SB Nation article: http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/1/1...interview-2012

Kinda interesting after they just hired Hollinger...Here's what some twitter guys commented:

Kevin Pelton@kpelton
Here's what's sad to me about Lionel Hollins' comments: He thinks statistical analysis has different goals than he does.
11 Jan 13 ReplyRetweetFavorite


Haralabos Voulgaris@haralabob
This Lionel Hollins interview is just puzzling, his reasoning for why scoring is down is nonsense. Also bemoans "stats" and "analysis" cont
11 Jan 13 ReplyRetweetFavorite


Haralabos Voulgaris@haralabob
but then mentions the Houston Rockets are scoring a lot. I wonder if he understands why they are scoring a lot.
11 Jan 13 ReplyRetweetFavorite


Brett Koremenos@BKoremenos
The Lionel Hollins interview has pretty much confirmed all the suspicions I've had about how he handles his team. Glad he's getting exposed.
11 Jan 13 ReplyRetweetFavorite


Brett Koremenos@BKoremenos
So to sum up the Hollins interview, he's not a strategist and he's not open to advanced stats. Great combination for today's NBA.

and he's gonna lose

he seems to think everybody is telling him to only use stats
its like trying to explain what channel the dvd player is supposed to be on to your grandma

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_new_black

context he said it.

http://kimkardashian.celebuzz.com/2012/07/13/white-is-the-new-black/

Actually using KK is probably not going to help

but yeah it's a pretty well known phrase

plus Black isn't capitalized

>plus Black isn't capitalized
>

be the be all, end all.

Everything he said was 100% right.

"Andrei Kirilenko, for years, was a max player in Utah, but he was not the best player on that team." - Actually Analytics says that he was, continue.

"You look at Kobe . Kobe is able to get the best possible shot." - lol

There are several terrible comments

>"Andrei Kirilenko, for years, was a max player in Utah, but
>he was not the best player on that team." - Actually Analytics
>says that he was, continue.

Kirilenko was no better than the 3rd best player on that team

>
>Kirilenko was no better than the 3rd best player on that team

He was their best player from 04-06. Then Deron and Booz took over.

What he iterated was spot on, and even though I think rudy is a gun, rudy does bring certain qualities to the table that don't show up on the stat sheet.

---> spot on

"The reality is that we have a very versatile small forward that is 6'9. There aren't many guys out there like that. He can post up, shoot from the perimeter he can attack the basket. He defends LeBron James, he defendsKevin Durant and all these guys that are tall, and strong, and quick and athletic. We don't have another player on our rsoter with that versatility, and most teams don't. That's the bottom line."


"There are a lot of expectations that go with that contract, but as I've told all the players that sign a new contract, 'you are still the same player.' Obviously, the media and fans expect more, because you get paid more, but the reality is that everybody has a role. Andrei Kirilenko, for years, was a max player in Utah, but he was not the best player on that team. The leverage was such where he became a max player, and they kept him until his contract is up. He served a very valuable role. You can't knock players for getting contracts because they have leverage. That's what negotiating is all about.


"Sometimes, circumstances dictate the kinds of shots you get. When we have marc and zach on the inside, it's hard to find a spot to put them when we want to post rudy more. Rudy's adjusted to that from day one. You hear people say that Rudy and Zach can't play together and they don't fit. They do fit! They need each other. Zach needs Rudy'sversatility, and Rudy needs Zach to post up and get rebounds.


"We get hung up on statistics a little too much, and I think that's a bad trait all over the league that's taken place. And the media has done it because it's easy to go to the stats to make a point or to build up a player or tear down a player. Just the analyzing, I see it every time listening to talk show radio. You've got guys spouting off stat after stat after stat. The bottom line is going out and contributing to your team for winning."-----------------
------



Of course statisticians and writers are going to criticize because (1)he is black, and(2) stats allow people who don't know anything about basketball to degrade and praise players who they hate and love.

I don't understand why they can't re-structure rudy's contract. He wants to stay in Memphis, so what's the problem?

>Of course statisticians and writers are going to criticize
>because (1)he is black

>
>I don't understand why they can't re-structure rudy's
>contract. He wants to stay in Memphis, so what's the problem?
>
>
>
>
>

I guarantee you if this was feasible and brought up, 1 second later rudy and his agent would say pls trade me

The new CBA allows for contract restructuring, so If rudy want's to stay , then he should be willing to restructure his contract

I think it's been clear since his time at Connecticut that titles really aren't Rudy's priority. Getting paid a lot of money is Rudy's priority.

So you wouldn't be willing to re-structure your contract to keep your team under the cap, so that they can keep you, and or add other players?

You know how many players in sports have done that?

Several, the ones who care about the game, and not just money.

Lebron and Bosh basically restructured their contract possibilities to play for Miami!

1) >Lebron and Bosh basically restructured their contract possibilities to play for Miami!

you are basically saying that they took less money to play in miami. Yeah, players do that all the time. They didn't restructure their pre-existing contracts.

2) Why should Gay take less money so that the owner can avoid tax penalties? If the owner wants to keep the team together, he can.

but they restructured their potential to make large sums of money so that the team could sign the both of them....you do understand that right?

Do you realize football players have their contracts restructured all the time to help the teams' financial situations? ....you do realize that right?

Also, said team is the team that GAVE him is lucrative contract, when he clearly didn't deserve it....


Since rudy is crying about being shipped out, and that he does not want to see the grzz disbanded, then why wouldn't be up for some kind of restructuring?

Help out or shut the fuck up about the trade...that's my take on him

>but they restructured their potential to make large sums of money so that the team could sign the both of them....you do understand that right?

Players do that all the time before signing a deal...not after.



>Do you realize football players have their contracts restructured all the time to help the teams' financial situations? ....you do realize that right?

Nfl contracts ain't guaranteed. you don't restructure ya ass can get cut. That's why nfl players have holdouts. You don't see nba dudes holding out right?

>Also, said team is the team that GAVE him is lucrative contract, when he clearly didn't deserve it....

so what...The owner can keep him..he don't want to pay the tax. Why should Gay take a profit cut and not the owner?? foh with this bs.
It's the same scenario with harden staying in OKC

We're talking about Rudy and not William gay, right?

I don't care what the CBA says there's no precedent for it in basketball. Part of the reason deals get restructured in the nfl is cause the contracts aren't guaranteed.
So yes if I might get my ass cut--I'm gonna restructure.
Memphis can cut amnesty or do whatever to gay, they still gotta pay.

On top of that to make his deal worth it dude would have to take like a 10 million per year pay cut lmfaoooo. I guarantee gay and his agent don't wanna be there that much.

He doesn't want to be in memphis that bad. Earlier this week he was like its whatever if they trade me they trade me.



>but they restructured their potential to make large sums of
>money so that the team could sign the both of them....you do
>understand that right?
>
>Do you realize football players have their contracts
>restructured all the time to help the teams' financial
>situations? ....you do realize that right?
>
>Also, said team is the team that GAVE him is lucrative
>contract, when he clearly didn't deserve it....
>
>
>Since rudy is crying about being shipped out, and that he does
>not want to see the grzz disbanded, then why wouldn't be up
>for some kind of restructuring?
>
>Help out or shut the fuck up about the trade...that's my take
>on him

and this is why the deals and contractual foundation in basketball are shit and will always be shit.

Also, the tax line is 70 million. The grizz are currently at 74 million , which leaves them at 4-5 million over the tax line. Rudy taking a 6 million dollar cut per season would help them out big time.


cool he wants to keep his contract?...then he should shut the fuck up about the trade scenarios.

if I were a player, and I wanted to stay in a certain city or with a certain team, and I knew I was getting GROSSLY overpaid, I would be willing to modify my contract.....


yeah, who needs redistribution!...fuck it!.I'm not letting go any of my candy!

and this is why the deals and contractual foundation in basketball are shit and will always be shit.

Also, the tax line is 70 million. The grizz are currently at 74 million , which leaves them at 4-5 million over the tax line. Rudy taking a 6 million dollar cut per season would help them out big time.


cool he wants to keep his contract?...then he should shut the fuck up about the trade scenarios.

if I were a player, and I wanted to stay in a certain city or with a certain team, and I knew I was getting GROSSLY overpaid, I would be willing to modify my contract.....


yeah, who needs redistribution!...fuck it!.I'm not letting go any of my candy!

foh at giving back 6 million to save the owner some money.

I really can't remember the last time an NBA player re-structured a deal that was already in place.

I remember Barkley deferring money so teams could afford to sign other people that offseason, I recall a dude or two opting out then coming back but I don't really remember a dude making close-to-max just deciding he would give back or even move that money back to help out an owner.

that means nothing. Just because it has never been done before does not mean that it can't be done..

Contract restructuring is allowed in the CBA. period. So if rudy is so dead on staying in memphis, and he is bitching about being traded, see if the grizz would be willing to restructure his contract.


other than that, he needs to shut the fuck up, because he is GROSSLY overpaid.

lebron situation is unique (google how much he actually made last yr)
what's just as confusing is this "save the team money" "billionaire owner" nonsense ppl have been throwing around lately
it's as if they think we're talking about the NFL too
margins in the nba for these non major market teams are razor thin some years
i don't fault teams at all for manipulating rosters to avoid the luxury tax. hard to argue any teams attempt to maintain flexibility imo.
compare the flexibility that okc has to say.....miami

Like the mavs and spurs aren't heavily into metrics

>Like the mavs and spurs aren't heavily into metrics
Consigning just blatantly wrong info. I don't usually get into these wars but
Aside from your teams named OKC Boston
I believe Portland stroll does. Charlotte started with cho.

and dumb.

Smh


____________

Dallas Heatvricks BACK 2 BACK CHAMPS!!

Of course all he has to worry about is the guys on the floor and how they play, and pretend that salaries don't matter.

Advanced stats go hand in hand with value and cap numbers. The NBA is a business beholden to the cap, and a player's perceived production from his loyal coach is irrelevant when it can be properly analyzed statistically and put up against what it is costing you in lost opportunity.

Hollinger knows.

The Griz are stuck. They are are going to find it very difficult to seriously contend for a chip as currently constructed, and have zero financial room for improvement without moving someone. And the main reason, the only real reason, is Rudy Gay. You CANNOT pay someone $17 mil to contribute what he does and expect to win big as a small market. The advanced stats tell the story that we see when we watch. He defends pretty well, he shoots a high volume inefficiently, and he steals high percentage shots away from the team's low post advantage. At $8 million he'd be fine (Caron Butler type), but at $17 million he's poison.

Hollins has his guys playing hard, as all good coaches do. But he is clinging to the very thing that is holding his team back.

>Of course all he has to worry about is the guys on the floor
>and how they play, and pretend that salaries don't matter.
>
>Advanced stats go hand in hand with value and cap numbers. The
>NBA is a business beholden to the cap, and a player's
>perceived production from his loyal coach is irrelevant when
>it can be properly analyzed statistically and put up against
>what it is costing you in lost opportunity.
>
>Hollinger knows.
>
>The Griz are stuck. They are are going to find it very
>difficult to seriously contend for a chip as currently
>constructed, and have zero financial room for improvement
>without moving someone. And the main reason, the only real
>reason, is Rudy Gay. You CANNOT pay someone $17 mil to
>contribute what he does and expect to win big as a small
>market. The advanced stats tell the story that we see when we
>watch. He defends pretty well, he shoots a high volume
>inefficiently, and he steals high percentage shots away from
>the team's low post advantage. At $8 million he'd be fine
>(Caron Butler type), but at $17 million he's poison.
>
>Hollins has his guys playing hard, as all good coaches do. But
>he is clinging to the very thing that is holding his team
>back.

Nothing else really even needs to be said. Caron Butler is a damn good example against Rudy Gay making 17 mil. Hell you could throw Jamal Crawford in there too. Butler, Crawford, Barnes, and Bledsoe COMBINED still don't make as much as Gay. The Clips have their shit all the way together.

While it's a longshot, I think that his team as currently constructed *could* win a championship.

Zach Randolph is as dominant as there is an offensive player in the league. Other than, you know, Lebron. But he doesn't count. Put Durant up there. Whatever. Zach is as good as it gets. He's unguardable.

Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol are players who can back him up, and if the other players click.... They *could* win.

Clearly, a longshot. But it's not like they don't have the players to make it happen. If you make the argument that it's impossible, then I'll make the argument that only a a handful of teams/franchises have won titles in the past several decades. That type of thinking is relevant, but prohibitive. Without thinking that the status quo is vulnerable, you have no reason to exist unless you have Jordan or Hakeem or LeBron.

Just that it is much more of a long shot with Rudy Gay on the payroll. His presence on the team is counterproductive to their current situation.

He is a salary cap black hole. He is essentially sucking up $10 million in cap space over what his production is worth. That's the difference between contender and not for this team.

They start Tony Allen, a defensive player at SG. I love this, but due to his offensive limitations it necessitates a productive and EFFICIENT wing scorer next to him. Rudy Gay is not a good compliment when he his shooting 41% from the field, and 31% from 3. For example, they'd be better off with a Jared Dudley type (and using the savings on a stellar bench scorer, etc), who also defends well, shoots a much higher percentage and takes a few less shots, giving Gasol and Randolph the more high percentage shots. Its all about the team construct. Their advantage is in the paint, and Rudy takes some of that off the table by taking 17 shots a game, much of them long jumpers at a shit rate.

Rudy's $17-$19 million off the books could instantly vault this team into a very serious contender for the next 3 years.

The gm has to bring in talent...
A good coach makes the talent efficient...

Coaches are paid to get the most out of players and Gay should not make less than Luol Deng.

The problem with Memphis was similar to the Bulls when we had Kirk and BG...

They didn't have enough scoring from the 1,2 so the 3 had to compensate and play outside his realm.

If Mayo was more consistent or they had a consistent scorer from the 1,2 positions, then Hollins would be able to utilize Gay differently but that wasn't the case nor is it currently.



Hell look at Luol Deng. He wasn't earning his money 5-6 years ago and plenty people gave him shit for it, because he was the #1 scoring option or #2 if you consider BG coming off the bench...

What happened, Rose and Boozer happened.

Now Deng could focus on defense and fine tuning his game where he can get to spots and be that 2nd or 3rd option and his game has improved overall. He adapted and coaching was a big part, but giving him 11 million in 2006 would seem dumb as hell for what you were getting.


Gay is good and worth 11-12 million easily all around.


Hell people argued if James Harden was worth a max contract or would a GM be dumb to pay him, when all it took was a different environment for you to see he could get his.

any sooner than i'd argue the earth's sphericalness with a schizophrenic street-wino preacher.

it's like, what's the fucking point? it's crazy how every time the subject comes up, some ppl act like it's some sort of esoteric martian calculus. it's basic fucking math. i've just accepted that some ppl don't dig on math like that, and once you get past +-x÷ they automatically get defensive and intolerant.

which is fine. let them frolic in their ppg/rpg/apg ignorance. who cares?

Spurs, celtics (where Morey came from),okc all use it pretty heavily.

D-Rob to get a shot a Timmy, that's about it

>D-Rob to get a shot a Timmy, that's about it
I don't get it cause the I formation is clearly out there. It's like me sayi ng 1+0=3

sloansportsconference
http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=249
http://www.kdnuggets.com/2011/03/mit-sloan-sports-analytics-conference.html

specifically, defensive rating. There's such a glaring flaw in the definition, it's a bit puzzling to me people even want to use it. So if anybody bases their argument on something silly like that, I'm going to assume they're the ones who don't understand statistics and their potential limitations at all.

imo, you can't really build effective advanced statistics by just crunching the regular stats numbers (like point scored) and re-formulating them a bunch of different ways. I would be much more interested in different approaches collecting data that is not accounted for in regular stats; things like counting the times a player provides effective help defense or forces a bad shot or 'near-blocks' a shot (making the shooter miss, obv).

>specifically, defensive rating. There's such a glaring flaw
>in the definition, it's a bit puzzling to me people even want
>to use it. So if anybody bases their argument on something
>silly like that, I'm going to assume they're the ones who
>don't understand statistics and their potential limitations at
>all.


i don't lend much credence to the individual off/def rating stat. don't really like the methodology behind it.

but that's the thing : i did the knowledge. i didn't just dismiss it outright on some EVOLUTION AND GLOBAL WARMING DON'T EXIST AND THE HOLOCAUST NEVER HAPPENED dumb shit, and I didn't use one instance that I don't necessarily agree with to impugn the entire enterprise.


>imo, you can't really build effective advanced statistics by
>just crunching the regular stats numbers (like point scored)
>and re-formulating them a bunch of different ways. I would be
>much more interested in different approaches collecting data
>that is not accounted for in regular stats; things like
>counting the times a player provides effective help defense or
>forces a bad shot or 'near-blocks' a shot (making the shooter
>miss, obv).

yeah, the teams' in-house data def tracks all that and more. the synergy sports stuff, for instance, is used by every team in the league now. way more sophisticated that what we the general public are privy to.

Not just here but in the real NBA.

I would just agree with whatever he says. He also watches every single nba game.

If everyone would just recognize that, it would be so much easier to have actual basketball discussion. If someone brings up a stat, it doesn't mean they are a 'stat geek...and if someone brings up something unique from in-game, it doesn't mean they are archaic and can't do math.

The fact is you want as much information as possible...and it's simply impossible for humans/scouts to give you that in the amount of objective detail that numbers can. On the other hand, humans/scouts can account for nuances that numbers and stats still cannot because too many variables exist to utilize only statistics.

Utilizing both statistics and humans gives you the greatest amount of coverage and information. If everyone just stopped labeling each other as an extreme and actually tried to incorporate some of things they may not be comfortable with, we could have some great discussion instead of the same ole stat vs traditionalist dichotomy.

already knew, like that shane battier was a guy who helped them win in a variety of ways.

literally no one advocates SOLELY using analytics. not a single person. so that's a strawman.

tons of people argue the converse tho, from ex-players turned tv analysts to old-media-dinosaur types like wilbon to know-nothing cats in this forum and others online, and it's silly to me that so many folx are so adamant and deadset on outright dismissing the advanced metrics as being totally w/o merit or value.

shit is borderline retarded. pretty much every team in the league is using the formulas now, in some way shape or form. every front office has @ least 1 or 2 quants on the payroll. lmao @ cats thinking it's just morey and hollinger.

and yes, the lion's share of the naysaying DOES stem, at least in part, from a fear of / inability to do anything beyond the most basic math. i'm absolutely convinced of that part being true. diminishing math skills is a prevalent American issue in general tho and a whole other conversation.




>If everyone would just recognize that, it would be so much
>easier to have actual basketball discussion. If someone brings
>up a stat, it doesn't mean they are a 'stat geek...and if
>someone brings up something unique from in-game, it doesn't
>mean they are archaic and can't do math.
>
>The fact is you want as much information as possible...and
>it's simply impossible for humans/scouts to give you that in
>the amount of objective detail that numbers can. On the other
>hand, humans/scouts can account for nuances that numbers and
>stats still cannot because too many variables exist to utilize
>only statistics.
>
>Utilizing both statistics and humans gives you the greatest
>amount of coverage and information. If everyone just stopped
>labeling each other as an extreme and actually tried to
>incorporate some of things they may not be comfortable with,
>we could have some great discussion instead of the same ole
>stat vs traditionalist dichotomy.

I never said those who advocate for stats say it's the end all be all...but rather, and I've seen it on these boards, is that when this debate pops up and someone brings up stats or traditional methods...they are instantly labeled an extreme, with no middle ground. It's a really silly 'debate' technique and only serves to have individuals dig their heels in further.

I agree with you that traditionalists tend to be dismissive, but some of the stats cats often do act very arrogant and pretentious which only serves to feed into the stereotypical 'stat geek' image, and limit discussion.

And lastly, the math issue is definitely a legit one. I've had discussions on here about the simplest metric, pace adjusted ppg, and simply because it involves some math, some cats were dismissing it...even though it's basically the simplest shit lol.

It's usually when someone hears an advanced statistic dropped and a non-believer in statistics appears to dismiss it.

It happens in OKP all the time with Guinness.

Guinness: his true shooting % is such and such.
Unnamed OKP: LOL @ thinking these advanced statistics tell the story.
Guinness: god you're dumb.

It's pretty impossible for an advanced stat nut to become dismissive unless someone dismisses them first. How can they otherwise? There's no gloating about basic math and science. It is what it is. It's like people gloating about believing in evolution. It just won't happen unless creationists enter screaming.

alladat.

>I agree with you that traditionalists tend to be dismissive,
>but some of the stats cats often do act very arrogant and
>pretentious which only serves to feed into the stereotypical
>'stat geek' image, and limit discussion.
>

well, that's just because they're smarter... duh


>And lastly, the math issue is definitely a legit one. I've had
>discussions on here about the simplest metric, pace adjusted
>ppg, and simply because it involves some math, some cats were
>dismissing it...even though it's basically the simplest shit
>lol.

yeah i've seen this. shit is embarrassing lol. how hard is it to grasp that different teams play at different speeds? sheesh.

> It's a really silly 'debate' technique
>and only serves to have individuals dig their heels in
>further.

advanced stats didn't arrive here as a means of understanding or discussion
it arrived as a way for ppl to argue positions that few agreed with (kobe vs. hollinger)
what's most interesting to me is how AS transitioned from being something universally clowned here not even 2 yrs ago to now having a large following


>
>I agree with you that traditionalists tend to be dismissive,
>but some of the stats cats often do act very arrogant and
>pretentious which only serves to feed into the stereotypical
>'stat geek' image, and limit discussion.

ppl are being pretentious even in this thread
and it's kind of hilarious because i know dudes like dula, guinness, frank longo, and you etc probably have no idea what hadoop is
and probably couldn't implement a mapreduce algorithm if your lives depended on it (not being pretentious just being realistic....guinness and longo are writers i believe(!))
data is every where folks and some ppl actually use it for meaningful things. professionally even (lol)
i don't think anyone is even questioning the math so it's weird that it's constantly brought up as the disconnect
you'd think these guys were sitting at their laptops with calculators instead of regurgitating precompiled numbers off of a website for whatever petty argument their having at the moment
shits ridiculous actually

you're wrong

about what exactly....
how AS begun being discussed here?
bout ppl using pretentiousness as an arguing technique on a messageboard?
or about ppl here who classify themselves as 'stat nerds' probably having no idea what was going on in data 5 yrs ago much less right now?
or do you want to try mapreduce? how about a simple quicksort? show ur work http://jsfiddle.net/
lol

you're pulling pretentiousness rank atm...and in general they're not pretentious or wrong...only time i can really recall is d'antoni stans

and i'm not being pretentious at all
just highlighting how ridiculous some of the pretentious comments/suggestions from the "stat heads" are in these threads when:
a)they're talking about middle school math
b)none of them are actually doing math anyway, aren't coming up with formulas or new perspectives, and the use of AS here is pretty zero sum (the whole reason why there's opposition) instead of being nuanced or insightful

>and i'm not being pretentious at all
not at all--not even a tiny but? FOH.

>just highlighting how ridiculous some of the pretentious
>comments/suggestions from the "stat heads" are in these
>threads when:
>a)they're talking about middle school math
>b)none of them are actually doing math anyway, aren't coming
>up with formulas or new perspectives, and the use of AS here
>is pretty zero sum (the whole reason why there's opposition)
>instead of being nuanced or insightful

Advanced Stats as it stands right now IS middle school or high school math. Thats fact. But just because it is doesnt mean it isnt valid, doesnt make sense, or is weak.

Ill be the first to say that I'm not a math guy. The highest math I took was calculus but that doesnt mean my arithmetic and algebra isnt as sharp, fast, and accurate as anyone elses on this board. Its apples to fuckin oranges.

You deal with math on a daily basis, great. That doesnt mean you understand advanced stats better than all of us who dont.

If you think there's a way you can apply your math to NBA advanced Stats analysis then I would strongly suggest you take your HADOOP, figure out how to apply it to advanced stats, and get yourself a nice paying, cushy NBA or other sports job--cause thats the next frontier. Theres jobs out there eight now calling your name. Morey had a feww posted up a couple weeks ago.


I was a guy who grew up watching basketball and up until a few years ago was one of those guys you mentioned who dismissed them. But imo any smart person who really takes the opportunity to look deeper into it and realize that isnt an end all be all will figure out where it makes sense. There are still areas of it I remain cautiously skeptical about, but like I said, there's a huge frontier for people who really know statistics. If I had known this growing up--I would've done something completely different.

Lets get into the hypocrisy of your statement on lines being drawn in the sand.
It's funny that you choose to post so dense on some of this shit because your line is drawn in the sand with Guinness. I've seen you in posts quoting advanced stats so I know you know they arent invalid. But because one of your big beefs on this board is with the guy who is known as the boards biggest AS guy, you choose to slam it publicly to feed the trolls who really arent even understanding the basic math to go at Guinness. When I think about it--it is pretty crafty and hilarious. I imagine you just posting shit like--"Chill Morey used it to get the 7th seed" and sitting back laughing when you get dudes to cosign it when you know damn well Morey isnt the only dude in the league using AS...not even close.


I love how you even had to go get all stah on that salary negotiation shit. LMAO.

I think Frank said it best the AS guys cant really be pretentious first. As Ive seen it theyll throw stats out there that traditionalist old guard types will quickly make fun of as geek shit--when like you said it isnt really geek shit. Its basic math. Just a new way at looking at the game.

No AS guys argue to exclusively look at the game with a 100% AS lens. But there are plenty of old guard guys on this board and in the NBA who are still like we dont need that AS stuff at all.

the same people who regurgitate stats from box scores are the first to dismiss "advanced" stats...that come from box scores. most of the stuff we talk about on here is really, really basic: pace adjusted numbers, TS%, offensive rating. i feel like it takes more effort NOT to understand those things than to have relative fluency in them.

to SPM's credit he actually fucks with these things, even if he's somehow on the other side of the "debate" here (which is mostly because his anti-morey/harden/asik/lin agenda). other skeptics are just being willfully obtuse, but they're a vocal-but-dwindling population.

personally, i don't enjoy the binary "player X is better than player Y" part of metrics like PER/WS as much as using numbers to figure out what players/teams are doing right and doing wrong. it's also nice to be able to weed out rhetorical bullshit about "heart" and "leadership" and "clutchness" that are popular with the punditry. after delving into this stuff, it's astounding to realize how much wrongness is ceaselessly recited as facts from fans and analysts.

if you're not talking about TS% in 2013, you're doing it wrong. but i do think we're in the midst of a pretty tidal change: the amount of criticism that "hero ball" now gets is entirely different from a couple years ago.

Those are still very valid concepts that definitely impact performance on a team level. It's very hard to quantify and you have to be involved on a daily, personal basis to see how those aspects affect everyone else.

as having "heart" or being "leaders" or "clutch" and then you look at stats that focus on "clutch" situations, those players aren't actually particularly clutch.

but folks is mad about that because there are too many agendas (kobe/bron was the classic) that get all sorts of fucked up by those stats.


-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

But heart and leadership...how do you tangibly quantify the impact that has on a team or specific other players? And it's not just some bs made up value...those two things play a great deal in team unity, mentality, attitude, young player improvement, etc.

anyway, it seems like, if we had good enough statistics, leadership/heart would be the residuals or intangibles left out of the model for teams. So if a team keeps outdoing what statistics predict they should do, that could be attributed to leadership or heart.

but in general, in other sports, those ideas are largely non-existent. Leadership/heart don't seem to impact baseball success. It's possible that baseball is a uniquely non-leadership-oriented sport (it is far more individualized a set of performances), but it also is possible that leadership and heart are actually quantifiable in terms of how well others play when you're on the court or not. It's a complicated statistic to measure that, and basic stats like +/- are really, really poor attempts to do that, but it'd be doable over a whole season for at least high minutes players because there are so many possessions in an 82 game season.

>But heart and leadership...how do you tangibly quantify the
>impact that has on a team or specific other players? And it's
>not just some bs made up value...those two things play a great
>deal in team unity, mentality, attitude, young player
>improvement, etc.


-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

I know there have been systems in place for calculating match ratings for a long time. Id imagine things continue to get more complex?

but there's a good chance the advanced statistics will lead-frog other sports because they're doing some really cool stuff with tracking the exact location of each player at any given time. That'll be the type of micro-data that needs HADOOP and distributed computing :)

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It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

>ppl are being pretentious even in this thread
>and it's kind of hilarious because i know dudes like dula,
>guinness, frank longo, and you etc probably have no idea what
>hadoop is
>and probably couldn't implement a mapreduce algorithm if your
>lives depended on it

i've got the memory of an elephant, and i'm fairly certain the two of us discussed my educational / professional background at one point. right after you came out of school, I think. I never delete inboxes so it's in there somewhere if I bothered to look. whatever tho, it was many many moons ago. but yes, spm, i'm intimately familiar w distributed computing lol. quicksorts too.


and almost anyone who knows me would tell you that i'm probably the least pretentious person on earth. i'm not pretending not to care about ppl being so nonchalantly and closemindedly dismissive of analytics. i. honestly. don't. care. i've just never been the type nigga who suffers fools, luddites and antiprogressives gladly. as far as i'm concerned, they're just in the way.


oan : swype just autocorrected "analytics" to "ass fanatics" and i'm kind of mad that i'm still juvenile enough to have found that way funnier than it actually was.

are about 20 years ahead of where advanced stats are right now. maybe the stats being used by teams and not released publicly, but that shit can't be more irrelevant to what anyone is talking about in public.

-----------
It's only funny till someone gets mad. Then it's hilarious.

My nigga Dula Dibiasi is up in this peace.


was going on, bro!

loser ass nigga. what's good, my dude?

You still mad that the bulls are shite, I see?

Let it go, MAYO is chilling!

bulls might still be able to get him ...he might opt during the summer

Outside of a Huizengan* push back everytime an allegedly traditional team wins a ring or an allegedly progressive team fumbles in the playoffs, front offices will make fewer and fewer stupid decisions. Correspondingly, the crafty transactions that smug fans and writers will point to as evidence of a growing divide between smart teams and dumb teams will become fewer and fewer. That wont stop people from shouting about it, though. This reaches a high point when an obviously terrible trade suddenly doesn't look particularly bad. We'll call it "The Krivsky/Kearns Moment".

Eventually, it'll start to appear that the biggest remaining arena for teams is acquisition of amateur players, something which absolutely requires scouting. We'll all be bored and confused about what side we're supposed to be on, until that edge also becomes blurry because of the one stable truth in all of this, that people between the ages of eighteen and twenty-two are fundamentally unreliable. So, you know, luck kind of matters a lot.

Fashionable teams will win for luck that looks like fashionable reasons. Unfashionable teams will win for luck that looks like unfashionable reasons. I kind of suspect that the true smart teams will be the ones that figure out an effective way to keep their talent healthier than everybody else's, but at the moment that kind of seems like luck too.

*Yep. I've been reading "Autumn of the Middle Ages". Deal with it.

Health and maturity are both immeasurable at the moment and certainly unquantifiable by any mathematical certainty. Although part of me does wonder if things like bones and muscles will soon become part of the statistical field, in hopes of identifying trends on a genetic level in terms of injury-prone probability.

Short secondbaseman don't last long and crater fast. Unless one doesn't. Tall pitchers take longer to develop consistent mechanics. But they could be worth it. Unless they're not. Short righthanders don't make good starters. Unless they're Pedro Martinez or Tim Lincecum. Then they do.

edit: access to private medical data seems both necessary for a good stab at this project and the sort of thing that no good players' union would ever permit front office types to share with each other freely.

to get into advanced analytics if you're not getting paid for it

what a waste of time and potential

advanced analytics do work for sports that have finite outcomes and are open to little subjectivity (baseball, football) in terms of measurement. The art, for those sports, comes in the interpretation and coloring of the story that you think the numbers tell.

In basketball, there is so much situational ambiguity that I am skeptical you can build even a basic data set that tells a remotely concrete story about a player, coach or team's effectiveness or execution. It's too free-flowing, too interchangeable, too random. When continuation fouls, for example, entered the game, everything went out the window.

That said, it's not all down to mystical ability. Hollins' Kobe clutch argument, for example, has been explained away as a simple numbers probability; he makes the shot because he's given the most chances. And he's given the most chances because he makes shots, or we believe he does at a higher rate than an alternative shooter.

I wouldn't take that many words to say it because I'm lazy

but basically

keep numbers outta sports!

way more useful things to spend your time on

Malcolm said 'by any means necessary'

>to get into advanced analytics if you're not getting paid for
>it
>
>what a waste of time and potential
>
>


Its not like im sitting here with a spreadsheet of my own open, entering and crunching numbers. I just look at data that already exists because youre right Im not getting paid. Sometimes when im driving I think about areas of advanced stats that are still uncharted, but it really doesnt go that far beyond my brain bubble.

as if going to basketballreference to find someone's TS% is more grueling than finding out his FG% on yahoo.

i watch every play of every game of every season and record usage rates into an abacus

all of the sense of authority

none of the number crunching

now i see why america is losing at Math

That's some silly ass thinking

(meaning where the numbers came from, what the website does with them, and why it's bullshit if you disagree)

that would easily put us #1 in math

i don't get why everyone saying the numbers are stupid or people are using them wrong just don't DO THAT when it comes up.

if someone is using a number wrong, call them on it.

if someone is using an "advanced" stat that is derived from lousy data or poor critical thinking, call them on it.

if it doesn't apply, say why.

just because it isn't a huge time investment doesn't mean it's not relevant....that's what the internet is fooooor.

ease up nerds

suffer, douchenozzle

you just told me i'm trying to plea-cop

i watch every play of every game of every season and record usage rates into an abacus

this dude just remixed the 50000 POSTS? GO OUTSIDE AND GET SOME PUSSY AND FRESH AIR last-gasp rebuttal

nicely done

Is when cats use it to make some sort of outrageous claim
It's one thing to say for example James Harden is better than you think he is and here's why (backed up by xyz)

It's another thing to say the only SG better than Harden is Manu Ginobili and use those stats.

I don't have a problem with using some of them. However, when cats are trying to say bench players are better than certified all-stars in the league just by using those stats it gets ridiculous. And then when you're stunned by that claim, certain heads try to call you an idiot

you could at least make an effort to quote me correctly when you're trying to take shots.

i said harden was the best OFFENSIVE SG last year, which he was. and he is again this season, so what exactly are you crying about now?

the coach has to coach the personnel. that's why Hollins has been fantastic for Memphis -- he made the team wear his personality in the best way possible.

but it's not necessarily his job to worry about #s. he really *does* need to be more worried about things like whether or not Zach Randolph made it into the hotel at a reasonable hour the night prior. yeah, okay -- maybe he should check with an assistant coach from time to time about whether or not they have some useful advice, but overall it's just not his realm.

but that's also why you have a GM who ISN'T the coach, because that GM is going to be the guy who's going to argue over salary and decide which trades are right, which trades are wrong. and he can't be caught up having personal connections to guys because they hustle the hardest in practice and set the tone for the bench unit etc.

it's just a non-issue. actually the nerds are the dumbest for proclaiming themselves victors when their #s are still more theory than fact (and will probably remain that way for the rest of our adult lives).

yes, what you described are the duties of the coach. but the notion that he shouldn't act as a conduit between numbers guys and the players is insane. that's his JOB

he doesn't need the #s.

but yeah, sure -- he needs a #s guy that can give him useful information.

but let's see a team try to hire a strict #s guy as the head coach, do you think that would work? cuz I don't.

What does "numbers are more theory than fact" mean? Sounds really, really wrong.

and OF COURSE he needs the numbers. WTF. what kind of madman would suggest that a coach operate in a vacuum where he doesn't know his players' statistics? jesus fucking christ.

The level of importance varies but there is some level of importance for just about every coach in the NBA, MLB and NHL. Even the staunchest "Oh I don't look at that crap" guys in the press look at it privately, most would acknowledge it is a tool for them and some would place a strong emphasis on it.

I love how now that the analytics era has taken monstrous
Ls, people are moving the goalposts

the truth: analytics-fascism lost.

advantage nerdz

>SB Nation article:
>http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/1/1...interview-2012
>
>Kinda interesting after they just hired Hollinger...

funny how we almost here nothing from Hollinger since he's taken that job...