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Forum nameOkay Sports
Topic subjectBrian Dozier is the best 2B in the AL right now / Rosario returns
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=8&topic_id=2310810&mesg_id=2336575
2336575, Brian Dozier is the best 2B in the AL right now / Rosario returns
Posted by Walleye, Wed Jun-11-14 09:04 AM
He's actually tied with Chase Utley for best in MLB by WAR (2.5) right now, and the offensive gap between Dozier and the rest of the league's 2B is not small. There was a fair amount of "what do we have in Brian Dozier?" talk this off-season, and I stood somewhat firmly in the wait-and-see camp. A breakout season is nice, but that power outbreak for a guy who never showed anything like that in the minors seemed like a possible illusion. Now, a 365 day sample of his work gives us a .249/.338/.458. The power is real, the low BA is real and likely due to a flyball-first approach that makes his non-homers pretty easy to record as outs. But what he's really added this year is a great eye at the plate that, as has been discussed above, seems to be spreading in Twins Territory.

This seems like an apt time to revisit the "what do we have in Brian Dozier?" question because Eddie Rosario just made his triumphant return from a 50 game "apparently, really loves smoking weed" suspension. After a refresher in Ft. Myers, he's been in New Britain for four games and is hitting .438/.500/.658. Defense is a question. Apparently delight in illegal substance is a question - though less of one once he's on the 40-man and isn't subject to testing for recreational drugs. But we can't let a 50 game absence make us forget that he can fucking hit and hit and hit and hit.

Add Jorge Polanco to the 2B mix and we're suddenly absurdly deep in one middle infield position. He's being tried at shortstop, but most scouts doubt he'll have the arm for the position - particularly when he profiles as a pretty good defender at second and his bat is making such huge strides. Though perhaps being blocked by Dozier and Rosario will make that SS look a bit longer. Dozier is 27, traditional peak age and will still be subject to serf wages through the 2015 season.

There's actually a good analogy for how to proceed with this: Denard Span. With the imminent departure of Torii Hunter after the 2007 season, the Twins cast a wide net for the next legacy centerfielder. They traded for Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez. And they drafted Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere. As it turned out, the best answer (for the time period) was already in the system, as Span turned into the high-OBA, good defensive option the team needed. Prior to the 2010 season, when still making serf money he signed a very team friendly six year extension with the Twins that provided solid insurance against an arbitration bonanza, capping at 6.5mm in what would be his first FA year *and* providing a pretty cheap 9mm team option.

That's a contract the Twins would have been happy to hold onto and play. Span was a solid player and a good fit in Minnesota, but with Hicks' semi-breakout (oops?) and Revere (who I honestly believe they didn't intend to shop last winter) available they couldn't resist the potential ace swap of Alex Meyer. Soooooo, when you look at the above names (Gomez, Revere, Hicks, Pridie, Span) things are a bit murky. The best of the group is presently destroying the universe in Milwaukee. But Span's team-friendly deal created a nice flexibility that permits us to talk, briefly, in big-picture generalities where the front office has turned that group into:

-a potential #1 starter
-a potential high-K mid-rotation starter
-a starting shortstop
-a young, toolsy CFer that still has a shot at being a good MLB starter

Signing Dozier to something similar gives the Twins a similar flexibility to keep his cheap production on both sides of the ball around or to trade him to a contender for more parts that'll be part of the next great Twins team and then to see what they have in Polanco and Rosario.

The tough part is figuring out who amounts to what. Though I'm pleased with the general outcomes above, it still could have turned out better. There's a strong possibility the Twins backed the wrong guy in Hicks. And they traded away JJ Hardy, making that Gomez trade pretty ugly considering they could have just kept him and then pursued Hardy some other way since the Brewers were clearly kind of done with him.

The additional difficulty is that, unlike the 2008-2010 Twins, Terry Ryan has to accurately gauge the Twins' window of competitiveness. It seems clear that Dozier will provide the most value through 2015, and likely 2016. But then he'll be 30 and both Polanco and Rosario could have graduated to and/or from the upper minors. Who is the most valuable in 2017 and on? Can the Twins be competitive before 2017?