only 3% of ballots returned but...
https://twitter.com/Morgan_Rynor/status/1429845789270941699

breakdown very similar to 2020 at this stage (dems actually doing slightly better):
https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1429949142114000897

its a small sample size...and things could fall off a cliff going forward...but so far it doesnt look like we are seeing this phenomenon of energized repubs significantly changing the electoral landscape against apathetic dems.

the partisan fundamentals of ca seem to be playing out fairly predictably so far.

i keep seeing pundits and opinion writers talking about dems failing to engage their base and so on...but the word from local folks who have covered cali elections for decades say that the dem party (and affiliated groups) have ramped up the gotv effort to a massive degree.

i think something thats not really being discussed...early on...repubs were energized because they just wanted newsom out and they are angry at just about everything right now (masks, vaccines, 2020 election, etc). and dems didnt really have anyone to vote against or be angry at...since the entire repub field was pretty much indiscernible from each other.

but now that larry elder is the frontrunner...dems have a single opponent to attack and draw clear lines of distinction between him and newsom. and elder...on the other hand...still is running what is essentially a repub primary campaign because he has to get his own partys voters to choose him over the other repubs. so he has to stake out the most extreme positions in many cases without spending any time appealing to moderates. and most of those positions are extremely unpopular in ca (getting rid of covid precautions, casting doubt on biden win, etc). which makes the choice between him and newsom even more clean cut. so even people who were on the fence about newsom personally and maybe not as motivated to vote...are resorting to their partisan lean and voting *against* elder and the shit he is proposing.