I honestly think he has nearly no chance of getting a nomination.

I think the four actors you listed as locks are firmly on point, with at least three of them being mortal locks and the fourth one (Phoenix) only shade below because he publicly shit all over the Oscars. I'd still be shocked if he doesn't get nominated.

Of the fifth and final slot, I think Bradley Cooper, Suraj Sharma, and Richard Gere are all ahead of Neeson on the depth chart. The first two because their movies will be nominated for tons of shit, and Gere because he's been around forever and has never gotten nominated and he killed Arbitrage and they might throw him a bone. Plus it's a very Oscary role.

EDIT: And I forgot Hawks, who is obviously even stronger than the people mentioned in the above paragraph.

I mean, shit, given the Academy's demonstrated affinity for biopics, I actually think Bill Murray as FDR and Anthony Hopkins as Hitchcock have better - if extremely small - chances than Neeson.

We know how the Oscars get down - it often comes down to the perceived prestige of the movie. A lot of people misunderstood what The Grey was, and I don't think that's going to change with a bullshit re-release, especially if Harv ain't behind it.