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Do Buckeyes have what it takes to win it all in Urban Meyer's second year?
Originally Published: May 29, 2013
By Austin Ward | ESPN Insider


From May 20-31, Insider's college football experts will examine the national championship chances of the 10 teams with the best odds to win the BCS title this season, according to Brian Fremeau's post-spring projections.

Today, Austin Ward takes a look at the path the Ohio State Buckeyes could take to the national championship game and the factors that could trip them up along the way.



COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Perfection might have arrived a bit ahead of schedule for Urban Meyer. Ohio State can't do anything to improve its win percentage in Meyer's second year in charge of the program.

But the Buckeyes can provide an encore that could be more impressive than what they pulled off a year ago while sitting out the postseason because of NCAA sanctions if for no other reason than simply getting the opportunity back to play for more than a division title and pride.

Expectations were going to be enormous for Meyer this fall regardless of how many games he won last season, particularly with a roster loaded with offensive talent and a favorable schedule. But the numbers seem to support the possibility of a perfect record in 2013 as well.

On the low side of ESPN Insider Brian Fremeau's projections, the win range for the Buckeyes sits at nine. At the end of the regular season, it could be 12. (And the computers give them a league-leading 30 percent chance to win the Big Ten.) But what really motivates the Buckeyes is the chance to tack a couple of games on top of that in December and January, and there are plenty of reasons to think they can do just that. That said, there are also a couple of issues that might prevent them from raising a crystal football once again.


Why they'll win a national championship

1. The offense will be a juggernaut
Nobody put up more points in the Big Ten last season than the Buckeyes, but Meyer is far from satisfied, and he went into spring practice harping on some issues that kept the Buckeyes from being one of the best in the country in 2012. Ohio State finished at No. 25 in the nation by averaging 2.57 points per drive, leaving plenty of room for improvement for a unit that returns almost every starter. Having a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback certainly helps, and Braxton Miller appears more at ease operating the spread in his second year and more mature now as a leader heading into his junior campaign. Expect the lights on the scoreboard to get a workout.

2. A loaded secondary will carry the defense
The strength of the defense isn't a secret, and the Buckeyes aren't afraid to lean on the area with the highest concentration of talent to get results. There's a first-team All-America at cornerback, a pair of safeties heading into their third season as a starting tandem and a host of young players on the rise ready to lend a hand in the secondary -- and the coaching staff in intent on putting them all to good use. The front seven is something of a work in progress as it replaces six starters, so the math might change a bit for the Buckeyes as they roll out more nickel and dime packages to maximize their personnel in terms of total talent on the field, this while the guys closer to the line of scrimmage develop.

3. Meyer is a proven winner in Year 2
Bowling Green improved to nine wins. Utah went undefeated. Florida won the national championship. In all, Meyer is 34-4 during his second seasons at his previous stops on the coaching trail. The Buckeyes' 2013 schedule -- it's possible they won't face a top-25 team on the road or even at all until they get to Ann Arbor -- combined with his track record for producing results plus the talent he has to work with suggest big things are in store for the Buckeyes. Meyer wasted no time re-establishing the Buckeyes as a powerhouse a year ago, but the ball might really be rolling now for a proud program looking to get back on top of the college football world 11 years after the last national crown.

Why they won't win a national championship
1. There's a chance the young defense doesn't develop as quickly as planned
The Buckeyes are going to put up points in bunches; there's not much question about that. But if they're truly title contenders and capable of perhaps stopping the SEC's reign, they'll have to be able to slow teams down with a new cast of characters.

Despite some rough patches last fall, Ohio State finished No. 26 in the country while allowing 1.52 points per drive -- but that lags well behind the top team in that category and its .83 average, which belonged to title-winning Alabama. Ohio State has supremely talented ends in Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington ready for enhanced roles as sophomores, but it needs some young linebackers to step up along with them to get to the next level.

2. The offense could become too one-dimensional
Miller is capable of changing the game with just his feet, and he has plenty of help on the ground with senior tailback Carlos Hyde, a deep stable of running backs and a dangerous option attack. In fact, according to ESPN Stats & Information, Ohio State finished tied for 11th in the country last year by picking up 57.2 percent of its yards on the ground. But by the end of last season, teams were loading up the box and daring the Buckeyes to throw, and they played some tighter, lower-scoring games down the stretch as a result. Miller has shown clear strides with his mechanics and has a much better knowledge of how to read defenses and where to go with the football, and Ohio State needs him to become more dangerous with his arm to keep defenders honest.

Bottom line
Despite plenty of talk about Ohio State's strength of schedule, it won't be able to just waltz to the Big Ten title and then breeze to the BCS National Championship Game. A couple of tall hurdles stand in the way, and both of them factor into Fremeau's projection, which pegs the Buckeyes' most likely record at 10-2. Visiting Northwestern in a night game, for one, will be a major test for this rebuilt defense. The Buckeyes also have to hit the road at the end of November for the annual rivalry showdown with Michigan, which could have major implications for both teams. That said, the overall schedule is quite favorable, with other rivals Wisconsin and Penn State both visiting Columbus.

If the offense improves even more under Meyer and the defense transitions smoothly after replacing a lot of talent up front, there might not be anything that can derail the Buckeyes now that the sanctions are off the track.

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Austin Ward | email
Reporter, BuckeyeNation
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Reporter for BuckeyeNation
Covers Ohio State sports and recruiting
Joined ESPN in 2012