>He can go from Top 10-20ish pick to Top 3ish.

Miles Bridges. Robert Williams. Both lost stock.

Bruce Brown though he'd go from mid-first to top ten. He lost stock.

Justin Jackson thought he'd go from fringe first rounder to lottery. He lost stock.

Shit, Grayson Allen would've been a late first rounder after sophomore year. Came back, lost stock. Came back again, lost stock again.

If you're a projected first rounder, you're like the blackjack player who just doubled up his winnings. There will always be the temptation to say, "Shit, I just doubled my winnings-- if I stay longer, I could QUADRUPLE my winnings!" And you're not wrong... but it's a hell of a gamble. Stay too long, and you're forgetting that the house always wins.

"But next year's team will be so good and--" dude, he falls on his hip the wrong way ONCE, and he's lost ten slots from his stock this year. If his 3-point percentage stays where it is, or only *marginally* improves? He's losing slots. Defense doesn't improve the way people want? Slots. Shit, what happens if for whatever reason his shots aren't falling and he starts losing minutes? SLOTS SLOTS SLOTS SLOTS SLOTS SLOTS EVERYBOOOODYYYYYY

The *safest bet* dudes lose slots when they return. I'm not doubting Knox's ability to improve and prove himself a better than mere mid-first-round player-- but a looooooot of players have said that and failed. He needs to know those odds. And if he chooses to stay at the table with his current chip count... hope the cards stay in his favor.