it's not settled. what 'most likely' means is that if i were forced to bet on it, i'd go with lab leak over natural origin. and my contention is that if most "experts in the field" were forced to do the same...let's say they're forced to bet on it with the consequence of being wrong being a painful death. they have 6 months to weigh the evidence. i think a majority would claim a lab leak was the most likely origin.

but there are all sorts of incentives among experts close to this to not look at things as objectively as they might