Especially given the escalations this week (eg. citizens being evacuated from the border region - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shelling-breaks-out-east-ukraine-west-moscow-dispute-troop-moves-2022-02-17/).


Yes the NATO issue is tricky, but there's also a lot of doublespeak going on as well so wtf knows (note: bear in mind I have no ties to the region or this topic professionally, this is just my political junkie perspective so take with a grain of salt).


There's been open courtship between NATO and Ukraine for many years now (eg. I read recently that joining the alliance was even incorporated into Ukraine's National Security Strategy and Constitution couple of years ago), and the right of any nation to try to join is enshrined in NATO's founding treaty (an open door policy the US hasn't shied away from exploiting to antagonize Putin, especially since Bush-Cheney). But NATO expansion is def controversial in that part of Europe because of Russia, not NATO membership (i.e. there *has* been slight pushback to applicants over the years, but that's mostly been more of a procedural concern bc a prospective country must have members' unanimous support to join).

The far, far, bigger challenge is that Russia demands not only that expansion stops but that NATO retreat to its pre-90s/pre-EU architecture: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/History_of_NATO_enlargement.svg/1095px-History_of_NATO_enlargement.svg.png , which would essentially halve its membership, and Putin says he'll drop a nuke if Ukraine joins NATO (eg. from press conf after talks with France last week - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10488413/Vladimir-Putin-warns-nuclear-war-break-Ukraine-joins-NATO.html?ito=video_player_click). This is bc all these central, eastern, and baltic european states joining the alliance limits Russia's sphere of influence, and the membership of border states would (understandably) be viewed as an existential threat.

So the tightrope facing the West involves not only a (so far unsuccessful) strategic aim of deterring Russian aggression (bc it undermines NATO's sphere of influence) but an optical one, since Russian supremacy over NATO would totally weaken current and prospective members' confidence in the alliance. That's why there's been all this confusing:

* "We must protect Ukraine!" from the West (meanwhile Ukraine's pres was like everybody pls chill);
* "We're not trying to start a war!" from Russia (meanwhile Putin sent 100,000+ troops to their border as well as hard weaponry, medics, and blood for transfusions);
* "Putin, calm tf down man!" from the US (meanwhile Biden sent thousands of troops to the region and keeps escalating the West's rhetoric)
* "Ukraine's not part of NATO and won't be for the forseeable future!" from NATO members (meanwhile joining NATO is part of Ukraine's National Security Strategy and codified into their constitution);

etc etc. Almost every state actor in this crisis is giving mixed signals. So imho if this war pops off (which is looking increasingly likely) it'll be one of the worst-timed and worst-executed diplomatic failures in recent history.