Five breakthrough defenses
Oregon, Oklahoma State among teams poised for big defensive seasons
Updated: July 30, 2013, 11:19 AM ET
By Brad Edwards | ESPN Insider
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Nick Toon
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Oregon led all Football Bowl Subdivision teams in forced turnovers and interceptions last season.
On Monday, I highlighted five potential breakout offenses for 2013, using advanced metrics to identify units that were much better last year than conventional stats indicated and have the key components to be even better this season.

The same concepts hold true for evaluating the potential breakout defenses. Because of the different offensive tempos in modern college football, per-game statistics can't accurately assess the quality of a unit. Numbers become skewed by hurry-up teams -- positively toward offenses and negatively toward defenses.

Regardless of pace, the objective of defensive football is still to keep the opposing offense from scoring. How well that goal is achieved just has to be defined by rates instead of raw box-score numbers. When we look at stats this way, surprises usually emerge, such as the following five defenses that were undervalued last season and should begin to earn more respect in 2013.



Oregon Ducks
The Ducks' defense is similar to Alabama's offense; both teams have built their reputations on one side of the ball, which causes the other side of the ball to be taken lightly by casual fans.

Don't be fooled by Oregon's ranking of 44th in yards allowed per game last season. The Ducks had one of the more effective defenses in college football, and that's shown through the Expected Points Added metric, which evaluates how much each phase of the game contributes to winning. The EPA numbers are adjusted for the strength of the opposing unit, which means that defenses are judged, in part, by the quality of the offenses they face.

Last season, Oregon ranked sixth in the nation in adjusted defensive EPA, which takes into account the numerous times that the Ducks' defense either scored a TD or set up the Oregon offense in scoring position with a turnover. The Ducks led the Football Bowl Subdivision in both forced turnovers (40) and interceptions (26), four of which were returned for a touchdown. Because of that, the defense that ranked 56th in passing yards allowed per game was rated second nationally in adjusted pass defense EPA.

So what does this mean for 2013? Normally, a defense that lost as many key players as Oregon did would not be expected to repeat its performance the next season, but this program is better prepared than most. Because an up-tempo offense has a way of wearing down its own defense in addition to the opposition's, the Ducks rotate more defensive players than, perhaps, any team in college football, often going three deep at most positions. This means that Oregon's new starters always have playing experience.

While statistics show that it's incredibly difficult to force a large number of turnovers with regularity, it's worth pointing out that the Ducks ranked second in the nation in 2010, so the success in 2012 seems much less random.

The Oregon program reached new heights under Chip Kelly, and even though he's gone, the momentum should continue. The program's higher profile has attracted a higher level of recruits, which should be evident in the talent upgrade the Ducks have shown on defense. With players who are bigger and faster than Oregon has ever had, the unit should continue to improve in conventional areas, such as yards allowed and red zone stops. If it can do that and still force about 30 turnovers in 2013, the Ducks should finally earn national recognition as the difference-making defense they've been for the past three seasons.




Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Oklahoma State defensive profile is very similar to Oregon's, albeit one rung lower when it comes to effectiveness. The team allows a lot of yardage (80th in yards per game) but grades out much better in EPA (16th in adjusted defensive EPA). The big gap occurs with pass defense (110th in yards allowed per game and 23rd in adjusted pass defense EPA).

One big difference is that the Cowboys don't have an important stat that could be difficult to duplicate this season, such as a high ranking in turnovers forced. In fact, Oklahoma State has plenty of upside when it comes to generating negative plays, having ranked 57th in turnovers and 66th in sacks a year ago. Increases in those areas in 2013 -- a realistic possibility -- would further improve an already good EPA.

As mentioned in my June article on EPA, the Cowboys' defenders could use a bit of help from their teammates on other units when it comes to the scoreboard. OSU gave up seven touchdowns last season when the defense wasn't on the field, and even though that didn't hurt its defensive EPA, it did hurt the perception of the defense when the team allowed additional points. All told, Oklahoma State gave up 105 points off turnovers in 2012, which is a number that figures to improve simply from entering this season with more experience at quarterback.

Another way of saying it: The Cowboys were even in turnover margin last year, and just getting back into plus territory this year would seem likely to improve the team in both conventional and advanced defensive statistics. If seven returning starters can also cut down on their yards allowed, the defense should be noticeably better in 2013.



Fresno State Bulldogs
When I began this exercise, I wasn't expecting to see a non-AQ team on the list, especially a team that garnered little to no attention from poll voters last season. But when a team doesn't play in one of the big conferences and still ranked higher in adjusted defensive EPA (20th) than it did in yards allowed per game (22nd), that makes an impression.

Knowing that the Bulldogs must have had the raw numbers of a top-10 defense before the opponent adjustment, I looked for the reason why and quickly found it: They excelled in the same areas as Oregon, making momentum-swinging plays by sacking the quarterback and forcing turnovers. The Fresno defense set up its offense so well that it not only led the nation in points off turnovers last season (217) but did so by a wide margin (Oregon ranked second with 188).

If not for a seemingly uninspired effort in the bowl game, the Bulldogs would have had even better numbers. Having a bad taste in their mouths from that performance over the offseason is one reason why I like the Bulldogs' chances to show more defensive improvement in 2013.

Here are three more: (1) Although safety Phillip Thomas is a big loss, the Bulldogs bring back most of their defensive playmakers from a year ago; (2) coach Tim DeRuyter has a track record of success as a defensive coach, and his defenses have ranked in the upper third of the FBS for the past five years; and (3) The schedule gets much easier from a defensive standpoint, as Fresno State trades Oregon and Tulsa in 2012 for Rutgers and Idaho in 2013 on the nonconference slate.

Fresno State has a chance to be a top-10 defense by conventional standards, and if it can continue to set up its offense by making big plays, this unit also could be a fixture in advanced metrics.



USC Trojans
There's no question that last season was disappointing for the Trojans in just about every way possible, but their on-field performance -- at least, by the numbers -- wasn't as bad as six losses would suggest.

On defense, they were the definition of average by conventional standards, ranking 60th in yards allowed per game (out of 120 teams). But the Trojans did that against a schedule that included several good offensive teams, which contributed to them having an adjusted defensive EPA ranking of 36th.

Coordinator Monte Kiffin achieved guru status for his ability to scheme against NFL offenses, but the variety of spread attacks in college seemed to give him trouble during his three seasons at USC. He was by no means the only coordinator to be embarrassed by Oregon, but allowing 730 yards and 62 points to the Ducks -- the best adjusted offensive EPA performance in an FBS game last season -- didn't do him or his defense's stats any favors.

The fact that USC still had a top-40 defensive EPA with that game included says that the Trojans did some things right on that side of the ball. And their performance down the stretch was greatly improved, even though it wasn't dominant outside of the Arizona State game.

With seven returning starters and new coordinator Clancy Pendergast making a move to a 3-4 alignment, there is reason for optimism. Leonard Williams, who was a star as a true freshman last season, has a chance to shine as a defensive end in this scheme.

USC still has plenty of talent beyond Williams, and with Pendergast having coached successful defenses at Cal in 2010 and 2011, there's no reason to believe that he will seem out of place in the Pac-12 the way his predecessor sometimes did. This convergence of players and coach has a chance to pay immediate dividends for the Trojans.



Baylor Bears
This may seem like a bit of a stretch, but bear with me. (No pun intended.)

Let's establish right away that Baylor was not a good defense in 2012 (119th in yards allowed per game) and hasn't been for some time. But having a hurry-up offense of their own and playing against so many potent attacks in the Big 12, the Bears have never been as bad on defense as conventional stats might suggest. Their adjusted defensive EPA ranking of 76th from a year ago still doesn't seem to say much, but I think a light came on at the end of last season.

As a team, Baylor caught fire down the stretch and won three games against ranked teams. The offense was firing on all cylinders during that run, but the defense also put together its three best single-game adjusted defensive EPA performances of the season in those victories (over UCLA, Kansas State and Oklahoma State).

The big difference for Baylor was getting sacks and forcing turnovers at a high rate. The Bears' offense doesn't typically require much assistance, but when the defense started making plays, the whole team transformed into what looked like a legitimate top-20 squad.

I could be wrong, but I think Baylor gained confidence and learned something about its defense from those games. Being aggressive isn't all that risky when your basic defensive efforts are regularly failing, and failure happens quite frequently for defenses in the Big 12.

With the core of the defense returning in 2013, look for the Bears to take chances in applying more pressure at the line of scrimmage. If they do so with moderate success, expect a fairly significant improvement in the defensive numbers. It might not be a breakthrough by conventional standards, but if Baylor can become an average defense this season, that could be enough to make the team a conference title contender and create the opportunity for an even more important type of breakthrough.

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Brad Edwards
ESPN Insider
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• Analyzes college football and the BCS as part of ESPN's Stats & Information Group
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