Plus the fact that Clear Channel and most of the major record companies have a stranglehold on everything that's played. Not to mention that although not everyone can become a pop star, but the ppl who do become one don't necessarily get there on talent. Most don't write their songs, don't produce their songs, don't pick who produces or writes their songs and are overly produced. It's like you said a lottery. Heck, most already have some kind of connection to the industry (Family, friends, related entertainment career) or are taken under the wing of a mentor.

Is there a set formula for making a #1 hit? Of course not, but doesn't mean record companies don't develop formulas that they throw at listeners until it stops sticking. Radio now has the least range it's ever had.

I don't hate on pop music overall but to say that most of the music on the radio is quality music that very talented ppl worked on is not anywhere close to true.