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Spring practices have wrapped up across the country, and there's not much more data we can pull into our projection model for the fall. At Football Outsiders, factors such as five-year program ratings, returning starters, quarterback reliance and more have featured into the projections. We'll publish final projections based on play and drive efficiency in the Football Outsiders Almanac this summer, but we can take a sneak peek at preliminary projections through the lens of our drive-based FEI ratings.

For this series, we first ran preliminary projections for team, offensive and defensive efficiency. Then we calculated win likelihoods in each scheduled game, producing a projected record and win total range. Running the win likelihoods through 1,000 simulated seasons, we calculated the frequency with which each team claimed a conference crown.

On Tuesday we're looking at the projections for the ACC, which features two intriguing division races.

ACC Atlantic


1. Clemson Tigers
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win ACC: 24 percent
The Tigers' two toughest games, according to our projections, are against nonconference opponents Georgia and South Carolina that bookend the season. In conference play, Clemson draws its toughest opponents, Florida State and Georgia Tech, at home in Death Valley. Home-field advantage is the primary factor that vaults Clemson to the top of our ACC projections.

The explosive tandem of quarterback Tajh Boyd and receiver Sammy Watkins lead the way for an offense that scored 3.1 points per drive last year (eighth nationally). The bottom half of our projection window could come true thanks to a defense that struggles against big plays. In each of coach Dabo Swinney's four seasons, Clemson has given up a higher percentage of explosive drives (possessions that average at least 10 yards per play) than the year before.



2. Florida State Seminoles
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win ACC: 18 percent
The Seminoles claimed their first conference championship since 2005 last season, and Florida State appears to have elevated itself back to being the program to beat in the ACC. But with only 10 returning starters this fall, another run at a BCS bowl will likely have to wait. The Seminoles will have new faces all over a defense that ranked second nationally in forcing three-and-outs (47 percent of opponent possessions) and gave up 1.3 points per drive.

Coach Jimbo Fisher's program ranked among the top 15 in special-teams efficiency in his first two seasons but dropped out of the top 30 last year. Value generated in the kicking game and possession exchanges will help relieve the pressure on a young team.



3. NC State Wolfpack
Projected finish: 7-5
Win total range: 4-8 to 9-3
Chance to win ACC: 3 percent
New coach Dave Doeren lost only four total games in his two seasons at Northern Illinois, and he inherits a program that hasn't lost fewer than four games in one year since 2002. The Wolfpack have had moments in the last decade, but they've been terribly inconsistent and uninspiring. On offense over the past six years, NC State never ranked better than No. 52 overall in generating explosive drives, and its opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency plummeted to 78th overall last season. The Wolfpack defense generated more scoreboard value than the offense in five of their six Football Bowl Subdivision wins last year.



4. Syracuse Orange
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win ACC: 2 percent
The Orange make their debut in the ACC with a schedule that is not conducive to generating momentum, especially with a new head coach and new starting quarterback at the helm. Syracuse faces losable games against five of its first six FBS opponents (Penn State, Northwestern, Clemson, NC State and Georgia Tech), only one of which will be played in the Carrier Dome. Our projection model gives the Orange a 49 percent chance of losing at least four of those five.



5. Boston College Eagles
Projected finish: 5-7
Win total range: 3-9 to 7-5
Chance to win ACC: 0 percent
Steve Addazio is the new head coach at Boston College, inheriting a program that has won fewer games against FBS opponents in each successive season since 2005. The disastrous 2012 campaign featured only one FBS victory and only two losses decided by a touchdown or less. Boston College lost the field position battle in 10 games, costing itself more than 40 points on the year in field position value alone.

Despite all that, our projection model likes the Eagles' chances against two other ACC Atlantic weaklings, and three of their four nonconference games should be wins. That means bowl eligibility is possible, but Boston College fans will probably settle for a step in the right direction.



6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Projected finish: 5-7
Win total range: 3-9 to 7-5
Chance to win ACC: 0 percent
The Demon Deacons have 16 starters back this fall, but those players have a lot of work to do to make Wake Forest a conference contender. Wake Forest ranked last in the country last year in generating value drives, possessions that start on the team's own side of the field and reach at least the opponent's 30-yard line. The defense gave up 2.5 points per drive (81st nationally), and special teams cost Wake Forest 2.5 points per game (117th nationally). Those units need to improve significantly this fall for the Demon Deacons to sniff the upper end of their projection window. Our data gives Wake Forest only a 59 percent chance of winning three or more conference games.



7. Maryland Terrapins
Projected finish: 4-8
Win total range: 2-10 to 6-6
Chance to win ACC: 0 percent
The Terrapins went three-and-out on 50 percent of their offensive possessions last season, the second-worst rate nationally in 2012 and one of the worst we've measured by a major conference team in the last six seasons. In that span, teams that went three-and-out on more than 40 percent of drives averaged only 3.3 FBS wins, so improvement on offense needs to be extraordinary for Maryland to have much success this year.

The defense was decent last season (25th in limiting available yards), but only five starters are back on that side of the ball. Our projections peg Maryland as the underdog in nine games this fall.

ACC Coastal


1. Miami Hurricanes
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win ACC: 16 percent
The projection model finds lots to like about Miami's chances to win its first ACC Coastal title. Nineteen returning starters are tied for the most in college football this year, its program rating (No. 28) is respectable, and the rest of its division and its conference schedule aren't particularly daunting.

To truly contend, Miami's defense needs to step up. The Hurricanes allowed 20 percent of opponent drives to last at least 10 plays (118th nationally) and gave up an average of 4.6 points on those possessions (105th nationally). An asset to any contender, Miami excelled last season in managing field position, forcing opponents to start drives five yards deeper than the national average.



2. Virginia Tech Hokies
Projected finish: 8-4
Win total range: 6-6 to 10-2
Chance to win ACC: 14 percent
Quarterback Logan Thomas is back in Blacksburg, but he's one of the few offensive weapons Virginia Tech returns this fall. The leading rusher and passer last year for the Hokies, Thomas accounted for more than 72 percent of Virginia Tech's offense in 2012. That wasn't good enough. The Hokies scored only 1.7 points per drive and ranked 94th in raw efficiency. Special teams had been a hallmark of Frank Beamer's program for years, but Virginia Tech was below average according to our efficiency measures in each of the last two years.

The Hokies face Alabama in their opener, a brutal opponent for a young offense, but no Florida State and no Clemson on the schedule makes the conference slate manageable.



3. North Carolina Tar Heels
Projected finish: 8-4
Win total range: 6-6 to 10-2
Chance to win ACC: 11 percent
Our FEI projection model expects to see a four- or five-team race in the ACC Coastal Division, and North Carolina may be in control or totally out of the race early in the conference season. The Tar Heels play Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Miami in their first three conference games, two of which are on the road, and our model gives the Tar Heels only a 40 percent chance of winning two or more of those three. There's a 70 percent chance North Carolina will lose no more than one other conference game the rest of the way.

Turnovers were everything for UNC last year. The Tar Heels lost turnover value in only four games, coinciding with the four games they lost. With 15 starters back and hungry after sitting out the postseason while on probation, North Carolina can make a run for the ACC title.



4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Projected finish: 8-4
Win total range: 6-6 to 10-2
Chance to win ACC: 8 percent
Coach Paul Johnson started strong five years ago, but Georgia Tech hasn't been a factor in the conference race in each of the last three seasons. That could change with eight starters back on each side of the ball. As is to be expected from a triple-option offense, the Yellow Jackets have ranked among the top 15 nationally in producing methodical drives throughout Johnson's tenure, but success has been less consistent. In its ACC championship-winning season, Georgia Tech averaged 4.7 points per methodical drive. That number dipped below four points per methodical drive over the last three years. Tech needs to push more of those drives into the end zone and improve field position as well. Georgia Tech's opponent starting field position ranked 14th worst in college football last year.



5. Pittsburgh Panthers
Projected finish: 7-5
Win total range: 5-7 to 9-3
Chance to win ACC: 4 percent
The Panthers' first year in the ACC will be difficult, but nine starters are back on defense, which will help keep nearly every game competitive. They boasted a classic bend-but-don't-break unit last season that ranked 112th in limiting opponent methodical drives but gave up only 4.3 points per drive that crossed the Panthers' 30-yard-line (21st nationally).

The schedule features a tough home opener against Florida State in the first weekend, but our model projects that Pittsburgh has a good chance to get on an early roll in its next five or six games. The end of the schedule is toss-up territory. A strong start and Pittsburgh is a conference contender, but if it drops a few early on, bowl eligibility may be out of reach.



6. Virginia Cavaliers
Projected finish: 4-8
Win total range: 2-10 to 6-6
Chance to win ACC: 0 percent
The Cavaliers were the third-worst team in the country last year in managing field position. Opponents started 22 percent of their drives on Virginia's side of the 50-yard line, and the Cavaliers had short fields on only 5 percent of their drives. That's not a recipe for success, especially with an offense that earned a first down on only 60 percent of its drives and ranked among the nation's worst in generating big plays.

Our model projects a rough start with nonconference games against BYU and Oregon in the first two weeks. A three-game swing in October against Ball State, Maryland and Duke provides the only opportunity to string three wins together.



7. Duke Blue Devils
Projected finish: 4-8
Win total range: 2-10 to 6-6
Chance to win ACC: 0 percent
Last season, the Blue Devils played in a bowl game for the first time in 17 years, but there were red flags in their performance throughout the season that suggest a return back to the bottom of the ACC may be in store. Duke's opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency has steadily declined throughout coach David Cutcliffe's tenure, bottoming out at 113th nationally last year. Duke was fifth worst nationally in red zone defense as well. The Blue Devils lost four straight games at the end of last year's regular season, and we calculate a 39 percent chance they'll repeat the same late-season skid this year.

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