>I'm starting to be
>inclined to think it's "more likely than not" that he killed
>her

... because everything you've been presented that makes you think he may have done it has been irrevocably tainted.

Just because he's a creepy and/or violent guy in the past doesn't mean he committed *this* murder. And the blurred line between "possible murderer" and "specific murderer" is exactly what justice systems like this one exploit to send not-guilty men to prison.

(I know you're not a jury member, so it doesn't really matter what you speculate openly. I'm just saying, lol.)