https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1429949145540796419
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High turnout is very important for Newsom's chances in the recall election.

The recall tends to do better in polls of Likely Voters (LV) than Registered Voters (RV):

YouGov
RV: No +8
LV: No +4

Core Decision Analytics
RV: No +11
LV: No +7

Berkeley IGS
RV: No +15
LV: No +3
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the reason why theres such a discrepancy in lv and rv...is because the stated level of enthusiasm for r and d voters was so large. but that gap is most likely gonna narrow as the election date nears and more ads and door canvassing takes place. also...ballots being sent to everyones else makes voters less dependent on enthusiasm to drive them to get up and go cast a vote. you can just fill out your ballot at home and drop it off at a dropbox or mailbox and be done with it. so that narrows the impact of an enthusiasm gap as well.

as you can see...as the electorate moves closer to the rv model...the recall becomes less and less competitive (in the favor of not recalling newsom).

but even in the low dem enthusiasm/turnout models...newsom still wins by a few points.

87% of cali voters voted by mail in 2020. the percentage of voters to do so has increased each election as voters (especially dems) adopt mail voting as their preferred method and the state increases access. so there isnt gonna be some *dramatic* rush by repubs to vote in person in election day like some other states. it might make a small difference if the election is razor thin at that point. but the election is pretty much gonna mirror the returned ballot picture.