"The younger kids have a higher bust factor because you simply haven't had as much opportunity to evaluate them against higher competition. Also some people get to caught up and "potential" and "floors and ceilings" and ignore basic stuff like "can this kid play? what is his work ethic like? how mature is he? how mentally tough is he? how is he going to act with 7-8 figures in his bank account living on his own?" You can get a lot better feel for those things at 20-21 than you can at 17-18."

I disagree with basically all of these comments from ThaTruth's above comment, as there's no proof that younger draft picks bust at a higher rate than older draft picks. He could cite anecdotal examples, and I could cite them back. There's no point. There's no obvious trend.