domestic violence until tape went public of Ray Rice striking his wife Janay. He also, according to GQ, orchestrated Goodell’s disastrous defense of the NFL’s domestic violence policies, in conjunction with CBS network who was about to start airing its lucrative Thursday night NFL telecasts. Kraft ordered Goodell to speak to CBS and grant an interview to, in Kraft’s insistence “a woman,” who ended up being Norah O’Donnell. Goodell complied.

Drew Magary wrote, in analyzing the league’s deep concern with the optics of this, “ou can see that NFL higher-ups were far more concerned with LOOKING like they were handling domestic violence appropriately than actually doing so (cut to Eli Manning in a No More ad looking like you just told him that we’ve run out of cupcakes).

This relationship with Bob Kraft and the mere appearance of impropriety that marks how Goodell handles every issue that crosses his desk, tells its own story about why he must go. A reckless incompetence now defines everything he touches, whether it is his enforcing of the rules, the health and safety of players, or his dealings with the union. Instead of acting—like his predecessor Paul Tagliabue—as even the mildest of checks on the grasping of the bosses, he is their id unleashed. Instead of listening to players, Goodell is so comically distanced from the reality of his own ineptitude that he has become the sports version of Yertle the Turtle.

It is understandable why people do not care about the Patriots ball-maintenance or whether public officials lie about their sex lives. But we should care about people in power who hector us about our own morality as an exercise in spin. We should care about executives who punish workers by saying “ignorance is no excuse” while proudly being an ignoramus. If deflated balls are the small string that rips the sweater off of Roger Goodell, then we should grab it like we’re trying to tackle Marshawn Lynch, and hold on for dear life.

http://www.gq.com/sports/201502/roger-goodell-season-from-hell

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/1/26/7909353/roger-goodells-nfl-commissioner-favoritism-robert-kraft

Roger Goodell's history of favoritism, ambition and mooning
By Adam Stites  @AdamBCC on Jan 26 2015, 12:33p 16


The 2014 NFL season began with headaches for Roger Goodell and is finishing with another. After the domestic abuse case with Ray Rice and child abuse charges against Adrian Peterson were cast into the spotlight, Goodell's handling of the situations drew plenty of criticism. Now, all eyes are on the commissioner's impending handling of DeflateGate.

Many don't place much faith in Goodell making a fair ruling on the cheating allegations due to his inconsistent handling of punishments during his tenure and a friendship with New England Patriots' owner Robert Kraft. Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman called the relationship "a conflict of interest" and said he doesn't expect a punishment to be given to the Patriots.

In an in-depth feature on Goodell, GQ delved into the commissioner's popularity among owners, favoritism of certain ones (including Kraft) and his rise to become the most powerful person in the NFL's front office. Here are a few of the most important takeaways from GQ's profile:

1) Robert Kraft: "The assistant commissioner"

Sherman said Kraft and Goodell spend time at each other's houses and take pictures together, but the friendship between two of the NFL's most powerful men looks like it goes even deeper than that.

According to GQ, Kraft lobbied owners to issue statements publicly backing Goodell in the wake of TMZ's leaking of elevator footage showing Ray Rice striking and knocking his then-fiance unconscious. Kraft is called Goodell's "fiercest advocate and defender" by GQ, but one NFL executive has a different name for the Patriots' owner:

So large is Kraft's sway with Goodell that one veteran NFL executive likes to call him "the assistant commissioner."

Kraft also reportedly called and pushed for Goodell to go on the air with CBS News anchor Norah O'Donnell and throw a blanket on the fire that was building around the Rice story before it got out of control.


2) Some owners resent Goodell's favoritism

While many of the owners have been publicly supportive of Goodell, he isn't everyone's favorite. New Orleans Saints' owner Tom Benson resigned from three league committees in 2013 due to the league's harsh punishment for the team's bounty scandal in 2012 as well as Goodell's pay package.

The owner of the New York Jets isn't Goodell's biggest fan either, and that's due to the "preferential treatment" given to Kraft and others that are close to the commissioner:

It's also an open secret in league circles that some owners, especially Woody Johnson of the Jets, resent the preferential treatment Goodell is perceived to extend to his inner circle.

According to GQ, Goodell prepared himself well for the job as commissioner of the NFL before even getting the job by understanding the shifting balance of power among owners. Goodell understood the relationships and the culture of the league and rose to power as the "old guard ceded influence to a new generation" or powerful owners, including Kraft, Jerry Jones and Jerry Richardson.

3) Goodell pushed for Paul Tagliabue to step down

Goodell's career with the NFL began in 1982 as an administrative intern and eventually resulted in him rising all the way to become the NFL's executive vice president and chief operating officer in December 2001. He had to wait five more years before Paul Tagliabue stepped down and that was almost too long for Goodell to be patient, according to GQ.

By 2005, Goodell was agitating for Tagliabue to step down. At one point, Goodell even considered a job offer from ESPN, but Tagliabue persuaded him to stay at the league.

Tagliabue, who retired at age 65, held the position for 17 years and was called upon by Goodell to conduct an independent appeals hearing for the 2012 Saints' bounty case. He affirmed Goodell's findings, but overturned all players suspensions, including a season-long ban given to linebacker Jonathan Vilma.

4) Goodell has a frat boy side

In September, South Park characterized Goodell as a malfunctioning robot. It's often difficult to see the clunky representative of 32 billionaires as anything other than a suit and a tie with prepared soundbites, but a flashback to his time at Washington & Jefferson College shows a different side of Goodell. His backside.

To earn extra money during his junior and senior years, he tended bar at the Landmark, a popular spot in the shadow of the football stadium. Tim Foil, the Landmark's former owner, remembered Goodell as a hard worker and a bit of a prankster. "He'd do crazy things behind the bar," Foil recalled. "One wall of my bar was a glass walk-in cooler, and he'd like to go in there and flash people. He'd give 'em the old butt."

In Goodell's tenure as commissioner, the NFL has grown richer and more powerful, but is drawing criticism at an all-time high. Whether that criticism comes from inconsistent punishments or the handling of concussions, Goodell's impact on the league in his nine seasons as commissioner has been visible and even measurable.

The 'rogue ball boy' theory won't hold water.

There's several reports calling into question the refs' handling of the "inspection" before this and many other games.

You don't trust the boston globe now? It's a big conspiracy?

According to homer yahoos like yourself calling into WEEI and 98.5 - the rogue ball boy is the most popular ridiculous theory by people who cannot accept that their team is a habitual cheater.

The Globe has reported a lot of things that weren't true. And that "report" came from the league. So yea, it's called into question and has been reported as untrue.

Enjoy the Super Bowl on Sunday.

Please pay attention and link me to a single reliable source indicating that the refs mishandled the pre-game inspection.

Reliable means a top-tier newspaper or news outlet (CBS, ESPN, FOXSPORTS) or one of the big 3 - Mort, Scheft, Glazer.

instance of me getting a report wrong or missing important information.

I know what is known. I know who reported.

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/01/stats_show_the_new_england_patriots_became_nearly_fumble_proof_after_a_2006.html?wpsrc=fol_tw

(via poetx in the other thread)

http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/01/150126_SN_chart03.jpg.CROP.original-original.jpg

That picture shows the difference in the Pats' fumble rate BEFORE and AFTER the 2007 rule change that Brady lobbied for (which allowed home teams to supply their own balls).

that shit is crazy. and while correlation != causation, i am open to ANYONE who can provide a plausible explanation for such a glaring statistical 'anomaly' between the Pats and the rest of the league.

btw, it can't be coaching methods, because ex pats players who went to other teams immediately reverted to the mean as far as fumble rate. so either they were on some magic shit, or this cheating thing is real.

here's the whole article:

http://t.co/xOGrR27BjT


(SWIPE)

Dropped Balls
The Patriots became nearly fumble-proof after a 2006 rule change backed by Tom Brady.
By Warren Sharp

http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/01/150126_SN_chart03.jpg.CROP.original-original.jpg


Tom Brady of the New England Patriots “The thing is, every quarterback likes a little bit different,” Tom Brady said at the time he was pushing for the rule change.

Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images

In light of the ongoing ball deflation scandal consuming the New England Patriots, football data analyst Warren Sharp revisited the Patriots’ extraordinary recent fumble statistics that he covered last week and found something even more surprising. A slightly different version of this post first appeared on Sharp’s own site. It is reprinted with his permission.

While speculation exists that “Deflategate” was a one-time occurrence, data I introduced last week indicated that the phenomena could have potentially been an ongoing, long-standing issue for the New England Patriots. That possibility now looks much clearer.

Initially, looking at weather data, I noticed the Patriots performed extremely well in the rain, much more so than they were projected to. I followed that up by looking at the fumble data, which showed, regardless of weather or site, that the Patriots’ prevention of fumbles was nearly impossible. Ironically, both studies saw the same exact starting point: Something started for the Patriots in 2007 that is still going on today.

I wanted to compare the New England Patriots’ fumble rate from 2000, when coach Bill Belichick first arrived in New England, with the rest of the NFL. One thing I found in my prior research was that dome teams fumble substantially less frequently, given that they play at least eight-plus games out of the elements each year. To keep every team on a more level playing field, I eliminated dome teams from the analysis, grabbed only regular season games, and defined plays as pass attempts added with rushes and times sacked. The below results also look only at total fumbles, not just lost fumbles. This brought us to the ability to capture plays per fumble.

To confirm something was dramatically different in New England, starting in 2007 and running through the present, I compared the 2000–06 time period (when the Patriots won all of their Super Bowls) with the 2007–2014 time period. The beauty of data is that results speak for themselves:
150126_SN_chart01

Courtesy of Warren Sharp

This chart is jaw-dropping, and the visual perfectly depicts what happened. From a more technical perspective, John Candido, a data scientist at ZestFinance who is a colleague of mine over at the NFLproject.com website and was also involved in the development of this research, comments:

Based on the assumption that plays per fumble follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten since 2007 once in 5,842 instances.

Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0001711874 probability to win. In other words, it’s very unlikely that results this abnormal are only due to the endogenous nature of the game.

While these data do not prove the Patriots deflated footballs starting in 2007, we know they were interested in gaining control of their own footballs in 2006. (This is something I found out after I performed the first two analyses, both of which independently found that something changed starting in 2007.)

In 2006, Tom Brady (and Peyton Manning) lobbied in favor of changing an NFL rule that mandated home teams provided game balls for both teams. Brady wanted the NFL to let every team provide its own footballs to use on offense, even when that team was playing on the road. After Brady and Manning’s efforts, the NFL agreed to change the rule. Prior to that change, there would be relatively little advantage to playing with deflated footballs because both teams would be using the same balls.



“The thing is, every quarterback likes it a little bit different,” Brady said at the time he was pushing for the change. “Some like them blown up a little bit more, some like them a little more thin, some like them a little more new, some like them really broken in.”

You can clearly see the demarcation line on the following two graphs. The data are the same, but details are added in the second graph to provide additional information and context:
150126_SN_chart02
150126_SN_chart03

Charts courtesy of Warren Sharp

Once again, a key takeaway is deadly obvious: Prior to 2007 the Patriots were right in line with the league averages across the other nondome teams. When you look team by team, they literally are in the middle of the pack for most seasons. But starting in 2007, all similarities totally vanish.

The statistical “jump” the Patriots make in the 2006 offseason, from one fumble every 39 plays to one fumble every 76 plays is nothing short of remarkable. Their trend line over this period is not even close to that of the rest of the NFL.

The 2013 season is an oddity in that the Patriots were actually slightly worse than the rest of the NFL. Looking at that season, it’s apparent the reason: Of the Patriots’ 23 fumbles that season, six occurred in a single Sunday night game against the Broncos. That game was played in 22-degree weather, with 22 mph winds, and a wind chill of 6 degrees (cold conditions of this nature causing more fumbles than usual). It was this Week 12 “arctic” game and a Week 17 game against the Bills—which saw four fumbles—that really put the Patriots fumble rates for 2013 out of sync. This is exactly why looking at small sample sets, such as single seasons, is not the preferred method for these types of analyses.

Why are fumbles so important? Because as Bill Belichick knows, perhaps as good as anyone, turnovers usually control game outcomes. Since 2000, teams who won the turnover battle won 79 percent of their games, regardless of any other statistic. It’s clear how vital turnovers should be in the minds of intelligent coaches. As far as turnovers are concerned, the No. 1 issue for a team with a quarterback as skilled and proficient as Tom Brady is not interceptions (because there won’t be many), it’s fumbles.

Many arguments have been raised to try to explain why the Patriots don’t fumble as often as other teams. Many of them are challenged by some of the data. If it were coaching, former players should be able to tell us that Bill Belichick suddenly and drastically changed the way he instructed players to carry the football in the 2006 offseason. But the data show that if a mysterious trade secret were delivered, the players forgot about it when they left New England, as their individual fumble rates became drastically worse when playing for other NFL teams.

Top Comment

A few things: 1) It's an interesting chart, and I applaud the author for listening to criticism and dropping the "fumbles lost" table, which is a bad stat to use. More...

-Benton Love

595 Comments Join In

The bottom line is, something happened in New England. It happened just before the 2007 season, and it completely changed this team. Any NFL investigations into allegations that the Patriots played regularly with deflated footballs would be wise to reference my research herein and to begin starting in 2006. That was when Tom Brady was able to help persuade the NFL to change its rules to allow him (and other quarterbacks) to provide their own footballs for all road games. I will reiterate, this analysis cannot say it was, undoubtedly, illegal football deflation that caused the data abnormalities. But it does conclude that something absolutely changed, and it was not the result of simple random fluctuation.

Because I was asked so often for the data that I used in the first analysis, as a courtesy, I am going to link to an excel file with all the summary data used to create the graphics shown above.

Warren Sharp runs the football analytics site Sharp Football Analysis.




peace & blessings,

x.

www.twitter.com/poetx

=========================================
I'm an advocate for working smarter, not harder. If you just
focus on working hard you end up making someone else rich and
not having much to show for it. (c) mad

yeah, I saw this stat

I think MSNBC ran it

to think that a deflated ball improves the grip

FOR EVERYBODY

HAHA!!!

As I noted in the other thread, Blount's rushing fumble ratio for Tampa Bay and NE is EXACTLY the same and almost the same for Pittsburgh (a whopping six more carries without a fumble would make him even.)

The difference is his fumbles per reception. 1 fumble every 7 catches in Tampa Bay. He only has six catches in NE. So not only did the Pats simply not use someone in the passing game because he showed a propensity to fumble but if Blount fumbled his next catch, his fumble rate would be exactly the same in Tampa Bay as in NE.

That's the funny thing about the way these stats are being presented, in many cases, we're talking about the difference of one or two fumbles. And then they are also including return fumbles which don't even use the footballs in question AND they aren't taking into the return touches into their figures. They claimed that Brandon Tate fumbled 11 times on 35 touches when, according to ESPN, he's never fumbled a rush or reception while in Cincy.

he might be right, but without removing special teams (K-ball), splitting run vs. pass plays, and remove QB fumbles (driven largely by sacks taken/protection/scheme) and see if it holds. but no, he doesn't do that. instead, the only adjustment he makes is for dome teams because that goes in the direction he wants to find. and it should NEVER be a measure of lost fumbles. losing fumles or not is irrelevant to the argument.

other things that changed a lot in 2007 include the patriots' offensive schemes and personnel.

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

from (yes, a pats fan): http://drewfustin.com/2015/01/27/patriots-fumble-comments/

"I claim that not only are the New England Patriots not an impossible outlier in fumble efficiency, they're not an outlier at all. I can show this simply by exactly recreating Sharp's analysis but correcting for merely one omission from the data set: instead of eliminating all dome teams from the sample set, only remove games played indoors. I will also highlight the choice of what I believe to be a biased an unfair comparison metric (the 5-year rolling average in plays per fumble), the use of which still only looks like damning evidence if dome teams are removed from the analysis. I will also attempt to calculate the actual probability of the Patriots having this current run of success in fumble efficiency, although admittedly my calculation is not perfect. It's a physicist's approximation. Finally, I will argue that while the Patriots did drastically improve in fumble efficiency in 2007 and following, without the prior assumption of guilt in cheating, there are numerable other explanations for this team to improve."

reading the analysis, it's not terrible. at least it runs statistical analyses. it's not great either and it's definitely written by a pats fan and i don't know what he did to special teams fumbles.

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

here's another analysis with the exact same flaws!

but I like this one!

and i'm saying they both are flawed and thus, the null hypothesis (fumble rate isn't affected by deflategate) can't be rejected.

mad?

make more sense.
-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

'i don't like it because it doesn't account for special teams'

'here's one I like better that proves what I want to be true but also doesn't take into account the very first thing I criticized the main article for. also I am saying the original article is terrible while also admitting that it has some merit.'

and found someone who investigated one of the flaws (but not the one I would have investigated). in another comment thread, someone did what soulhonky is talking about w/ regard to returning/receiving/rushing fumbles. in other threads, i saw someone point out that QB fumbles drive the team differences and Brady--like most elite QBs--doesn't fumble much and that spread offense QBs also may be less likely to fumble as they're less likely to be strip-sacked.

another post claimed someone had shown that scheme accounts for roughly 50% of all fumbles (though provided no link, so i couldn't evaluate that claim).

there are tons of possible explanations. the original article didn't do a good job analyzing it at all. the one i quoted from was but one example of someone digging at one of those flaws and showing how much it biased the results.


-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

hence, it might be right. that doesn't mean his analysis was anything other than pure shit (it was). his analysis didn't prove anything. the efforts to prove him wrong have shown his analysis was bad/biased/sloppy but are not definitive proof of anything (partly because you can't prove a negative).

you might be right to have an elimination party on sunday. you might also be wrong for the third time.

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

The assumptions and data manipulation are too much to overlook and say there's really something there.

>btw, it can't be coaching methods, because ex pats players who
>went to other teams immediately reverted to the mean as far as
>fumble rate. so either they were on some magic shit, or this
>cheating thing is real.

Here are the numbers when someone (non-Pats fan) took out return touches and fumbles (since those football weren't impacted by the rule change.)
http://i.imgur.com/LUItjmz.png

The fumble ratio on receptions was 101 catches per fumble (17 fumbles on 1731 catches) while on the Pats and 94 catches per fumble (36 on 3419) when they weren't on the Patriots. You know how you makes those stats almost even? Add 1 fumble. 1 more fumble for the Pats and they are down to 96.

As for the fumble ratio on rushes, as I've noted before, the difference is essentially Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Take The Law Firm out of the equation and suddenly the ratios are suddenly 133 rushes while guys are on the Pats (17 on 1741) and 98 rushes per fumble (45 on 4452) when not on the Patriots. How many actual fumbles does that equal. 5. Over 7 years.

So basically, these crazy impossible numbers that show the Patriots are doing something dastardly equal The Law Firm and 1.71 fumbles a year.

No fumbles in college either. Better check those balls at Indiana and Old Miss.

that tells you all you need to know about Goddell and Kraft

>that tells you all you need to know about Goddell and Kraft

.
.
.
"Today is your day to have a better life -- it's your right."

So not putting the ball on the ground has nothing to do with them playing the AFC East bums twice a year? I mean that's the reason for their NFL dominance...or at least it was.

I thought them turning into a soft/finesse team around 2007 also would account for the drop in fumbles, no? Running out of bounds and away from tacklers, not initiating contact, falling on the ground after making catches, etc. etc. what happened to all of that stuff? No longer relevant?

Just checking where things stand. I want to make sure that that it's at least 50% cheating, 40% soft schedules and 10% leftover Salem Witchcraft by kickoff time this Sunday.

than whether the Patriots cheat.

It's messing with my emotions. I've already burned most of my jerseys. I'm down to Mosi Tatupu at this point.


Why Those Statistics About The Patriots' Fumbles Are Mostly Junk:

http://regressing.deadspin.com/why-those-statistics-about-the-patriots-fumbles-are-mos-1681805710/+kylenw

but it is fun to watch them squirm, ain't it

it confirms that the Patriots have one of the lowest fumble rates in the NFL, but suggests that the original article might have used some poor analysis to exaggerate the extent to which the Pats are outliers. It also attempts to offer alternative explanations for the low fumble rate, but it

DOES NOT

in any way change the fact that the Pats were caught with obviously doctored footballs and the Pats have enjoyed one of the lowest fumble rates in the NFL since the rule change Tom Brady lobbied for took effect.

It's one thing to say people are over-exaggerating the effect under-inflated footballs can have on the games, but that does nothing at all to change the fact the Pats were caught cheating, and it would be childishly naive to think that cheating only occurred during the one AFC championship game where they were caught.

Are they still playing Sunday? If so, how many fumbles shall I expect?

the article thoroughly demolishes the claim that the pats are outliers. so being consistently in the good tier of fumbling rates is much harder to link to a supposed 7 years of cheating.

instead, we know they had underinflated balls (now not clear how underinflated) in one game and might have had them in one other one (also unclear how underinflated or if true). The fumble rates were treated by many (just see the other post) as some sort of smoking gun of a 7 year span of cheating that rule, but they aren't.

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

the Pats are cheaters. 11 of 12 balls were tampered with (obviously leaving 1 for kicking). Let's stop pretending like there's some kind of "mystery" here. No matter their denials, the Pats were doctoring the balls. Remember how many denials Lance Armstrong made? The dude destroyed his critics' careers, all while cheating the entire time.

The only point for debate was what effect, if any, that doctoring had. Regardless of the extent to which they were outliers, it seems pretty clear they enjoy a very strong advantage w/r/t fumbling compared to other NFL teams. It's not some great leap to connect this to cheating.

So certain other NFL teams enjoy somewhat similar rates? Maybe they're cheating, too. Just stop with this self-serving criteria of "proof" being required in order to present entirely plausible interpretations of available data. Just because some of the data is presented sensationally doesn't diminish the rather obvious advantage the known cheaters have enjoyed since this rule change took effect.

And I don't know what punishment is appropriate, but fuck the Pats. They're cheaters. And Spygate will always be the much more damning bit of cheating, even though Pats fans like to pretend that wasn't a complete scandal, so this is really just the after-party. Let America have it.

i already said I think something shady happened. But the arguments that this had an effect on fumble rates is fucking pathetic stat arguments, and you know I'm the guy who bitches about that on the board all the time.

It's a sign of anyone's bias if they think the sharp analysis isn't pure shit and they claim to like statistical analyses. Because it is and it's obvious.

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

already we got people just plain making up stuff about the weather, trying to confuse things by saying we don't know if it's Bill or Tom, acting like Rodgers' preference for over-inflated balls has any relevance to the Pats cheating, talking about a lack of "proof" outside of this one half of football and yadda yadda yadda.

The Pats cheated.

The fumble stats, like any stat, is proof of nothing. It only has meaning in context. And in the context that the Pats have most likely been cheating since the rule change Tom Brady lobbied for took effect, the most likely and easiest explanation is that cheating has helped them. You can cook up any number of alternate interpretations or downplay the significance of looking at fumble rates, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the simplest, most straight-forward, least complicated and easy to understand explanation is the Pats are cheaters (kinda like their mythical 2nd half adjustments during the Spygate era).

Somehow Spygate has turned into an unfortunate little bit of just wanting to win too hard for Bill Belicheck, when there's a very plausible scenario where the fortunes of multiple teams across multiple years were adversely affected by Belicheck's cheating. Now the culture of cheating and denial is playing out again and I don't want this to just become another *shrug*-guess-we'll-never-know story again. We know. They're cheaters. It's not complicated.

Unless...oh no...could it...nah no way...could the ball boy have tampered with one of the K balls? I mean Vinatieri had a massive miss during that game. Did he have access to the Colts K balls? I'm sick to my stomach now.

It's coming and the world will be even more mad. cere is going to rise into the air and hover like the Phoenix and try to destroy the world. It will be interesting.

;)

travel can be though.

so, try again.

petition here, now over 60,000 signatures:
https://www.change.org/p/nfl-immediately-disqualify-patriots-and-replay-afc-championship-between-the-colts-and-ravens

the people are revolting. no one wants to see the AFC represented by a team that cheated to get there. obviously, the petition is just a symbolic gesture, but if public sentiment really tips on this, bernie madoff and lance armstrong... sorry, bill belichick and tom brady might actually have to face some legitimate consequences this time.


http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-petition-patriots-super-bowl-20150127-htmlstory.html
Petition to boot Patriots from Super Bowl tops 57,000 — What's your view?
By RYAN PARKER

More than 57,000 people want to see the New England Patriots kicked out of Super Bowl XLIX in the wake of Deflategate.

Of course, that's not going to happen, but it is another example of fans' ire concerning the possibility that the Patriots broke the rules to better their chances.

The petition on change.org isn't just calling for the Pats to be bounced from the big game, but for AFC championship to be replayed between the Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens, the two teams that played the Pats in the postseason.

"To maintain the legitimacy of this year's NFL championship the Patriots should be immediately disqualified and the two teams they beat to advance should be allowed to continue with the playoff process," according to petition author Scott Latshaw. "If we had stopped Barry Bonds or Lance Armstrong at the onset, think how much better things would be."

The investigation into the scandal, which has overshadowed much of the usual attention in the time leading up the Super Bowl, reportedly will not be conclude until after the big game.

The Patriots have maintained the team -- especially Coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady -- is innocent of any wrongdoing.

POLL: After 'Deflategate', what team do you think should be playing Seattle in the Super Bowl?

Colts - 43.9%
Patriots - 36.2%
Ravens - 19.3%

This is legitimately HYSTERICAL.

that's had no legitimate success in almost 20 years? must be hysterical.

New England is drowning in all your tears! Stop it, we got a Super Bowl to watch!

playing with nerf footballs, right? your coach is a fraud. your team is a joke.

WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH hahahahaha dude honestly. Stop. It's too much. I'm getting ready to watch my team in another Super Bowl.

you don't have to do all that to cover up your embarrassment. we know. it's okay.

You guys are too much. Hope you enjoy the Super Bowl on Sunday. The Pats are in it. Again.

reading all these overdone fake laughs, i can almost see the tears building in your eyes. you should stop, really. it's okay.

All I see is crying over here and it's hysterical.

WAHHHHHHH MY TEAM ISNT IN THE SUPER BOWL. WAHHHHHHHH THE PATRIOTS KEEP WINNING AND I CANT FIGURE OUT WHY. WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

I almost feel sorry for you whiny losers at this point. Almost.

Enjoy the Super Bowl, playa. The Pats are in it. Again.

we're almost buying your lack of embarrassment.

Hahahahahahahahahahaha.

Can't wait for the Super Bowl.

that you're actually laughing out loud instead of crying. try again.

nice and quiet. shhhhhh...

I'm sure they'll give you a shoulder to cry on.

Poor thing.

I know its been exactly 20 since the 49ers cheated their way to a SB

to compete on a level playing field for the past 15 years.

C'mon man. Get on that.

How about we run back those AFC Championship L's that your boys caught. Where's Kordell Stewart at? Work with him on those votes. Steeler Nation needs you.

http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/12241615/nfl-investigator-seeks-contact-columbia-university-physics-department-deflategate-probe

wouldn't the IND footballs being within the proper metrics immediately eliminate weather as a possibility?

Maybe Columbia can explain to the NFL how statistics works

i.e., 11 out of 12 balls being under inflated is not an accident.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=12226227

if the pats balls were already at the lower end of the range and the colts balls were already at the higher end of the range they could both deflate about 1 PSI and the colts balls would still be legal.

went from 12.5 to 11.5 and were fine.

And 11 patriots balls went from 11.5 to....? 10.5? 9.5? Whatever the range it seems pretty unlikely that at least once Colts ball wouldn't drop 1.1. And if the balls were 11.5 - wouldn't it happen all the time that balls deflate? It wasn't even that cold and the league plays games in all sorts of climates where this hasn't been an issue.

I'm willing to bet that the investigators would have noticed that all 24 balls dropped a similar rate from ref inspection till halftime and this would be a non-issue.

And on top of that, we don't quite know what the Pats balls were but it seems likely it's range of 9.5-10.5.

Of course, this is also not considering that teams apparently had suspicions about the Patriots doing this already.

And also, the science doesn't seem to support significant deflation in that period of time. I thought the problem was that they get rubbed too hard?

the legal range is 12.5-13.5.

so let's say the pats inflated to 12.5 and there's some level of gauge error, so they're all somewhere between 12.3 and 12.7. The colts do the same thing, but hover around 13.5.

all footballs drop 1 psi in the cold, let's say (similarly, it's unclear if they were 2 psi low or 1 psi low. PFT says it was 1 psi below, not 2. only 1 was 2 below: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/25/nfl-bears-plenty-of-blame-for-deflategate/). If the pats were at 12.5, that explains 11 of their 12 balls. if the colts were at 13.5, they'd still be properly inflated. the only ball that wasn't properly inflated, in that world, is the one that got picked. physicists disagree on whether or not temp change could lead to a 1 psi drop. some say yes, others no.

(also, they checked the colts balls? anywhere say that? i've been wondering if they bothered. and where. it seems clear that the halftime check was outside, not inside)

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

>
>(also, they checked the colts balls? anywhere say that? i've
>been wondering if they bothered. and where. it seems clear
>that the halftime check was outside, not inside)

Cause nobody mentions that they actually checked. Everyone just assumes they have.

https://twitter.com/BartHubbuch/status/558028449764622338

you also agree that something shady likely happened, though.

it seems very unlikely to me that all 24 balls would drop the same PSI across the board and that they were all legally inflated to the same PSI across each team's balls.

it's the year 2015. they've been playing football for a log time in weather a lot colder and a lot worse than that day.

we'd know by now if a balmy 50-degree day would have such drastic results.

i can only assume they don't do halftime checks at every game so by this rate - every ball in every game at 50-degrees or lower would have balls deflate at least 2 PSI every time over a full game.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/28/its-easy-to-quickly-deflate-a-football/

On Tuesday’s PFT Live on NBC Sports Radio, for example, I inserted a needle for a few seconds into a ball that had been inflated to 13.5 PSI. A loud hiss emerged, and when the needle was removed it was easier to squeeze the ball. It became clear to me then that, if someone wanted to deflate 10-12 balls in 90 seconds, it would indeed be possible.

Gersh Kuntzman of the New York Daily News performed a more organized test, taking 12 balls that had been inflated to 13 PSI and removed two PSI in a total of 40 seconds. Adding in the time necessary to open the bag and to access the balls and to enter and exit the bathroom, the exercise took 77 seconds.

Kuntzman isn’t the only one who has done it. One highly-placed official with an NFL team “took the top off” a dozen balls in a mere 56 seconds.

if he was deflating them the bathroom possibly offers a locked door but I'm willing to bet that it's still against rules for him to take them into the bathroom so he wouldn't want to be seen.

you mean 90 seconds is more than enough time to doctor 12 footballs? who could've seen this coming? #90secondsgate
http://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=8&topic_id=2412739&mesg_id=2412739&page=2#2415515

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/the-other-patriots-conspiracy-theory--legarrett-blount-s-scheme-to-reunite-with-bill-belichick-233502306-nfl.html

Raiders didn't need another running back?

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/535195363721097216

because it's not because they're good but because they are dirty.

is that what you like?

Model franchise. Much integrity. Just win baby!

Was it the magic of Jeff Hostetler and James Jett?

Patterns of systemic rule breaking, cheating, and exploitations of rules did not exist in the NFL before then.

gramps

has wiped out a decade and a half of your team's success. pats could have legitimately gotten to a couple super bowls, maybe won one. people were even starting to buy into your (ringless) post-spygate success. now your team's a joke. y'all should just change your helmet logo to an asterisk.

Model franchise. Much integrity. Right?

"We had people that always tried to steal signals. Stealing someone’s signals was a part of the game, and everybody attempted to do that." - Bill Cowher

http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2014/01/15/bill-cowher-everybody-tried-to-steal-signals-not-just-belichick/

“Some teams — who were not the Steelers — after the officials had checked and approved the game balls, would let out a couple of pound of air to make it easier for the quarterback to grip it." - Terry Bradshaw

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1211662-deflating-balls-was-a-common-practice-until-15-years-ago-terry-bradshaw-says/

ZERO legitimate titles in 55 years? does it burn? when you're watching games, do the tears forming in the corners of your eyes sting a little bit? do you ever reminisce about the days when you had a team that wasn't terrified of competing on a level playing field? do you ever check your bank accounts to make sure your coach hasn't skimmed any money from them?

steelers have six titles, by the way. most in the league. it's pretty sweet, if you're wondering.

i have one with the logos of our six championships printed on it. roll it up, sleep like a baby.

or even illegal in the u.s. till the late '80s, thus making whatever point you're trying to reach for idiotic?

http://youtu.be/BKetF7cUJEc

everyone does it: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12244290/ex-quarterback-jeff-blake-deflating-footballs-common

it's become such a time-honored tradition at this point to have your team's locker room assistant sneak the game balls into a bathroom before the game and tamper with them. it's a pre-coin-flip ritual that's so treasured, i'd be surprised if they didn't televise it for the super bowl.

yet to date only one team has had their video collections destroyed by Roger Goodell.

We'll believe you cheating is more widespread when other teams get caught for cheating.

if you can't grasp that difference, don't know what to tell you.

?

lol @ a completely false either/or scenario which has no equivalency to stealing signals or doctoring equipment.

if everybody does it, every qb knows they do it, and brady is acting this way he's just lying then, got it

and national bias in this waste of time "scandal".

NFL reports last week that the refs went thru proper protocols in checking the balls before the game and approved them.

Blandino comes out yesterday and says they didn't log the PSI levels of the balls, which means they didn't gauge them, which means they didn't go thru the proper protocols. Per THE RULES, the REFS are responsible for making sure the balls are at the proper levels, NOT the teams. Once they're approved by the refs, any issues are on THEM and THE LEAGUE. The NFL lied and you all believed them again.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

I cannot WAIT for the NFL to apologize to the Pats. Kraft will have Goodell on his fucking knees blowing the entire team.

Two more days til the Pats play in another Super Bowl!

And, if there is 'no log' that does mean everything else suddenly isn't true.

In fact, I can't find a single instance of anyone here claiming there's a log based on some 'incompetent' reporting.

Don't get so excited.

You jump to wild conclusions over a new 'report' and then give up on it when it goes back the other day.

LOL at the irony in "you have nothing"

Poor thing.

Clearly there's something. We're like 800 posts into this.

you having trouble sleeping? your self esteem and self worth too tied up in being a fan of a team without integrity?

still trying to figure out how nearly two weeks of a still-ongoing investigation into systematic cheating and rule-breaking won't tarnish your team's reputation?

running out to walmart to buy a dozen footballs to play scientist to prove it's all just a sick joke by the NFL?

trying to come to terms with the silly idea that we shouldn't believe what the league says although this team's owner is best friends with the commissioner?

still salty over the criticism over the 'innovative' formations but can't accept that the illegal touchdown by an offensive lineman kind-of proves the criticism to be true?

I get it man. You're such a hardcore fan. When the patriots lose it hurts you deep inside and when they win you really good! When they win it's almost like you win! There's no way these heroes of yours are systematic cheaters and habitual line-steppers. Nahhh....how could all those moments of glory be ... false.

I'd help you but I don't like you so I'll continue to just mock you for having a childish sense of identity.

Not convincing each other of anything.


So...does it matter?

Or vice-versa?

It's undeniable they did something to the balls, I think we are past the point of denial on that. But the spectrum represented in here is either: "just bending the rules to create a competitive advantage" all the way to "Holocaust 2.0". Shades of grey and, again, do you really think it statistically mattered, that football at this level can be that significantly effected by an under-inflated football?

Spygate was one thing, because the advantage created there was huge. But this?

I just like arguing with irrational people. There's a reason he and Jon are the only Pats fans still posting about it - everyone else is distancing themselves from the obvious shit show.

But you know my steez. I'll never stop talking about the systematic cheating and rule-breaking by this regime.

that steez becomes your lifeblood. So tragic.

as opposed to playing along.

http://nesn.com/2015/01/nate-solders-touchdown-in-afc-championship-game-was-illegal-says-nfl/

Nate Solder’s touchdown catch in the AFC Championship Game seemed too good to be true. Probably because it was. Dean Blandino, the NFL’s vice president of officiating, said Thursday that Solder’s improbable TD grab against the Indianapolis Colts shouldn’t have counted because the New England Patriots used an illegal formation on the play. “There was an issue on that play where on the previous play, (Cameron) Fleming had reported as an eligible player,” Blandino told reporters in Arizona. “And on the Solder touchdown he went back to playing an ineligible position. That’€™s illegal. That’€™s an illegal substitution. “So that’€™s something we discussed with the crew. (Patriots head coach) Bill (Belichick) was made aware of it. So we’€™re going to be looking for that, make sure we follow the proper mechanics so that doesn’€™t happen again.” Fleming, by rule, would have needed to sit out one play in order to go from eligible to ineligible — unless there was a penalty, a timeout or it was the end of the quarter — and he did not, thus making Solder’s touchdown illegal. It’s not as if the league is going to retroactively take away Solder’s touchdown — the first catch and first TD of the offensive lineman’s NFL career — but the officials undoubtedly will keep a watchful eye on New England’s formations in the team’s Super Bowl XLIX showdown with the Seattle Seahawks.

The refs missed it, that's on them.

Illegal formations are called, like, 15x per game bro. On every single team in the league.

You are so desperate it's hilarious.

Poor thing.

The Patriots 'know the rules better than everyone else?' right?

The Patriots scored illegally, in a game they cheated in, a week after they allegedly exploited the rule book to use new formations.

It's the Sprawl.

Totally 'an accident' that their OL scored a touchdown on an illegal formation.

The week before Bill's a genius for these formations.

Oops.

Watching Cere and others become unglued has been fun.

the only two unglued people are jon and brew.

that's why the rest of your team's fans are MIA. they gave up and want to distance themselves.

some fitzy-ass homer trying to call me pathethic just proves my point. no other ground to stand on.

it's kinda...weak.

Fuck. How often does that even happen? Where's Walt Coleman when you need him?

the patriots are under scrutiny for exploiting rulebook language to run out controversial formations.

one week later an o-lineman catches a td pass on an illegal play.

please connect the dots. don't make me do it for you.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/29/nfl-didnt-log-the-psi-of-each-patriots-football/

NFL didn’t log the PSI of each Patriots football

Posted by Michael David Smith on January 29, 2015, 5:30 PM EST
Football
Getty Images
What was the precise PSI of each of the 12 footballs the Patriots’ offense used in the AFC Championship Game? We’ll probably never know.

NFL head of officiating Dean Blandino confirmed today that the NFL didn’t log the exact PSI of each football. According to Blandino, when officials inspect footballs to see if they’re properly inflated, they simply approve them or disapprove them.

In other words, although the Patriots did play with under-inflated footballs, the NFL hasn’t kept detailed records of whether those footballs were slightly under-inflated (which could be the result of a change in temperature) or significantly under-inflated (which would indicate that someone purposely let air out of the footballs).

The NFL will apply a low standard of proof to the Deflategate investigation, which means that the NFL doesn’t necessarily need an air-tight case to conclude that the Patriots broke the rules. But anyone who wants the NFL to get to the bottom of this should want the NFL to be as careful as it possibly can to preserve every piece of evidence it possibly can. And a detailed log of the inflation levels of each football is a piece of evidence the NFL should have.


.
.
.
"Today is your day to have a better life -- it's your right."

and a league with quickly dwindling integrity and competitive fairness

so now the story is they were trying to catch the patriots cheating, but didn't bother building a paper trail of the PSIs at different times? good work, NFL!

unsurprisingly, the dumbfuck who couldn't do basic competence correctly is a former jets employee. lulz.

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

the patriots tampering with footballs in the AFC championship, throwing the entire season and possibly almost a decade of NFL results into question, the real story is that the NFL was too dumb to catch them. also, we should really focus on the media. and also on the giants faking injuries eight years ago. and also on steroid use in the '70s. and also on the effects of global warming. and also the children. because isn't that the real story here? the children.

your team cheats and you can't reconcile that with your personality.

you're in for a rough weekend.

either post like a man or get out.

you're like the new okpats mascot. you've given up trying to defend your squad, so now you'd rather just post like a brain-injured southern housewife. it's a good look for you. you rep your team about as well as anyone possibly could. keep going.

just thought i'd save you one.

but also pretty indicative of what it means to be a pats fan these days, how impossible it's become to defend them, so i'm happy to let him cook. he's saying way more about it than we ever could.

everyone else knows it's bad news.

Smoking gun. Thanks Pep-Pep.

So it's basically down to nothing. So I've moved on.

How was the Super Bowl party fellas? Tommy just won #4. That must've stung a bit.

You poor things.

the idea that roger goodell is attempting to catch his best friend and one of the men that pays his salary cheating 2 weeks before the super bowl in a blow out win is so completely ludicrous.

He lets this shit go on for 2 weeks, embarassing his best friend and then 'oh wait we dont have logs and it wasn't that bad anyway - ignore everything else you heard for two weeks.'

Cut it out. If someone knew the balls were barely under the limit then they would have spoken-up on like day 2...not 2 days after 'what logs? i didn't see any logs'

Goodell got them in the same safe with the Spygate tapes. What a sham.

Every initial report has proven to be false. Now the one report you clung to has been, surprise!, proven to be false.

Which means, obviously, it's time to concoct a conspiracy theory rather than take the journalists who ran with these rumors to task.

#tommy4rings
#billy4rings
#GOATs

-only 1 of the 12 footballs was 2 psi below, the low balls were only a tick or two below 12.5

-----------
Y'all stupid...should've tanked for Lebron/Wiggins in 2014 -Rex LongFellow

Its 2014...there are computers in glasses and people stunt after hitting the ball far. Get over it. -Cenario

It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilariou

But he does. Owners are gonna eventually see this dude is fucking up their money too.

LOLOLOLOLOL

Another weak ass, joke of a leak by the league to make it look like they actually have something...

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/12340408/new-england-patriots-employee-gave-unapproved-ball-official-lines-reports

But - OOPS! Forgot some minor details. Nobody'll notice.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/18/report-nfl-fired-employee-who-sold-deflategate-footballs/

Poor things.

>LOLOLOLOLOL
>
>Another weak ass, joke of a leak by the league to make it look
>like they actually have something...
>
>http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/12340408/new-england-patriots-employee-gave-unapproved-ball-official-lines-reports
>
>But - OOPS! Forgot some minor details. Nobody'll notice.
>
>http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/18/report-nfl-fired-employee-who-sold-deflategate-footballs/
>
>Poor things.

He's been talking about the NFL all along!

What happened guys?

Its whatever now at this point. They ain't cheat. I still hate their guts. End of story.

The whole thing seemed overblown to begin with... but at this point its all a mess.

I dislike the NFL more than i dislike the Pats so if the league makes a mockery of itself... the more the better.

Cause its looking like the NFL is more guilty (even with spygate) than the Pats are. Goodell looking more and more shady by the day with this IMO.

Your take on this, as an admitted Patriots-hater, is very level-headed and reasonable.

Since I can't go with the Pats losing, watching Goodell squirm is what I will settle with for now. Plus it is more likely Goodell will probably screw up again. I don't however, think it is likely he will ever lose his job. He's too good at making money.

>Since I can't go with the Pats losing, watching Goodell
>squirm is what I will settle with for now. Plus it is more
>likely Goodell will probably screw up again. I don't however,
>think it is likely he will ever lose his job. He's too good at
>making money.
>
>

if he didn't lose his job after the Ray Rice thing, he'll never lose it. I was certain that their investigation would clear his name and everyone would say "But we don't believe you, so you should still be fired." Then that news report came and went with little fanfare. Really the investigation shouldn't have mattered, because best case scenario he's incompetent, worst case scenario he covered up a domestic abuse case (and it's likely not the first time). Both are inexcusable, especially with his comments with Sean Payton's suspension.

The general consensus is the Pats skirt trouble again because Kraft partied with Goodell.

Side note: I better not ever hear any of "you people" stand on a high horses shitting on anyone.

It's okay, I was too. Just saying there was a lot of partying in here and now there's silence when it looks like it won't fit everyone's agenda.

lol @ pats fans in here partying over every shred of non-news. i'll be happy to jump back in here when an actual real development occurs, but until then, watching their levels of desperation escalate trying to convince people to see their illegitimate title as legit is incredibly satisfying.

But you'll say whatever you want about it anyway. This is a HUGE piece of news and it looks like much more of a league problem than a team problem at this point, but that won't matter to you. You'll come up with a conspiracy theory to explain it all no matter what the evidence says.

your team doesn't stop being a national embarrassment just because you say so. let us know when some actual news drops.

You know the saying about getting into the mud.

Pretending like this part of the story isn't big is hilarious.

>Pretending like this part of the story isn't big is
>hilarious.