>The younger kids have a higher bust factor because you simply
>haven't had as much opportunity to evaluate them against
>higher competition. Also some people get to caught up and
>"potential" and "floors and ceilings" and ignore basic stuff
>like "can this kid play? what is his work ethic like? how
>mature is he? how mentally tough is he? how is he going to act
>with 7-8 figures in his bank account living on his own?"
>
>You can get a lot better feel for those things at 20-21 than
>you can at 17-18. Those first few years as an "adult" are a
>huge growth period mentally for most young people.

Good point. Though I guess as long as I'm down this road I may as well add that these points work even better as arguments for a real minor league. The difference between 17/18 year olds and 20/21 year olds with those maturity issues isn't just a 0/1 matter of are they mature enough - but they can be taught those things. I bet a lot of owners/GMs would like the certainty of teaching those things within the organization.

Or not. Part of a big driver for me is just remembering how fucking stupid I was when I was 18 but also knowing that stupid didn't just dissolve away on a set schedule.