Brett Koremenos: Frank Vogel is going to become the Game 1 scapegoat for his decision to leave out Roy Hibbert — the man he designed his top-ranked defense around — on the final possession, which resulted in LeBron James's game-winning layup. But before you lay the blame at Vogel’s feet, it’s important to remember, when it comes to basketball strategy, things aren’t always as straightforward as they seem. Unlucky shit just happens, and a huge gray area exists between player error and coaching incompetence.

It’s easy to view James’s layup on a superficial level and come to the conclusion that Hibbert’s absence cost Indiana what would have been a crucial road win. After all, James got to the hoop and the Pacers' rim protector was out of the game because of the coach, therefore Vogel screwed up, right? That actually couldn’t be further from the truth.

Time, score, and situation dictate so much of the strategy during the late moments of basketball games. With 2.2 seconds on the clock and Miami inbounding on the side, Hibbert protecting the rim was virtually useless. Nearly every time in that situation, the offense’s play will call for some type of quick catch-and-shoot. The defense will be denying the opportunity for a drive, and with the time left on the clock any pass (other than the initial one from the inbounder) is a dicey proposition.

Any good coach, which Vogel is, is going to realize that the opposing team is very likely to run several off-the-ball screening combinations before the ball is even inbounded. The best way to counter that, from a defensive perspective, is to switch everything, because switching defenses are typically only bested by teams isolating against mismatches or slipping their screens. There wasn’t enough time for Miami to do the former, and the latter can be stopped with a potent combination of execution and communication.

This is why Vogel went with a lineup of his five most “switchable” players, or at least the five who had seen game action and weren’t the 5-foot-10 D.J. Augustin. Vogel’s decision to leave out Hibbert gave his team a chance to win — the primary goal of any coach. (The choice to leave Hibbert out with a minute left in OT is a totally different story when you remember that whole time-score-situation thing.) The way to judge a coach (or anything, really) is to evaluate the process, not the result.