but this offering is *extremely* competitively priced and I (personally) expect it to do well. The six month commitment is minor since it includes Mania and the hope is that folks will stick around permanently.

A million persistent subscribers to break even seems to be a fairly lofty goal, but with time (and obviously a good product) I think it's very attainable. Considering that both of the prior Mania's each cracked a million buys, it's not unreasonable to think that, for at least the first six months they *should* be able to match those numbers.

Will that sustain to overcome the loss of revenue from the individual PPV sales? That's a different story, and is heavily dependent on how strong the product is.

But this isn't a business model with the short term in mind. I would venture it will take at least 12-18 months to honestly assess the success of the service. There will be the initial spike of the die hards, then the dip before the major spike before WrestleMania, then lulls punctuated by smaller spikes before the other PPV's. I think the number to watch will be the delta in subs after the WrestleMania glow wears off.

But what's particularly notable about the network is that mainstream media already has its eyes on it as a potential disruption to the cable channel model. Remember when it was originally rumored to be tied to the cable carriers? That's obviously not the case now and WWE is taking a big (and, to me, a potentially very high-reward) risk in going "all-in" with the internet distribution model.

What's even more notable is that WWE now has the unusual position of having revenue streams in both cable and digital distribution. HBO's getting flack for not jumping into (true) digital distribution while Netflix is working to get into cable distribution before their licensing deals get even more expensive. If the product remains good (IMO the biggest "if"), then WWE can leverage each channels to serve the other. Other than sports leagues and the major networks (like hulu), I'm struggling to think of another specialized content provider with this sort of position.

Why am I optimistic on the service though? It's been proven time and time again that if people are given cheap, easily distributed, LEGAL options for content, then they WILL pay for it. There were rumors that Mania was going to get split out from the service but the fact that they're including it (and other things fans have clamored for like Benoit footage) shows that WWE is really dedicated to making the service as consumer-friendly as they possibly can.

Now.... if only we can be so sure the product itself is good..