And there's not as much of an advantage as people think to going second. You have a narrative of what's already happened to fit some self fulfilling prophecy.

If the second team that deferred doesn't score at all it would be.....well they may not have scored if they took the ball first either.

Or maybe don't give up a touchdown if you took the ball first and only got a field goal.

This is all confirmation bias.

I like Shanahan's thought process of going third and it being sudden death at that point.

It's never an advantage to be down in a game AT ALL. I don't care if you have 4 downs or not. You can say that if you have Patrick Mahomes but otherwise you want the ball first and you want to dictate what happens first. You might score and then force a turnover on the second team.

There's too many scenarios to call it that clear of an advantage.