http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10042361/cleveland-cavaliers-hurting-chances-lebron-james-return

In early December 2010, LeBron James returned to Cleveland for the first time since signing with the Miami Heat as a free agent the previous summer. James' new team handed his old one a 118-90 shellacking, part of the early stages of a stretch that saw the Cavaliers lose 36 of their next 37 games. Consider that return the Ghost of LeBron Past.

Tonight's meeting, the first between Cleveland and Miami this season, was supposed to be the Ghost of LeBron Future -- a chance for the Cavaliers to demonstrate to James how far they'd come since then, and potentially even the start of a pitch to bring James back to Cleveland as a free agent next summer. Instead, with the Cavaliers mired in a disappointing 4-10 start to the season that has featured more players-only meetings (1) than wins by double figures (0), it serves as a painful reminder that their rebuilding plan has gone off track. The culprit? The front office's failure to turn a bevy of high draft picks into production on the court.

Over the last three drafts, Cleveland has made a league-high six first-round picks -- two per year, including four selections in the lottery. Twice, the Cavaliers have picked fourth, and in both 2011 and 2013 they landed the No. 1 overall pick. Yet only one of these picks, point guard Kyrie Irving, ranks among Cleveland's top five players in terms of wins above replacement (WARP) this season. While Irving is off to a slow start this season, he reached the All-Star Game before his 21st birthday and is ahead of schedule in terms of his development, even for a top pick. But the Cavaliers' other first-rounders have yet to produce the kind of supporting cast that could take Cleveland back to the postseason and convince James, or another top free agent, that the Cavaliers are a superstar away from championship contention.

Based on nearly a decade's worth of drafts, we can establish a baseline for expected performance from various picks in each season of their career. For example, a typical No. 1 pick would produce 7.3 WARP during his third year, or 1.2 over the 14 games Cleveland has played thus far. Irving, with 1.4, has actually outperformed this mark. The Cavaliers' other first-round picks have not:

Player Pick Expected WARP Actual WARP
Kyrie Irving 1 1.2 1.4
Tristan Thompson 4 0.8 0.1
Dion Waiters 4 0.5 0.0
Tyler Zeller 17 0.2 -0.1
Anthony Bennett 1 0.5 -0.4
Sergey Karasev 19 0.1 -0.1
Total 3.4 0.9
Besides Irving 2.2 -0.5
We'd expect the five other first-round picks besides Irving to have produced about 2.2 WARP so far this season. Instead, four of the five have rated near replacement level with Anthony Bennett's sub-replacement production thus far during his rookie season dragging the group down. The deficit of nearly three wins essentially explains the difference between Cleveland's actual start and a .500 record. That such a large group of players is struggling suggests a systematic issue. Let's take a closer look at the other three lottery picks.

Tristan Thompson (No. 4, 2011)


Thompson
The Cavaliers may have reached for Thompson with the second of their two top-four picks in 2011. Insider's Chad Ford rated him seventh on his big board, behind three players who were still available -- Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Knight and Kawhi Leonard.

Thompson has proven a serviceable power forward, and played well during the second half of last season, when his 4.1 WARP put him ahead of the expectation for a second-year No. 4 pick (3.2). While converting from shooting with his left hand to his right hand has helped Thompson at the free throw line, where he's shooting 75.4 percent, he's having a tough time finishing around the rim and is making just 43.2 percent of his 2-point attempts. At best, Thompson has yet to demonstrate the upside that would justify drafting him ahead of Valanciunas.

Dion Waiters (No. 4, 2012)


Waiters
Another year, another surprise from Cleveland on draft night. Waiters too was rated seventh on Ford's Big Board, behind Damian Lillard, Andre Drummond and Thomas Robinson. Though a point guard would have made little sense for a team that already had Irving, and the Cavaliers don't look likely to regret passing on Robinson, they again opted against drafting a high-upside center. Already a starter in his second season, Drummond has star potential.

By contrast, Waiters' sophomore campaign has been troubling. On the court, he's shown little growth in his shot selection or consistency. Waiters too has been unable to finish around the basket, which won't likely continue. But he won't be an efficient scorer until he turns more of his long 2-point attempts (which represent 38.3 percent of his shots, per NBA.com/Stats) into 3-pointers (24.2 percent of his shots). As an undersized volume scorer, he's probably best suited in a reserve role, not starting next to Irving.

Anthony Bennett (No. 1, 2013)


Bennett
Then there's Bennett, whose terrible shooting start (he missed his first 16 shot attempts) drew boos from Cleveland fans last week and has produced a 2.3 PER to date. Continuing the theme, the Cavaliers went for Ford's fourth-rated player with the No. 1 pick. In part, they were handcuffed by this year's draft class. Aside from No. 11 pick Michael Carter-Williams, another point guard, none of this year's rookies has separated from the pack. In fact, No. 12 overall selection Steven Adams is the only other lottery pick who currently rates better than replacement level.

In time, Bennett will surely play better. He was an accurate shooter during his lone season at UNLV, suggesting the shooting slump is more a product of rust after shoulder surgery and shot selection (27 of his 42 shot attempts have come outside the paint, including 2-of-15 3-point shooting) than lack of skill. Bennett needs to work to improve his conditioning and learn how he can get his shots at the NBA level, but it's far too early to write him off.

Of course, Bennett also plays the same position as Thompson -- the first month of his career has put to rest any notions he could play on the wing -- and wasn't seen as the top pick of the draft outside the Cleveland draft room. So his upside is probably more as a complementary piece than a second star.

Starting with Bennett, all three top picks are bound to play better the rest of the season. Unless things change drastically, however, it may be too late even in the dismal Eastern Conference to produce the kind of exciting playoff run the Cavaliers would have needed to have a chance to parlay their 2014 cap space into one of the top players available. Since the current crop of talent seems unlikely to yield a second star to go with Irving, signing one in free agency was the best hope Cleveland had of jumping into contention. As a result, the Cavaliers' draft reaches could haunt them for years to come.