because 300 replies is enough...(even if 150 are mine)


- Carlos Hyde..not guilty. Case closed. Back to business.

- Polo Manukainiu, a redshirt freshman defensive lineman at Texas A&M, and Gaius Vaenuku, an incoming freshman defensive tackle at Utah, were killed in a rollover accident yesterday (from what ppl are saying, they didnt have seat belts on and were ejected from the car) . sad shit. RIP.

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9518282/alabama-five-teams-poised-offensive-breakthroughs-college-football

Five breakthrough offenses

All good college football programs have an identity.

Several teams, such as Oregon, Texas A&M and half of the Big 12 have established their identities on the offensive side of the ball. Nobody questions whether those units will score a lot of points. That much is taken for granted.

There are other teams which play good offense, but aren't necessarily known for it. Because they don't break the 40-point barrier on a regular basis, these teams' strengths typically show up in efficiency statistics more than in conventional ones.

The following five squads fit that mold in 2012. They were much better offensively than most people realized, and because of returning experience, there are good reasons to believe they'll have breakthrough seasons on offense in 2013.



Alabama Crimson Tide
Nobody questions the Crimson Tide's recent track record, but many college football fans have yet to recognize that Alabama excels on more than one side of the ball. On Twitter, and even in the hallways at ESPN, I still read and hear suggestions that Alabama is a pedestrian offensive team and "can't score."

That could be attributed to the Tide having such a strong defensive identity. I'm sure some of that opinion is residue from the 9-6 loss to LSU in 2011, but it might also be a result of so many people being conditioned to look at the wrong statistics.


Last season, the Tide ranked a mere 31st in the FBS in total offense (yards per game), which is a great example of why per-game stats are inferior to per-play and per-drive stats when comparing offenses that don't run a fast tempo against those that do. Consider that the 2012 Bama offense also ranked fifth in the FBS in yards per play and third in points per drive.

Those latter numbers better reflect the Tide's EPA (expected points added) ranking, which measures what a team is able to do relative to the position (yard line, down and distance) it finds itself in. Alabama ranked fourth in the FBS in adjusted offensive EPA last season (the adjustment is for the quality of opposing defenses), a ranking partly influenced by the Tide being 16th in passing EPA (as opposed to 75th in passing yards per game).

And now, for the first time in the Nick Saban era, Bama has a QB entering his third season as a starter. AJ McCarron was arguably the nation's most efficient passer a year ago, throwing 30 touchdowns and only three interceptions -- stats compiled with an injury-depleted receiving corps and a top target, Amari Cooper, who was a true freshman. Those injured receivers are all back, along with Cooper. If recruiting analysts are correct, Alabama might also have a big-play threat at the tight end/H-back position in O.J. Howard.

Longtime Bama observers believe this is the most explosive group of receivers the program has ever had, and many would suggest that there's even more talent at running back as well. T.J. Yeldon rushed for more than 1,100 yards as a freshman backup last season and figures to be the primary ball carrier this year. The only question is whether the operative depth chart will have one player behind him or as many as four.

On paper, the only real concern for the 2013 Alabama offense -- and it's a big one -- is replacing three NFL draft picks on the offensive line (two first-rounders and an Outland Trophy winner). But with the two returning starters also being of NFL caliber, and the team having averaged more than 5 yards per rush in each of the last four seasons, it feels like Bama is more likely to reload up front than to have to rebuild.

Because it doesn't play an up-tempo style, you probably won't see Alabama alongside teams like Oregon, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Baylor or Clemson in the conventional per-game offensive stats. But if the Tide can meet their usual standards in the running game and add more explosive plays in the passing game, as expected, then it's very possible they could be in the argument for being college football's best offense by the end of the season.



Texas Longhorns
Although they showed great offensive improvement from 2011, last season's Longhorns still didn't rank in the top half of their conference in any conventional category (sixth in rushing, sixth in passing, sixth in total offense, seventh in scoring). And on the national scale, Texas ranked 40th in the FBS in yards per game.

Adjusted offensive EPA rated the Horns as the nation's No. 11 offense in 2012, even though that barely got them into the upper half of Big 12 teams. The reason: EPA suggests that the Texas running game was undervalued last year, ranking it 13th in the FBS despite being 53rd in rushing yards per game. Aside from the Ole Miss and Baylor games, the Longhorns weren't spectacular when it came to running the ball, but they were good at avoiding negative plays, which EPA recognizes. Texas was tied for eighth nationally with only three rushing fumbles lost, and it had the 18th-fewest rushes for minus yardage.

Anyone who puts stock in recruiting rankings would consider the Horns' backfield to be loaded. Johnathan Gray and Malcolm Brown were two of the most sought after running backs in the 2011 and 2012 classes, yet Joe Bergeron is the guy scoring most of the team's touchdowns. In all, Texas returns its top four rushers from last season.

Even more important is that the Longhorns return all of their starting offensive linemen and have some depth in that unit, as well. QB David Ash is also back after showing great improvement in his sophomore season, and he's now the most veteran player in the Big 12 at his position.

With so much returning experience, Texas already seemed like a good bet to make further offensive strides this season, and that seems even more likely -- especially in conventional stat categories -- now that it's decided to shift to an up-tempo attack. There's no reason to believe the Longhorns shouldn't be one of the top offenses in the Big 12 this season, and if so, that would mean production they haven't shown since the Colt McCoy days.



Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish were, by all appearances, an average offensive team last year, ranking 54th in the nation in yards per game. Digging a little deeper, however, we see that Notre Dame faced four top-10 defenses plus three others that ranked in the top third of the FBS (according to adjusted defensive EPA), which makes those offensive struggles much more understandable.

That degree of difficulty posed by the opposition is a big reason why Notre Dame ranked 18th in adjusted offensive EPA in 2012. An underrated passing attack (71st in the FBS in yards per game but 24th in passing EPA) is another reason. But as many people are aware, the Irish lost their top receiving target, Tyler Eifert, to the NFL, and starting QB Everett Golson is no longer on the roster.

Therefore, any chance of Notre Dame continuing to improve on offense this season probably rests on the arm of quarterback Tommy Rees. Fortunately for the Irish, Total QBR -- ESPN's metric that measures all aspects of quarterback play -- says he's the equal of Golson. Rees had an opponent-adjusted rating of 69 (on a 100-point scale) for last season, which was slightly better than Golson's 67 (35th among FBS starters). And over a three-year college career that has lacked continuity, Rees has still managed to produce better-than-average numbers along the way.

Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly arrived in South Bend with a reputation as a quarterback developer, and even though we've seen little of that in the last three seasons, this will be his first chance to work with a veteran QB as his starter. If you still believe in Kelly as an offensive guru, it's hard not to like the potential of this Notre Dame unit.

One area of likely improvement is big-play production. Rees is a better passer than Golson, and that should give Notre Dame more opportunities through the air. And without an elite tight end as a security blanket this season, expect the Irish to get the ball into the hands of their wideouts more often. Although TJ Jones has proved himself reliable, DaVaris Daniels may be the target who proves to be a difference-maker, with more opportunities to make plays.

Without the threat of Golson behind center, the running game will be different, but the explosive George Atkinson III figures to get more touches after the departure of leading rushers Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood. If either of two highly rated recruits can make significant contributions, the running game might also produce more big plays, even if it proves to be less consistent overall.

The bottom line is that Notre Dame has recruited well enough in recent years that losing a few impact players should not signal a step backward for the offense. If anything, an experienced QB should finally show us signs of what we thought the Irish would be when Kelly was hired.



Michigan Wolverines
After years of watching Denard Robinson give opposing defenses fits, it was odd to see the Wolverines rank 78th in the nation in yards per game last season. Michigan, however, had a similar situation to Notre Dame, having to face four top-10 defenses (Alabama, Notre Dame, Michigan State and South Carolina). Therefore, it's not surprising to see the opponent adjustment lift the Wolverines into the top 25 in offensive EPA (22nd, to be exact, one spot behind Ohio State).

Of course, if you look at those four outings against top-10 defenses, Michigan played a good offensive game in only one of them, the Outback Bowl against South Carolina, which happens to be the only game of the group in which Devin Gardner played quarterback. That's an encouraging stat, since Gardner is now the starting QB. Although he didn't have nearly enough action plays to qualify for the national rankings, Gardner had a 2012 QBR of 91, which is Johnny Manziel territory (Manziel led the FBS in QBR with that number). Maybe he wasn't that good in his five games behind center, but Gardner was exceptionally effective, especially for someone who played most of the season at wide receiver.

Don't forget that Brady Hoke had strong offensive teams at Ball State and San Diego State before coming to Michigan. He inherited a QB in Robinson who was such a dynamic playmaker that it forced Hoke to adapt his offense. Gardner is much more the type of quarterback Hoke would prefer to have running the show, so it would stand to reason that we'd see even more of his playbook this fall than we saw at the end of last season. In a way, 2013 may be the grand opening of an offense that's been under construction for the last two years.

There are certainly concerns in Michigan's lineup for this season. Notably, a lack of experience in the middle of the offensive line and very few proven commodities on the depth chart at receiver. But having a quarterback who's a real threat in the passing game should provide a big boost to the Wolverines' rushing attack. And with Gardner's go-to guy, Jeremy Gallon, back at receiver, this offense could be formidable if one more wideout can step up and provide a big-play threat.



Wisconsin Badgers
Continuing the theme of a Big Ten offense that didn't live up to its reputation a year ago, Wisconsin finished 65th in the FBS in yards per game in 2012 after being 14th the previous season. And as you might have guessed by their inclusion in this article, the Badgers were much better than 65th in adjusted offensive EPA. They were, in fact, 26th.

That EPA ranking was due in large part to having a top-10 rushing attack and taking care of the football. Wisconsin had the third-fewest turnovers per game in the FBS last season, which was no surprise, since it had led the nation in that category each of the previous two seasons. EPA obviously expects a good offense to score points, but the metric recognizes that another part of being a good offense is not leaving your defense in a tight spot by giving the ball away instead of punting. Bret Bielema had mastered that element of offensive play with his Wisconsin teams, so it will be interesting to see how well Gary Andersen continues the trend. Andersen's Utah State teams didn't rank in the top 40 for ball protection in any of the last three seasons.

One thing Andersen's teams did very well, however, was run the ball (fifth in the FBS in yards per rush last year; second in 2011), and you can be sure that was a big reason why he was hired. After all, Wisconsin has a reputation to uphold. The Badgers will continue to be a running team, and James White looks like the next featured back in an offense that has churned out 1,000-yard rushers for most of the last 20 seasons.

Some less-publicized good news for this year's offense is that Curt Phillips (QBR: 66) and Joel Stave (QBR: 61) give the Badgers two solid options at quarterback. Those QBR numbers indicate above-average performance by both guys in 2012 -- a great sign, considering neither had thrown a meaningful pass in a college game before last season. And with their top two targets, WR Jared Abbrederis and TE Jacob Pedersen, also returning, there are plenty of reasons to believe that this year's Wisconsin offense will be better than last year's deceptively good unit.