>Expected outcomes are a basic tool for making decisions under
>uncertain conditions.

expected outcome for 3 YEARS of work, not a lifetime as you insinuated.

>
>For each NFL player there are a solid thousand that tried and
>failed to make it, even after similar energy expenditures in
>high school / college.
>

for every coder, doctor, lawyer, designer, engineer hired, there are a thousand that tried and failed. life is hard, and the cream rises to the top. sports are easy to play but difficult to master, and if you don't have the tool box to succeed, you won't be able to hang with the best of the best. nothing about this points to the lottery or slavery.

>The cost of that failed effort vastly exceeds the total
>benefit to this cohort of prospective players. Contrast this
>with nearly any other career. The energy expenditure costs us,
>as a people, drastically more than we benefit. The shiny
>salaries of the few mask a LOT of wasted opportunity. If we're
>looking at entire societies, and how the NFL affects them,
>this is all relevant.

those aren't objective facts, those are opinions.

failed effort? it depends on how you look at it. athletes have a higher quality of life due to better health. athletes learn discipline and demonstrate ambition, which are highly valued attributes in any and every field.

there are plenty of people who did not make the cut, but went on to do amazing and remarkable things thanks to the tools they learned as athletes.

your perception of these realities strikes me as overly pessimistic. look at your own life as an example. did you quit after failing to do something? or did you pick yourself up and continue down a good path? you strike me as someone who did, so why do you expect less of someone that doesn't make the nfl but who has invested into discipline, ambition, hard work, and perseverance? that's just part of human life. nothing is easy, nothing is given, everything is earned.

>
>The outcome should make some common sense to you. You have
>about a lotto player's chance of making any money at all.

professional sports are not a lottery and the comparison is illogical. as an athlete, you are not picked out of a hat. you are evaluated based on your physical attributes and skills. anyone can play football, and that's why there are so many aspiring football players, because it is an easy game to play, however, that does not mean you will make it just because you can catch a ball, because there are thousands of people who just might be better than you are at it. none of this is based on lottery.


>Whereas with the lotto you are gambling your own money, with
>the NFL you are gambling with your time and energy.
>

3 million over 3 years to play a game you love is not a failed effort by any stretch of the imagination. anyone has the capacity to waste their money, equally, anyone has the capacity to be smart with it.


>Again, contrast with nearly any other career. The drastic
>imbalances in the numbers are inherently exploitative. More
>"earn your freedom" than "build a career".


via your own example, a coder earns 3 million over 30 years, compared to a football player who earns 3 million of 3 years. i think the math is pretty clear that it pays to be a football player. after the 3 years are up, you walk away with great health, a lot of money, and time to use that money well, or not, it's up to them.