god damn, so many good college qbs vying for that bronze trophy in january...


http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/blog/_/name/haney_travis/id/9277087/make-break-scenarios-johnny-manziel-other-2014-qb-prospects-college-football



After eight quarterbacks were taken in the first round in the 2011 and 2012 NFL drafts combined, EJ Manuel was the only first-day QB in 2013.

Maybe NFL teams were just waiting for the 2014 crop. It should more than make up for this year's class, considered weak going in and validated when onetime first-round projections Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib and Landry Jones landed in the fourth round.

Four, or maybe more, in 2014 sounds about right. Mel Kiper has broken down his top five QB prospects as things stand, with Teddy Bridgewater ranked at the No. 1 spot.

Outside of Bridgewater, who enters the season as the favorite to be the first quarterback taken and has fewer question marks (at the moment, at least) than the other passers in this class, what could go right or wrong for the top quarterbacks this season that would lead to their stock shifting?

I took a look at 10 draft-eligible quarterbacks, some of which are just behind Bridgewater on Kiper's list and others who are a bit further down, and looked at make-or-break scenarios for each during the 2013 season.



Tajh Boyd, Clemson Tigers
Make: Boyd made a huge jump as a junior, slimming down and becoming a legitimate running threat. Offensive coordinator Chad Morris told me in April that changed the whole offense, opening up myriad opportunities that previously were not available. If Boyd has another gear after another offseason of work, it'll cement to NFL teams his status as a dual-threat prospect -- in the Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick mold.

As far as the passing game, he reduced the number of chances taken last season. A resurgent season from receiver Sammy Watkins could be helpful to Boyd -- both during and after the year.

Boyd was on the right track. If he continues his current trek, he could land in the first half of the first round.

Break: Yes, Watkins is back, but Boyd had him and 2013 first-round pick DeAndre Hopkins as options last season. The year before that, he had third-round tight end Dwayne Allen. If defenses lock down on Watkins and no one else comes along, Boyd, as he did late in the 2011 season, might feel like he has to do too much and again make turnover-inducing mistakes. ACC teams might also better scheme how to make Boyd one-dimensional. He's gifted, but he isn't on Johnny Manziel's level of shiftiness.

Projection: Status quo. Boyd is a nice prospect who has improved every year he's been at Clemson -- and particularly since Morris arrived on the scene and revamped the offense. There's no reason to think he'll regress, not with it being his last college season and not with NFL teams carefully watching.



Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M Aggies

Make: Manziel, who is working this spring with instructor George Whitfield, shows improvement as a passer. He progresses in decision-making, knowing when to take off and when to remain in the pocket and take the extra time to find a receiver downfield. The freelancing took him to an unbelievable freshman season, the first-ever Heisman season. But that might not be there, at least as often, as a sophomore if defenses catch up -- and it almost certainly will not be there as a pro (not to the same degree, at least).

Additionally, NFL teams would probably turn their heads more if Manziel can lift the Aggies to a new level, an SEC or national title, than if he has another big statistical season. They know he can put up numbers; they want to see physical development or leadership advancement.

Break: He becomes stagnant in his development, leaning too often on his legs for scouts' liking. He starts taking too many chances in the passing game, trying too hard to be the passer the next level is seeking and less of the dual-threat that has made him what he is now. Manziel winds up missing coordinator and position coach Kliff Kingsbury more than we think he will, even if Kingsbury's replacement, Jake Spavital, is as close of a fit as there is going to be.

And this: What if this YOLO offseason does come back to haunt him in some way? (There's no reason to believe that would happen, though, with the Cotton Bowl as evidence.)

Projection: Make. Manziel is a unique player, someone who is extremely athletic and extremely confident. He seems to be fueled by criticism or skepticism. There have been few rises as quick as Manziel's in 2012, when he was named the starter in mid-August and named the Heisman winner in early December.



Marcus Mariota, Oregon Ducks
Make: He becomes the 2013 version of Manziel, statistically, and does it at 6-foot-4 and around 200 pounds. Remember that Chip Kelly is gone, but his offense is not. Mark Helfrich will want to make that point, so expect the throttle to stay close to the floorboard. That should benefit Mariota, who was already the most efficient full-time starting freshman in the country (32 touchdowns, six interceptions) in 2012. He averaged 7.1 yards a carry, but he didn't have to run nearly as much as Manziel. And that's more of the NFL model, since he'll have even fewer rushing opportunities at the next level.

One more thought: If the Eagles are drafting somewhere in the teens next year, how appealing would Mariota be to Kelly? (Sorry, Matt Barkley.)

Break: Mariota goes backward without Kelly running the show. There's no fluid replacement for Kenjon Barner and LaMichael James before him; it takes Thomas Tyner and others time to get acclimated, and De'Anthony Thomas simply isn't durable enough for anything other than the intermittent catch or carry. All of that forces the action to the QB position too much, and Mariota proves unready.

Projection: Make. In terms of size, Mariota is precisely what the NFL wants. If he even replicates what he did a year ago -- a 68.5 completion percentage and plus-26 in TDs-to-INTs -- NFL teams will begin to salivate to have someone like him. I know some coaches who believe he could become the name in the coming college season (as in the Heisman race) and draft lead-up. He's that big and gifted.



AJ McCarron, Alabama Crimson Tide
Make: He might not be a first-round guy, no matter what, but someone's going to fall in love with McCarron's efficiency. And why not? He completed 67.2 percent of his passes a season ago and 66.8 percent two seasons ago as a first-year starter. McCarron threw 30 touchdowns and just three interceptions in 2012, leading the country in QB rating. The NFL likes quarterbacks who throw accurately without many errors.

Nick Saban has shown he is comfortable letting McCarron throw more and more, balancing what was a run-first system prior to his promotion. McCarron isn't built like Thomas or some others, but at 6-4, 210 pounds, he is what the pro level is seeking on a lot of levels. He just needs to continue what he's been doing, and he will get a shot.

Break: Really, it is difficult to envision this. Saban and Doug Nussmeier are not going to put their offense, or McCarron, in spots where he is exposed. Perhaps that will lead to residual questions for scouts, to be answered in the Senior Bowl, workouts and so on. He has won two titles in two seasons as a starter. That will turn heads.

Projection: Status quo. And that's a good thing for McCarron. He'll again flirt with a 70 percent completion percentage and maintain that high efficiency rating. What will be interesting to watch is how receiver Amari Cooper grows as a sophomore. Is he the next Julio Jones-level talent, and what could that mean for McCarron?



David Fales, San Jose State Spartans
Make: Fales isn't at an Football Championship Subdivision school like Joe Flacco was, but he could be a similar outside-the-mainstream prospect if he repeats what he did in his first season out of junior college. Fales led the country in completion percentage (72.5) and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt, throwing 33 touchdowns to just nine interceptions. And he elevated his team, taking the Spartans from six victories the previous two seasons combined to 10 in 2012.

On a list filled with the dual-threat guys the NFL currently loves, Fales is your pure pocket-passer. There will always be a spot for guys like that.

Break: Playing where he is, it makes the numbers more important -- even if again topping a 70 percent completion percentage is a lot to ask. If he turns out to be a one-year wonder and flops against suspect competition, it will place more of a burden on how Fales works out. He could also miss coach Mike MacIntyre, who recruited Fales, spent three years with the Spartans and is now at Colorado.

Projection: Make. Fales was playing juco ball because he didn't mesh well with Chris Ault's pistol at Nevada. He's a newcomer, but he appears to have the physical tools and arm to play the position. Still, it's a big year for Fales to show he can do it for more than just one season.



Braxton Miller, Ohio State Buckeyes
Make: The second year in a new offensive system, coaches tell me, is the biggest season of growth. There's less learning and more playing. That'll apply to a couple of others on this list as well.

Coach Urban Meyer told me last month that Miller was getting more intentional about playing quarterback.

"He's a prideful guy. He works at his trade," Meyer said. "He wants to get better. This is as serious of an approach as I've seen from him."

How has that played out?

"I've seen him around here more," Meyer said, referring to OSU's football facility.

So Miller is committed, according to his coach. If young players such as newcomer Dontre Wilson and veteran players such as running back Carlos Hyde -- who Meyer said could be one of the best in the country this season - provide complements, Miller could flourish and become a desired QB commodity.

Break: The playmakers around him do not develop rapidly enough, and Miller is reduced to his role from a year ago -- doing whatever it takes, primarily with his legs, to eke out close victories. Of course, if Miller could again lead the Buckeyes to an undefeated regular season, that would bode well for his intangibles as a winner. But it would be awfully difficult if he had to again bear the burden (and risk injury) like he did in 2012. And it will be that much tougher in 2013, now that OSU is postseason-eligible.

Projection: Break, at least as a quarterback. He'll improve, but he could find himself in the same camp as Michigan's run-first Denard Robinson. It's difficult to escape that stigma, and some scouts are already wondering if Miller will be an NFL running back or receiver. No one's doubting the athleticism, just the passing ability. Meyer disagrees -- saying Miller "absolutely" can be an NFL quarterback -- but it might take Miller more than one season to get there, especially if it takes6 time to develop options around him.



Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech Hokies
Make: Hey, remember him? He was the tank of a quarterback we were all chatting about this time last summer. But then he completed 51.3 percent of his passes and had 16 interceptions to go with 18 touchdowns.

So regulating those numbers, getting the completions in excess of even 60 percent and cutting the picks in half, would be a start. NFL guys will still drool for the 6-6, 260-pound frame if he shows he can do something with it. And he had a nice spring, Hokies offensive assistant Shane Beamer told me Tuesday.

"There isn't nearly as much talk about him," Beamer said. "I think that's made him more comfortable. He looks more at ease, and he made good decisions throughout the spring."

Beamer said Thomas worked well with new coordinator Scot Loeffler, who has brought discipline to an offense that might have needed it. I was told last fall that Thomas took far too many chances -- but some of that was because the offense was so stagnant, particularly at the receiver position. It's still a question mark entering this season. The Hokies need D.J. Coles to come back from injury and be the productive player he was in 2011. If not, Thomas might have to work the slot and underneath stuff, dink and dunk, to put together drives.

Break: If those receivers don't come along, or even if they do, Thomas could again settle into a pattern of forcing throws that are not open. Thomas has had back-to-back seasons in which the numbers do not match the potential, so the status quo would be a "break." He has to demonstrate, regardless of what's around him, that he is not just a 55 percent college passer in Daunte Culpepper's body.

Projection: Make. Sort of. With Loeffler's help, Thomas should be better than he was a year ago. He looked at times as if he had just made the move from tight end, which happened years earlier. If he does boost the stats, it will not take much to get NFL teams interested. He could be a combine star and leap up draft boards, even if he isn't the first- or even second-team All-ACC QB. (If I'm picking today for those spots, I'd choose Boyd and Miami's Stephen Morris.)



Brett Hundley, UCLA Bruins
Make: This is the most intriguing guy on the list. He's lower down on the prospects list, but he's 6-3 and coordinator Noel Mazzone told me Monday that Hundley is up to 230 pounds from playing at 205 a year ago.

"He looks the part," the coach said. "He looks like you like them to look. ... I'm always in a better mood when I've got a good quarterback."

Mazzone is all kinds of fired up about how Hundley looked in the spring. It's the quarterback's second year in the offensive system.

"Last year he was a really talented kid who had a learner's permit," Mazzone said. "He had to have someone in the passenger's seat to drive the car. This year, he might be able to drive it by himself."

If the redshirt sophomore is what his coach thinks he could be, he might be in line for a leap on the field -- and in the draft arena. When and how Hundley runs is something to watch. Mazzone said Hundley is making better decisions, before and after the snap.

"He understands, conceptually, how all the pieces fit together," Mazzone said.

Break: Sometimes what coaches and fans see in the spring is fool's gold -- or it requires more time to develop. Perhaps Hundley, at this point, is better in practices and against teammates than in live action. There's also the matter of personnel. He doesn't have a big-time receiver, and Mazzone said three or four backs will work to replace the durable Johnathan Franklin.

Mazzone called Franklin "the mayor" of last year's team. What if Hundley, even in his third year, isn't ready to take over the office? He could be a year away.

Projection: Make. This is an incredibly gifted guy who is bulking up and maintaining his athleticism. The Bruins were surprise Pac-12 title-game competitors in Jim Mora's first year, so Hundley could flourish in his second year in the system. Mazzone sure seems sold, and scouts could follow as they watch him this fall.



Aaron Murray, Georgia Bulldogs
Make: Just keep it up. Murray, quietly, led the country in 2012 in yards per attempt (10.1) and was second behind McCarron in QB rating. And he put up those numbers with a so-so offensive line and in the post-A.J. Green UGA era, though he did have a strong run game to create downfield chances.

Murray is 6-1 -- not prototypical height for an NFL quarterback, but tall enough to play the position, as Drew Brees and others can attest. Brees isn't a bad comparison. Like the former Purdue quarterback, Murray is athletic enough to escape pressure but isn't a pure runner like some of the others listed.

Break: That said, Brees was a second-rounder. Are we in a new era of scouting that doesn't just look at something like height? Maybe. To some extent. It just takes one team. But if that team doesn't need a quarterback, teams might pass based solely on the height.

As far as the football this fall, what if the backfield of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall -- in the same vein as Manziel -- cannot duplicate the big first-year numbers. Malcolm Mitchell is expected to be fine following minor knee surgery, but if he is a step slow, it takes away one of Murray's more viable targets.

Projection: Status quo. He isn't going to grow, so that means -- in the NFL world -- that he's going to go only so high in the draft. But after watching Murray play and perform for three years -- it feels like 13, doesn't it? -- it's difficult not to believe he won't be one of the early-round steals. He's smart and accurate. That plays in any league.



Jeff Driskel, Florida Gators
Make: He isn't being looked at as a high-end prospect, but playing at a very visible program, would it take much for him to get there? The name I've heard associated with Driskel is Troy Aikman because of Driskel's arm and mobility. He moves well for someone with a 6-4, 237-pound frame, though he is more of an escapability prospect than a runner.

Driskel did complete 63.7 percent of his passes in his first year as the full-time starter, but, really, he was not asked to do all that much. He needs a chance to shine in his second season with coordinator Brent Pease, but much of that will depend on how his receivers play. Coach Will Muschamp was displeased throughout the spring with the continuing lack of playmakers, to the point that he is considering playing his best defensive back, Loucheiz Purifoy, on offense. If Purifoy winds up becoming a sensation, or if any of the receivers can be sufficiently productive, it could substantially elevate Driskel.

The run game was what removed the burden from Driskel a year ago, but Mike Gillislee is gone, so keep an eye on Matt Jones and freshman Kelvin Taylor -- the son of former Gators standout Fred Taylor -- to see how they affect the quarterback position. When I talked to him in March, Muschamp indicated he expected big things from Driskel, but he also was upbeat then about the receiver position, only to reverse course after watching it in the spring.

Break: Driskel could have a similar season and remain an enigma, a big, talented prospect who no one is all that sure about. With as many skill players as there are in the state of Florida, coaches I talk to cannot figure out how Urban Meyer and Muschamp have swung and missed on so many. As you have seen, many of these quarterbacks are only as good as those around them, and Driskel might have had the least to work with in 2012.

Projection: Status quo. I think he will improve, and so will those around him, but I could see Driskel staying another year. It would make him a stronger candidate, and he could avoid this QB-heavy draft and try to raise his profile as a senior.

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Travis Haney
ESPN Insider
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• Joined ESPN as Insider's national college football writer in April 2012
• Previously wrote for The Oklahoman and The Post and Courier