you gotta at least put something concrete out there (and the fact that's the murky goal you wanna hang your hat on says it all) to give a prediction any teeth.

Everyone knew the Chiefs were returning six Pro Bowlers, had a nasty D, suffered through all kinds of injuries/drama last season, got a real QB & a head coach (their two biggest flaws) in the offseason while playing a perceived easy schedule.

Them being competitive wasn't really some fortune teller shit.

Vegas had their over/under line at 7, meanwhile if they finished 7-9 you could still claim 'competitive'.

But congrats on the moderately right example rather than the litany of completely wrong ones.