http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9308776/examining-georgia-bulldogs-bcs-national-championship-chances-college-football

The offense will again be great, but rebuilt defense will be tested early
Originally Published: May 27, 2013
By David Ching | ESPN Insider
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Led by Todd Gurley and Aaron Murray, Georgia's offense should be dynamic this season.
From May 20-31, Insider's college football experts will examine the national championship chances of the 10 teams with the best odds to win the BCS title this season, according to Brian Fremeau's post-spring projections.

Today, David Ching takes a look at the path the Georgia Bulldogs could take to the national championship game and the factors that could trip them up along the way.



ATHENS, Ga. -- ESPN Insider Brian Fremeau projects that Georgia will go somewhere between 7-5 and 11-1 this season, but we'll know by the end of September which end of that spectrum is the more likely outcome for the Bulldogs.

If the Bulldogs have a fast start in the first month against one of the nation's most challenging early schedules -- at Clemson, South Carolina, North Texas and LSU -- they are sure to rank among the top national championship contenders. Coach Mark Richt's club has stumbled out of the gate several times in the past few years, however, so recent history is not on the Bulldogs' side.

But with 10 starters returning on offense, including fifth-year senior quarterback Aaron Murray and tailback Todd Gurley, the Bulldogs should remain among the country's most prolific offenses. If a young defense that must replace 12 key contributors can perform adequately in the first month, the Bulldogs might even exceed their preseason expectations.

Fremeau gives Georgia a most likely projected finish of 9-3, and just a 7 percent chance of winning the SEC, so the computers obviously see the difficult schedule and defensive rebuilding effort as obstacles too challenging for a legitimate BCS run. If the Bulldogs are 3-1 or 4-1 after the first month of the season, though, keep an eye on Georgia to challenge for its third straight SEC East title -- and perhaps even bigger prizes.

Let's take a look at the factors that could propel the Bulldogs on a national championship run, and what could derail those hopes.

Why they'll win a national championship
1. The offense will be really good ... again
By almost any measure, 2012 was one of the most impressive offensive seasons in Georgia history -- and the Bulldogs return every key player from that record-setting unit except receivers Tavarres King and Marlon Brown. If the Bulldogs find themselves in the BCS conversation, offensive coordinator Mike Bobo's bunch will likely have set the pace.


With Murray at the helm -- Georgia led the nation last year with an average of 10 yards per pass attempt and was second nationally with 40.4 percent of its passes going for first downs -- and running backs Gurley and Keith Marshall, Georgia's offense should be able to pull its weight. The Bulldogs tied for third nationally in red zone offense, scoring 76 percent of the time they penetrated an opponent's 20-yard line, and led the country with an average of 7.09 yards per play.

2. The improved defensive depth will help
The defense will have fewer proven players and obviously will miss the seven veterans who were selected in the NFL draft, including outside linebacker Jarvis Jones (led the nation last year with 14.5 sacks, 24.5 tackles for loss and seven forced fumbles) and inside linebacker Alec Ogletree (led the team with 111 tackles in just 10 games).

With all of that proven talent, however, the Bulldogs didn't rotate as many players as they probably should have on defense. That was glaringly evident in such games as the SEC championship loss to Alabama, when the Bulldogs' gassed defense fell apart in the second half. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham seems committed to rotating more players this season, and that could pay off as the season progresses -- especially as they try to replace so many talented performers.

Why they won't win a national championship
1. Sluggish starts have become a trend for this team
Georgia hasn't been a particularly fast starter in the past several years. Dating back to 2009, the Bulldogs are 2-4 against BCS-conference opponents in the first two games of the season. That's an ominous sign, since the season opener at high-scoring Clemson is followed by a visit from South Carolina, which has defeated the Bulldogs three straight times.

Georgia won its first two games last season -- that hadn't occurred since 2008, when the Bulldogs were the preseason No. 1 team. Not only have they lost to Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks three times since then, but they've lost high-profile openers away from Athens against Oklahoma State (2009) and Boise State (2011).

2. The defensive transition could take time
The talent will be there -- the Bulldogs appear set to start at least five former ESPN 150 prospects on the reconstructed defense -- and the improved depth will make a difference, but it's only natural to expect some hiccups when inexperienced players step in for so many NFL-caliber players.

Grantham's defense was not as dominant as many expected at this point a year ago, but his group actually was more efficient than Bobo's offense in some ways. Georgia allowed just 1.35 points per drive, which ranked 15th nationally. The Bulldogs scored 2.72 points per drive, which ranked 20th. In other words, that group won't be particularly easy to replace overnight.

The Bulldogs will depend heavily on new starting safeties Josh Harvey-Clemons -- ESPN's No. 1 outside linebacker prospect in 2012, who is suspended for the opener -- and freshman Tray Matthews and returning part-time starter Jordan Jenkins to replace some of Jones' pass-rushing presence. But that will be tough against three highly ranked opponents in the first four games.

Bottom line
The Clemson game, which will air before a prime-time national TV audience on ABC, might be as important in the BCS picture, but three games will determine whether Georgia returns to Atlanta to play for a conference title for the third straight year. First, there are the aforementioned games against South Carolina and LSU. Then comes the annual showdown against Florida, a series in which Georgia owns a two-game winning streak for the first time since the 1980s.

If Richt's club somehow posts a 3-0 or 2-1 record in those games, another division title will be a much more likely outcome. Of course, Missouri, Tennessee, Vanderbilt or Auburn could sneak up on the Bulldogs and hand them an unexpected loss, but the Bulldogs are 14-2 against those teams over the past five seasons. They must find a way to reverse their middling early-season results, or this will shape up as a good-but-not-great season for Georgia when the potential existed for much more.

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David Ching | email
Reporter, DawgNation
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Reporter for DawgNation
Covers Georgia Bulldogs sports and recruiting
Joined ESPN in 2011