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Spring practices have wrapped up across the country, and there's not much more data we can pull into our projection model for the fall. At Football Outsiders, factors such as five-year program ratings, returning starters, quarterback reliance and more have featured into the projections. We'll publish final projections based on play and drive efficiency in the Football Outsiders Almanac later this summer, but we can take a sneak peak at preliminary projections through the lens of our drive-based FEI ratings.

For this series, we first ran preliminary projections for team, offense and defensive efficiency. Then we calculated win likelihoods in each scheduled game, producing a projected record and win total range. Running the win likelihoods through 1,000 simulated seasons, we then calculated the frequency with which each team claimed a conference crown.

On Monday we're looking at the projections for the SEC, which features a handful of top programs with one team clearly favored to win the league title.

SEC West


1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Projected finish: 11-1
Win total range: 10-2 to 12-0
Chance to win SEC: 62 percent
There's no such thing as absolute certainty in college football, but Nick Saban has built a program in Tuscaloosa that comes close. The Crimson Tide have produced three championships in the past four seasons along with a handful of the most dominant single-game performances our team efficiency ratings have ever measured. Our model situates Alabama head and shoulders above the rest of the conference -- the Tide won at least a share of the SEC West title in 908 of the 1,000 simulated seasons.

Alabama was only truly vulnerable last season when it turned the ball over. In games versus LSU, Texas A&M and Georgia (games in which Alabama outscored its opponents 77-74), the Crimson Tide lost more than 25 points in scoreboard value on turnovers. Against its other FBS opponents, Alabama gained more than 67 points in scoreboard value on turnovers. This fall, against a schedule with few potential pitfalls and armed with elite talent across the field, Alabama is the clear front-runner to win the SEC.




2. LSU Tigers
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win SEC: 8 percent
The LSU Tigers have played a top-5 schedule in each of the past five seasons according to FEI, and this year's slate figures to be very difficult, as well. A nonconference game against TCU to start the season, cross-division games against Florida and Georgia and a road trip at Alabama in November all could derail a top team. Our model gives the Tigers a 71 percent chance of losing at least two of those four games. LSU's success has consistently been propped up by special teams (five straight top-10 ratings), defense (three straight top-10 ratings in opponent-adjusted efficiency) and field position (three straight top-10 ratings). If those performance levels are maintained, the upper end of the projection window is likely assured.



3. Texas A&M Aggies
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win SEC: 5 percent
Now that everyone in the SEC has had a chance to see what quarterback Johnny Manziel can do, repeating the same level of prolific production may be a challenge for the Aggies' offense. Losing left tackle Luke Joeckel to the NFL may be the bigger challenge to overcome. The Aggies were exceptionally efficient last season, earning 65.7 percent of available yards (measured from starting field position to end zone), the fourth-best rate measured among all teams in the past six seasons. An even bigger step back is expected on a defense that returns only four starters. Texas A&M's starting field position ranked 114th last season, and if the defense can't force opponents off the field this campaign, it will put the Aggies in a hole even more frequently.



4. Ole Miss Rebels
Projected finish: 7-5
Win total range: 5-7 to 9-3
Chance to win SEC: 1 percent
Ole Miss returns 18 starters this fall, and that experience will be critical against a schedule that takes the Rebels on the road against each of their first four Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. If Mississippi keeps its head up through that slate (53 percent chance of going 2-2 or better against Vanderbilt, Texas, Alabama and Auburn), a run of six straight home games could position Ole Miss as a dark horse division contender. More than likely, the Rebels will settle for an extra win or two over last season. Improvement in field-position management would help -- the Rebels started nearly twice as many drives from inside their own 20-yard line (28 percent) as their opponents did (15 percent).



5. Auburn Tigers
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
Our projection model factors in five seasons of program success, so Auburn is buoyed somewhat by the championship run in Gene Chizik's second season. But 2012 was so disastrous that the bottom half of the projection window seems much more likely than the top half. The Tigers ranked 119th in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency last season and 100th in opponent-adjusted defense. Only a top-25 special-teams efficiency pushed them over the top in one of their two FBS victories. There's nowhere to go but up, and with a relatively weak nonconference schedule, Auburn should have little trouble improving on its record, at least marginally.



6. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Projected finish: 5-7
Win total range: 3-9 to 7-5
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
Coach Dan Mullen hasn't had any success against the top dogs in his division, and most of the Bulldogs' games against Alabama and LSU haven't even been close. This year, Mississippi State faces five opponents ranked among our projected top 20 (Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma State, South Carolina and Texas A&M), and our model gives the Bulldogs a 48 percent chance of losing all five. To have more success, the Bulldogs need to take advantage of every opportunity they create. Opponents started 32 percent of their drives deep in their own territory last year against Mississippi State (fourth-highest rate nationally), but the Bulldogs allowed 22 percent of opponent drives to last at least 10 plays (also fourth highest in the nation).



7. Arkansas Razorbacks
Projected finish: 5-7
Win total range: 3-9 to 7-5
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
New head coach Bret Bielema was consistently producing double-digit win totals at his last job in Wisconsin, but the SEC West presents a tougher challenge. Arkansas could be a top-40 program and still struggle to be bowl eligible, with road games against Florida, Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss, plus a home schedule that includes Texas A&M and South Carolina. Our model gives Arkansas an 80 percent chance of losing five of those six games. In 2012, the Razorbacks ranked dead last nationally in offensive consistency and twice lost games in which the special-teams value they surrendered was greater than the scoring margin of the game. Fixing those fundamentals needs to be a top priority with a young team.

SEC East


1. South Carolina Gamecocks
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win SEC: 10 percent
Coach Steve Spurrier has made a habit of complaining about imbalanced conference schedules in the SEC, but his team looks to be the beneficiary of the phenomenon this fall. South Carolina won't play Alabama, LSU or Texas A&M in the regular season, the key reason our projection model vaults the Gamecocks to the top of the SEC East. It also helps that defensive superstar Jadeveon Clowney returns to a unit that ranked fifth nationally a year ago in opponent-adjusted efficiency, the best ranking South Carolina has produced under Spurrier. However, they'll need more consistency on offense -- they ranked 75th in avoiding three-and-out drives -- to be more than a division contender.



2. Georgia Bulldogs
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win SEC: 7 percent
The Bulldogs' offense may be among the best in the nation this fall, with 10 returning starters to a unit that was the most consistently explosive in the country. Georgia averaged at least 10 yards per play on 26.5 percent of its offensive possessions in 2012. Quarterback Aaron Murray ranked second nationally in pass efficiency rating, and the two-headed tandem of freshmen running backs Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall combined for more than 2,000 yards on the ground. Few returning starters on defense will make things interesting, and high-scoring shootouts make upsets more likely. The Bulldogs will need to be on their game right out of the gate, with tough games against Clemson and South Carolina in the first two weeks.



3. Florida Gators
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win SEC: 7 percent
With a completely unproductive offense last season, the Gators squeezed as much scoreboard production out of their defense and special-teams units to win. Florida produced a total margin of victory in FBS games of 121 points, 99 percent of which was credited to non-offensive value, according to our analysis. Sustaining that kind of success isn't likely, so the offense will need to produce in this campaign. The Gators ranked 109th nationally in avoiding three-and-outs last year, and the 15 programs ranked below them averaged 2.3 FBS wins a year ago. Florida could help its offense a little by improving its field position. In 2012, the Gators started 26.3 percent of offensive possessions inside their own 20-yard line, the 15th-highest rate in the country and second worst in the SEC.



4. Missouri Tigers
Projected finish: 7-5
Win total range: 4-8 to 9-3
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
The Tigers played the nation's toughest schedule last season according to FEI, but they get a bit of relief this year with one of the SEC's easiest slates. Quarterback James Franklin is back for what all Tigers fans hope will be an injury-free senior season. He missed action against two of the toughest opponents Missouri faced last year, Alabama and Texas A&M, after totaling 3,853 yards in his first year as the starter in Columbia. Missouri certainly needs his production; the Tigers averaged only 1.5 points per drive a year ago (106th nationally), and ranked 118th in points per value drive, a measure of success on scoring opportunities after the offense crosses the 30-yard line.



5. Vanderbilt Commodores
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
The Commodores played a bit over their heads last year according to our analysis, winning at least one more game than a team with Vanderbilt's efficiency measures ought to have been expected to win. Vanderbilt's success hinged often on field-position advantages. In each of their last three games, the Commodores generated at least 12 points worth of value on field position alone. That was huge for an offense that didn't move the ball well (ranked 104th in avoiding three-and-outs) and a defense that had trouble getting opponents off the field (ranked 102nd in allowing methodical drives). The upper end of Vanderbilt's projection requires wins against Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, all projected in the toss-up range in our model.



6. Tennessee Volunteers
Projected finish: 5-7
Win total range: 3-9 to 7-5
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
The Volunteers pay visits to Oregon and Florida in the first three weeks of the season, a pair of back-to-back road trips that may be unrivaled in college football this season. October features games against Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama in a four-week span. If Tennessee can survive those stretches with any kind of confidence, a strong finish to the season can push the Volunteers into a bowl game. That confidence needs to come from an experienced defense that must improve its production; Tennessee ranked 99th in generating turnovers last year, and 96th in overall defensive efficiency.



7. Kentucky Wildcats
Projected finish: 4-8
Win total range: 2-10 to 6-6
Chance to win SEC: 0 percent
The Wildcats face Western Kentucky and Miami (Ohio) in the first two weeks, and they better find success in those games because the rest of the season projects to be miserable. Our model pits Kentucky as a significant underdog against seven of its other nine FBS opponents, and gives the Wildcats a 20 percent chance of losing all nine games. A year ago, Kentucky scored only 1.4 points per drive and allowed 3.1 points per drive, the ninth-worst margin in the nation. Head coach Mark Stoops produced dominant defenses as the coordinator at Florida State, but it will take a few years to bring in the personnel to make an impact at Kentucky.

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