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Spring practices have wrapped up across the country, and there's not much more data we can pull into our projection model for the fall. At Football Outsiders, factors such as five-year program ratings, returning starters, quarterback reliance and more have featured into the projections. We'll publish final projections based on play and drive efficiency in the Football Outsiders Almanac this summer, but we can take a sneak peek at preliminary projections through the lens of our drive-based FEI ratings.

For this series, we first ran preliminary projections for team, offensive and defensive efficiency. Then we calculated win likelihoods in each scheduled game, producing a projected record and win total range. Running the win likelihoods through 1,000 simulated seasons, we calculated the frequency with which each team claimed a conference crown.

Today we're looking at the projections for the Big Ten, which includes two tightly contested divisions and a surprise winner in the Legends.

Big Ten Leaders


1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected finish: 10-2
Win total range: 9-3 to 12-0
Chance to win Big Ten: 30 percent
The Buckeyes went undefeated but unrewarded last season, and Urban Meyer's success in Year 2 has been consistent at every stop he's made in his career. Ohio State returns nine starters on offense, including Heisman-hopeful quarterback Braxton Miller, and a leap forward on that side of the ball will make the difference between a mere conference leader and a national championship contender. The Buckeyes produced a respectable 2.7 points per drive a year ago (29th nationally) but went three-and-out on more than a third of their possessions (70th). Our model favors Ohio State in each individual game, and both division challengers, Wisconsin and Penn State, have to make the trip to Columbus.



2. Wisconsin Badgers
Projected finish: 10-2
Win total range: 8-4 to 11-1
Chance to win Big Ten: 24 percent
New coach Gary Andersen inherits a healthy program in Madison, and 15 returning starters should allow for a smooth transition this fall. Joel Stave looks to be the starter at quarterback after a strong spring game, but the Badgers didn't ask much of that position a year ago; only 38.7 percent of Wisconsin's total offense was produced by a quarterback in 2012, the third-lowest percentage nationally.

The Badgers ranked third in pinning opponents deep and forcing them into 80-plus-yard fields. Andersen's old team, Utah State, ranked first in that category. Look for field position to be a driving factor in Wisconsin's success again this fall.



3. Penn State Nittany Lions
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win Big Ten: 7 percent
The Nittany Lions stumbled out of the gate a year ago but found their footing and finished with a respectable eight wins in Bill O'Brien's first year at the helm. Improving on that record will require new faces to step up on defense. Only five starters return to a unit that ranked 10th nationally in points surrendered per drive. The Nittany Lions were particularly stingy in the red zone, allowing scores on only 65.9 percent of opponent red zone possessions, the fourth-best rate in the nation.

The schedule is a challenge, with road trips to Ohio State and Wisconsin. We give Penn State a 94 percent chance of losing one or both.



4. Indiana Hoosiers
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win Big Ten: 0 percent
The Hoosiers haven't had a nonlosing season since 2007, but with 19 returning starters this year, the program has a chance to take a relatively big step forward. The defense needs to make the biggest leap in order to get to bowl eligibility. Indiana allowed 18.4 percent of opponent drives to average at least 10 yards per play last season, and the Hoosiers were able to produce above-average defensive efficiency only twice last year, against Massachusetts and Illinois.

The road slate is brutal (at Michigan State, at Michigan, at Ohio State, at Wisconsin), but our model projects a 47 percent chance of winning six of eight home games.



5. Purdue Boilermakers
Projected finish: 2-10
Win total range: 1-11 to 4-8
Chance to win Big Ten: 0 percent
Purdue didn't have much success in any phase of the game last season, prompting the exit of Danny Hope and the hire of new coach Darrell Hazell. The Boilermakers aren't projected to have much success early on, with the toughest schedule among all Big Ten teams, according to our model. Purdue's first seven Football Bowl Subdivision opponents this fall won a combined 71 games last year.

Hazell has eight returning defensive starters, and the biggest opportunity for improvement on that side of the ball comes with defending value drives. Once opponents crossed the Purdue 30-yard line in 2012, they averaged 5.6 points per possession, 112th nationally.



6. Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected finish: 3-9
Win total range: 1-11 to 5-7
Chance to win Big Ten: 0 percent
Senior quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has produced more than 7,000 yards of total offense in his career, and he projects to be one of the few bright spots for the Illini in 2013. Even though our model gives Illinois a better chance of doing well in nonconference play than it does Purdue, which is why Illinois' projected overall record is better, it has the Illini finishing behind the Boilermakers in the Big Ten standings.

Illinois couldn't get anything going last year, ranking among the 10 worst FBS teams in first-down success rate, percent available yards earned, explosive drive percentage, overall efficiency and points per drive. Field position management was abysmal as well; Illinois allowed opponents to start possessions eight yards closer to the end zone on average last year, third worst nationally.

Big Ten Legends


1. Michigan State Spartans
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win Big Ten: 20 percent
The Spartans lost five conference games last year by a total of 13 points, and our projection model suggests that a pendulum swing back in their favor may be in store this fall. A total of 15 starters return, including eight on offense, the unit that has the most room for growth this year. Michigan State earned only 39.2 percent of available yards (93rd nationally), negating a raw starting field position advantage.

The defense returns seven starters and has ranked among the top 10 in opponent-adjusted defensive FEI in each of the past two years. The biggest reason the model favors the Spartans in the Legends division is the schedule. Michigan State avoids all of the Leaders Division contenders and hosts Michigan in East Lansing, giving the Spartans a 40 percent chance of going 7-1 or 8-0 in league play.



2. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Projected finish: 9-3
Win total range: 7-5 to 11-1
Chance to win Big Ten: 14 percent
A blowout loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game and a bowl game loss to Georgia spoiled the end of last season, and the frustration of consistent good-but-not-elite performances is mounting a bit for Nebraska fans. The projection model thinks more of the same is in store this fall. Senior quarterback Taylor Martinez will blow past the career 10,000-yard mark in total offense before Big Ten conference play begins, but he and Nebraska need more consistency to be a conference champion. Thirty-three percent of their offensive possessions have ended in a three-and-out or worse in the last three seasons.

The schedule is back-loaded, with five November games that all could trip up the Huskers.



3. Northwestern Wildcats
Projected finish: 7-5
Win total range: 5-7 to 10-2
Chance to win Big Ten: 3 percent
The Wildcats have one of the larger projection win total ranges in the Big Ten according to our model, due to six games that could be decided by a single score. The home schedule includes games against Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State, and our model gives Northwestern a 52 percent chance of winning at least two.

Ball control was the key to the Wildcats' success last year, boasting an offense that gave up only 15 turnovers on the season and ranked 16th in producing drives of 10 or more plays. Fifteen starters return to a team that was above average nationally in both offensive and defensive points per possession last year.



4. Michigan Wolverines
Projected finish: 7-5
Win total range: 5-7 to 9-3
Chance to win Big Ten: 1 percent
This projection model isn't too kind to the Wolverines, a program with an elite historical tradition but one that is still seeking its identity in the Brady Hoke era. The offense was prolific in spots under quarterback Devin Gardner after he took the reins midseason, but there is youth along the offensive line that will probably keep Michigan from being a contender. If the Wolverines can help themselves on defense and special teams, it can ease the burden. But Michigan started twice as many drives from inside its own 20-yard line (24 percent) as its opponents (12 percent) and lost the field position battle eight times, including in four of its five losses.



5. Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected finish: 6-6
Win total range: 4-8 to 8-4
Chance to win Big Ten: 1 percent
The Hawkeyes are a program drifting in the wrong direction, missing out on a bowl appearance last year for the first time since 2007. The projection model likes their chances to easily win at least three nonconference games, so the path to bowl eligibility isn't a terribly high hurdle, with games against Minnesota and Purdue on the slate and the opportunity to steal one or two at home against the likes of Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Iowa was competitive on defense last year, giving up only 1.9 points per possession, but the offense needs a spark. Iowa produced an explosive drive (10-plus yards per play) on only 5 percent of its possessions last year, 119th nationally.



6. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected finish: 5-7
Win total range: 3-9 to 7-5
Chance to win Big Ten: 0 percent
The rebuilding effort for Jerry Kill continues and gets a big boost with 10 returning offensive starters, including quarterback Philip Nelson. The Gophers will need it, since Minnesota managed to produce only 1.6 points per drive (106th nationally) and went three-and-out on more than 40 percent of its possessions. The projection model gives Minnesota an outside shot at bowl eligibility, but the Golden Gophers don't have better than a 31 percent chance of winning any individual Big Ten game.

A focus on sound special teams could help -- Minnesota lost the special-teams battle nine times last year -- and could be the difference in 2013 between the high and low end of its win range.

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