As the man who has watched more Jaguars games than most of Jacksonville, much less the world (and as the man who posted two weeks ago that the Rams would hang 30+ on us), here's how I see it:

It won't be against a bad team, we always lose to bad teams even when we're good. We're traditionally a "play to the level of our opponent" team.

It won't be against a truly good team, due to talent deficiency. It won't be on the road, because we need every advantage we can get.

It needs to be at home against a team with a fundamental crippling flaw on one side of the ball. We likely need it to be a defensive deficiency, as we can't score points. If they have turnoveritis too, that would help... but we probably won't cause them, we need them gift-wrapped.

We've got Chargers, Cards, Texans, Bills, Titans at home. I think we simply won't score on the Texans and Bills, which leaves the other three. If Bad Rivers shows up, that could be a sneaky bet, but I wouldn't bite. Same for Bad Carson. That Game 16 who-gives-a-fuck against the Titans is the safest bet-- Titans will be out of the playoff race, and we'll have guys fighting for a starting spot on next year's roster.

I think we win 1, maybe 2. I wouldn't bet on 3-- we won't win on the road all year.