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Spring practices have wrapped up across the country, and there's not much more data we can pull into our projection model for the fall. At Football Outsiders, factors such as five-year program ratings, returning starters, quarterback reliance and more have featured into the projections. We'll publish final projections based on play and drive efficiency in the Football Outsiders Almanac later this summer, but we can take a sneak peak at preliminary projections through the lens of our drive-based FEI ratings.

For this series, we first ran preliminary projections for team, offense and defensive efficiency. Then we calculated win likelihoods in each scheduled game, producing a projected record and win total range. Running the win likelihoods through 1,000 simulated seasons, we then calculated the frequency with which each team claimed a conference crown.

Today we're looking at the projections for the Big 12, which has seen two teams emerge as big favorites to win the league title.



1. Texas Longhorns
Projected finish: 10-2
Win total range: 8-4 to 12-0
Chance to win Big 12: 39 percent
A BCS championship game appearance against Alabama at the end of the 2009 season feels like a lifetime ago, but our projection model likes the Longhorns' chances at reclaiming the conference crown. With 19 returning starters, a strong program history, and top-five talent on the roster, Texas has everything it needs on paper. The schedule is friendly as well -- an Oct. 26 game at TCU is the only true road game against another projected Big 12 contender.


The Texas offense has made strides in each of the past two seasons, but the defense will be the difference between the high and low end of our projection window. Texas allowed 19 percent of opponent drives to last at least 10 plays last year, and posted its worst value drive defensive efficiency rating of the past five seasons.



2. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Projected finish: 10-2
Win total range: 8-4 to 11-1
Chance to win Big 12: 30 percent
The Cowboys were better than their 8-5 record last year according to our efficiency data, losing twice when the field position value difference in the game was greater than their margin of defeat. If Oklahoma State can fix that issue, offensive efficiency can take them the rest of the way. Despite featuring multiple quarterbacks in the lineup last season, the Cowboys consistently moved the ball, ranking ninth nationally in first down success rate, a 5 percent improvement over their 2010 and 2011 offenses that led the way to double-digit wins. Mike Gundy's teams have posted top-10 special teams efficiency ratings in each of the past three seasons.



3. Oklahoma Sooners
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win Big 12: 16 percent
With only 11 returning starters and question marks at key positions, Oklahoma appears to be in transition this fall. Blake Bell may have an edge in the quarterback race, but he still needs to prove that he can carry the load -- Landry Jones was responsible for producing 70 percent of the team's total offense over the past three seasons.

Defensively, Oklahoma faced the nation's toughest set of opponent offenses last season according to FEI, and it is likely 2013 won't be much easier. The schedule includes a particularly tricky stretch against Notre Dame, TCU and Texas in consecutive weekends. Our model forecasts a 54 percent chance the Sooners will lose at least two of those games.



4. TCU Horned Frogs
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win Big 12: 14 percent
TCU is a popular pick to contend for the conference championship, and if so, the nine starters returning on defense will lead the way. Gary Patterson's teams have posted top-20 opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ratings in four of the past five years. The offense needs to settle on a quarterback and take advantage of the field position generated by the defense. A year ago, TCU ranked second nationally in starting field position, but ranked 95th in first down rate, wasting scoring opportunities much too frequently.

The month of October is the most critical stretch, with games at Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State and home against Texas. Winning two of three -- our model gives TCU a 35 percent chance to do so -- will keep the Horned Frogs in contention.



5. Kansas State Wildcats
Projected finish: 7-5
Win total range: 5-7 to 9-3
Chance to win Big 12: 1 percent
Bill Snyder has a history of outperforming expectations, and his Kansas State teams have defied our projection model for several years. But with the departure of Collin Klein, the return of only eight starters and the potentially unsustainable turnover success of a year ago, our data insists that a big step back is in store for the Wildcats.

Kansas State started offensive drives, on average, 11 yards closer to the end zone than its opponents -- the equivalent of 120 yards of offense over the course of a game. If that can be replicated, Kansas State will finish at the top of its projection window with ease.



6. Baylor Bears
Projected finish: 7-5
Win total range: 5-7 to 9-3
Chance to win Big 12: 0 percent
A year ago, Baylor graduated the most prolific offensive weapon in program history, Robert Griffin III, and still managed to maintain its ranking as the No. 1 opponent-adjusted offense in college football this past fall behind Nick Florence. Another new starter at quarterback will take the field in 2013, and Art Briles' offense isn't expected to miss a beat.

Here's the problem: Opposing offenses barely miss a beat against Baylor, either. The Bears ranked 120th nationally in opponent methodical drives (21 percent last at least 10 plays) and 105th nationally in opponent explosive drives (19 percent average at least 10 yards per play). The bottom 25 teams in those efficiency measures won an average of only 3.5 games last year.



7. West Virginia Mountaineers
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win Big 12: 0 percent
The Mountaineers were rolling early on last year, but a five-game losing streak in the heart of the Big 12 schedule and an underwhelming loss to Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl has West Virginia trending rapidly in the wrong direction. On top of that, coach Dana Holgorsen needs to replace a dozen starters including offensive stars Geno Smith and Tavon Austin. Efficiency and explosiveness on offense have been trademarks of Holgorsen's teams, but defense is the biggest concern. West Virginia allowed 52 percent of opponent drives to cross the Mountaineers' 30-yard line in 2012. Over the past six seasons, teams that allowed that high of a rate averaged only 2.4 FBS wins on the year.



8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win Big 12: 0 percent
Six wins is a modest goal for new coach Kliff Kingsbury, and a nonconference schedule featuring two FCS opponents helps the cause. Texas Tech returns eight starters defensively, and they'll need that experience to make up for possible growing pains on offense. A year ago, the Red Raiders gave up 2.8 points per opponent drive -- they were one of only three teams with a winning FBS record to finish among the bottom 25 in points surrendered per drive. If they repeat that performance, Texas Tech probably will fall to the bottom of its projection window.



9. Iowa State Cyclones
Projected finish: 3-9
Win total range: 2-10 to 5-7
Chance to win Big 12: 0 percent
The Cyclones posted back-to-back bowl seasons in 2011 and 2012, but with only nine starters returning this fall, a slide back to the bottom of the league is likely in order. Coach Paul Rhoads has positioned Iowa State as a dangerous giant killer, but not a threat for the conference title. Defensively, the Cyclones have yet to finish among the top 75 in the country in forcing three-and-outs or surrendering available yards, two data points that are only going to be worse with a young team. Nonconference games against Iowa and Tulsa will probably put Iowa State in a hole early on as well.



10. Kansas Jayhawks
Projected finish: 3-9
Win total range: 1-11 to 4-8
Chance to win Big 12: 0 percent
The Jayhawks are projected to have less than a 25 percent chance of victory in any single Big 12 game, but progress with this program will be measured less by wins and more by narrowing the margin of defeat. Closing the gap with the Big 12 requires doing the little things right, such as eliminating the seven-yard starting field position differential from last year and tightening up special teams deficiencies that cost Kansas more than 40 points of scoring value on the season.

The Jayhawks' defense also needs to focus on limiting big plays -- Kansas gave up an explosive drive (average of 10 yards per play or more) on 20 percent of opponent possessions last season.

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