http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9254145/oregon-ducks-top-projected-pac-12-standings-2013-college-football


By Brian Fremeau | Football Outsiders
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Spring practices have wrapped up across the country, and there's not much more data we can pull into our projection model for the fall. At Football Outsiders, factors such as five-year program (FEI) ratings, returning starters, quarterback reliance and more have featured into the projections. We'll publish final projections based on play and drive efficiency in the Football Outsiders Almanac later this summer, but we can take a sneak peak at preliminary projections through the lens of our drive-based FEI ratings.

For this series, we first ran preliminary projections for team, offense and defensive efficiency. Then we calculated win likelihoods in each scheduled game, producing a projected record and win total range. Running the win likelihoods through 1,000 simulated seasons, we then calculated the frequency with which each team claimed a conference crown.

On Wednesday we're looking at the projections for the Pac-12, which features three contenders -- and one clear favorite -- to win the conference title in 2013.

Pac-12 North


1. Oregon Ducks
Projected finish: 11-1
Win total range: 10-2 to 12-0
Chance to win Pac 12: 49 percent
A mid-November overtime loss to Stanford was the only blemish on last season's record, and the Ducks are loaded for another run at a championship this fall. Quarterback Marcus Mariota, running back De'Anthony Thomas and almost every receiving threat from a year ago is back on an offense that averaged more than 49 points per game. Last season, the Ducks ranked among the top 10 nationally in almost every efficiency metric we measure, and they'll have little trouble putting points on the board in 2013.

The question marks for the Ducks are on defense, as the team lost several key contributors along its defensive line. The real secret to Oregon's success has been its ability to keep opponents from matching it stride-for-stride. On value drives -- possessions that begin on the offense's side of the 50-yard line and cross the opponent's 30-yard line -- Oregon has consistently outpaced the rest of college football, offensively and defensively. In five of the past six seasons, the Ducks have ranked among the top three in net points per value drive.

2. Stanford Cardinal
Projected finish: 10-2
Win total range: 9-3 to 12-0
Chance to win Pac 12: 26 percent
Stanford lived on the edge all season in 2012, playing 10 games decided by a touchdown or less and coming up on the right side of the ledger in eight of those contests. That's not usually a recipe for continued success, but the projection model loves any team that returns 15 starters to a program that has lost only five times in three years. The 2012 team was carried by its defense, which ranked third nationally in opponent-adjusted efficiency, and was responsible for generating more scoring value than the offense in six victories last year.

On offense, the Cardinal need to find consistency that eluded them throughout the 2012 campaign. Quarterback Kevin Hogan took over the starting job midseason and completed 71 percent of his passes, but Stanford's five leading receivers and its leading rusher were seniors. The good news is that Stanford has time to find new playmakers with a back-loaded schedule this fall.



3. Oregon State Beavers
Projected finish: 8-4
Win total range: 6-6 to 10-2
Chance to win Pac-12: 2 percent
Oregon State took a big step forward on both sides of the ball last season, ranking in the top 25 in opponent-adjusted offense and defense after ranking outside of the top 70 in those categories the previous season. But the Beavers haven't topped rival Oregon since 2007 and they've lost three straight to Stanford -- and those top division foes are projected to continue those streaks this season. Improvement areas for 2013 include field position (the Beavers ranked 93rd nationally in drives started inside their own 20-yard line) and turnovers (Oregon State lost turnover value in two games that exceeded its margin of defeat in those contests).

The back half of the schedule is challenging, with games against Stanford, USC, Arizona State, Washington and Oregon over the final six weeks of the season. Our projection model gives the Beavers a 63 percent chance of losing three or more in that stretch.



4. Washington Huskies
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win Pac-12: 0 percent
The season hinges on three key games in the first six weeks -- home against Boise State on Aug. 31, at Stanford on Oct. 5 and home against Oregon on Oct. 12. Our projection model gives Washington a 65 percent chance of losing all three games. Head coach Steve Sarkisian has brought the program back to respectability, but the Huskies haven't been able to break through and make much of a run in the conference race. And last season marked a significant regression on offense, the primary culprit in the Huskies' sluggish start. Washington produced an explosive drive -- those that average at least 10 yards per play -- on only 8 percent of its possessions (110th nationally), and a methodical drive -- those that run 10 or more plays -- on only 10 percent of its possessions (also 110th), the two primary ways in which offenses establish an identity. That lack of efficiency was especially costly, given that Washington ranked No. 7 nationally in starting field position.



5. California Golden Bears
Projected finish: 4-8
Win total range: 2-10 to 6-6
Chance to win Pac-12: 0 percent
Coach Sonny Dykes makes his debut with a Bears team that has a long way to go to become a conference contender. Dykes' last program, Louisiana Tech, was the nation's best team in terms of moving the ball into field position, driving 63 percent of its possessions from inside its own territory across the opponent's 30-yard line. Last season, California produced value drives on only 30 percent of its possessions. With a new system and new starters all over the field, California fans will have to be patient in terms of results. Our model gives Cal a win likelihood of less than 25 percent in seven of its nine conference games.



6. Washington State Cougars
Projected finish: 2-10
Win total range: 1-11 to 3-9
Chance to win Pac-12: 0 percent
Mike Leach didn't inherit a healthy program last season, but he didn't have anywhere close to the impact fans expected, either. Washington State's offense didn't do anything well, as it ranked 114th in raw efficiency (a measure of a team's actual drive success against expected drive success based on field position), 110th in first-down rate and 103rd in points per drive. Defense and special teams were problematic as well; as a result, Washington State ranked second to last nationally in field-position advantage. The good news is that there's nowhere to go but up, though playing one of the most difficult schedules in the league means that there will be few opportunities to actually improve in the win column.

Pac-12 South


1. USC Trojans
Projected finish: 10-3
Win total range: 8-5 to 12-1
Chance to win Pac-12: 15 percent
The Trojans fell well short of lofty expectations last season, and as a result, USC's program FEI rating fell out of the top 10 for the first time in more than a decade. This is not a program on the rise, but coach Lane Kiffin still has a roster more talented than every opponent USC will face this fall. The schedule is conducive to building momentum as well, with four games out of the gate that ought to be easy wins, a relatively weak Pac-12 South division and a cross-division slate that does not include Pac-12 North favorite Oregon. Four of the Trojans' six losses last year came by 10 points or less. To win those tight games this fall, USC needs to capitalize on scoring opportunities. After crossing the opponent's 30-yard line, USC averaged only 4.5 points per drive in 2012, which ranked 87th in the nation.



2. Arizona Wildcats
Projected finish: 8-4
Win total range: 6-6 to 10-2
Chance to win Pac-12: 4 percent
Rich Rodriguez's first season at Arizona was a success on both sides of the ball. The defense improved incrementally, field position was managed more consistently and the Wildcats ramped up their offensive efficiency to No. 9 in our opponent-adjusted offensive metric. That improvement can continue with 17 starters coming back this fall. A new quarterback will take the reins in 2013, but Rodriguez has previously groomed success at that position with young talent. The Wildcats could help themselves by improving on special teams. Arizona has ranked no better than 96th overall in special-teams efficiency over the past three seasons, and that unit cost the team two games last year that were decided by a single score.



3. Arizona State Sun Devils
Projected finish: 7-5
Win total range: 5-7 to 9-3
Chance to win Pac-12: 4 percent
Few teams in the country will be as tested as much early in the season as the Sun Devils. In a four-week span from Sept. 14 to Oct. 5, Arizona State will face Wisconsin, Stanford, USC and Notre Dame, four opponents projected in our FEI top 20. Our model gives the Sun Devils a 25 percent chance of losing all four games. After that gauntlet, however, the model likes Arizona State to go on a run, which could position it as a division contender by season's end. A total of eight starters are back on defense, headlined by 2012 Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Will Sutton. The Sun Devils gave up only 36 percent of available yards in 2012, 15th fewest nationally.



4. UCLA Bruins
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win Pac-12: 0 percent
This may be the biggest surprise in the projection model, but not when you consider the key factors that went into the formula. UCLA ranks only 57th over the past five seasons, according to FEI, and the Bruins' 2013 schedule is much more difficult than the one they tackled a year ago. Earlier this spring, we discussed UCLA as one of the programs closing the talent gap, but coach Jim Mora may need a few more years to push all of those recruits to the top of the conference title race. His debut season was a dandy, but there are more pitfalls in store this campaign. The next step is a small step back for UCLA. The model gives the Bruins a 69 percent chance of losing all four games on road trips to Nebraska, Stanford, Oregon and USC.



5. Utah Utes
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win Pac-12: 0 percent
The primary areas of concern for Utah this fall are on the offensive side of the ball. The Utes were one of the weakest nationally in terms of avoiding three-and-outs (114th), earning available yards (108th) and producing explosive drives (115th). They had one of the best kickoff return teams in the country last year, but they graduated their top returners. This is a program that still needs to walk before it can run with the big boys in the Pac-12, and all of the big boys are on the schedule this fall. From Week 3 to Week 12, Utah is projected to be the underdog in seven of eight games, and our model gives it only a 23 percent chance of going .500 in that stretch.



6. Colorado Buffaloes
Projected finish: 3-9
Win total range: 1-11 to 4-8
Chance to win Pac-12: 0 percent
Last season, the Buffaloes were the nation's worst team in terms of producing explosive drives on offense. They were also the nation's worst team in terms of stopping explosive drives on defense. That is a lethal combination, especially against a Pac-12 schedule that includes a handful of teams that can rip off big plays with consistency. If the Buffaloes do nothing else but work on preventing big plays, they may not improve their win total very significantly, but they'll keep themselves competitive deeper into games. That's pretty much the biggest impact new coach Mike MacIntyre can hope for in his first season.

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