https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/politics/gavin-newsom-california-recall/index.html

Here we are again at the precipice. Can we just agree that ANY republican is not a good answer at this point?

I got no real love for Newsom, but if he's recalled, we're in some really messy s**t. Like you said, literally ANY Repub is bad, even Faulconer. And like Cilizza said in the link, the "energy disparity" is trending poorly for Newsom. I still feel like he's gonna squeek it out, but I'm not as confident of that as I was months ago.

Like, if someone gets impeached and removed? Fine.

But the rules to get a recall going are a fucking joke. Okay, you don't like Newsom. Neither do I. But he was elected.

Honestly - I think we're in serious fucking trouble and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a lunatic like Larry Elder elected.

Right now you only need the signature of 12% of the votes cast in a previous election to trigger a recall. At a minimum they should up that number to 25% and shorten the window to collect signatures.

The recall effort started before covid but really picked up steam due to covid.

At any rate, I know California Democrats aren’t excited about the recall but we are all being mailed ballots so I hope they just fill out and return their ballots as that’s all they have to do.

just like they use redistricting,
voting id laws

etc.

12% of total voters is extremely low threshold. Sure that number was probably good enough 100 years ago when it was difficult to get signatures from voters but now it is extremely easy to set up outside multiple Walmart’s and Targets and get thousands of signatures a day.

Get 'em outta here.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/california-governor-hopeful-larry-elders-ex-alexandra-datig-alleges-he-waved-a-gun-at-her-while-high

"The ex-fiancée of California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder alleges that he waved a gun at her while high after using marijuana, Politico reports. Alexandra Datig said she called off her engagement to Elder after the incident, which was one of many heated arguments between the couple. “He checked if it was loaded—while I was talking,’’ Datig told Politico. “He wanted to make sure I saw that he had it.” Elder has gained momentum within the GOP as the recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom has put the veteran radio producer in the political spotlight. Elder denied Datig’s allegation, saying, “I have never brandished a gun at anyone.” "

that was sarcasm.

I’m still very anxious about this

They say it's because of mail thefts - but it's clearly because of recall.

https://twitter.com/jeanguerre/status/1429585527259369478?s=21

I'm hoping that something good happens for Newsom that breaks the current news cycle in CA at this point. He needs for every "viable" Republican challenger to have to have a scandal that captures headlines.

God, if you're out there, HAAALP! - Sir Smoke-A-Lot

people really typing that out loud?

the singular is goofy enough. is that really the plural?

and do we really trust someones analysis on whats going on with latinos when they talk like that?

republicans best trait is absolute shamelessness.

these niggas have no policies, no ideas, no belief in facts, expertise, science or even reality.

just reactionary grievance toward the liberal majority and anything *they* embrace.

and they never have to explain or answer for it. they dont care how silly, destructive, immoral any of this is.

its completely psychotic.

This must be how Rome looked towards the end... hopefully "we" don't follow suit.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/california-recall-election-gavin-newsom.html



By Shawn Hubler
Aug. 18, 2021

The coronavirus pandemic is making a comeback in California, with at least one lingering side effect for Gov. Gavin Newsom: the Republican-led push to relieve him of his job.

How a Democratic star in the bluest of blue states could have ended up confronting a recall remains one of the more remarkable mysteries of the moment. In a perfect storm of partisan rage and pandemic upheaval, the effort to oust Mr. Newsom has become only the second recall attempt against a California governor to qualify for the ballot.

A special election has been set for Sept. 14. Ballots have gone out to every one of the state’s registered, active voters after pandemic voting rules were extended through the end of this year by the Democrats who dominate the Legislature in California.

If you haven’t been paying attention to every detail — every in-the-clutch mega-donation, every Kodiak bear appearance, every star of right-wing talk radio to enter the campaign — we totally understand. So here is the California Recall Encyclopedia of 2021.

So what’s with California and recalls?

Direct democracy is a big part of Golden State political culture. Since 1911, when California approved recalls as part of a sweeping Progressive-era reform package, 179 recall attempts have been made against state officeholders. Launching a recall in California is easier than in almost any state, and every governor since 1960 has faced at least one.

But the vast majority of those efforts against governors fizzle. California is enormous, with a population of nearly 40 million and at least five major media markets. The cost of campaigning statewide tends to thwart all but the most moneyed and determined critics.

Besides Mr. Newsom’s, only one other attempted recall of a California governor, Gray Davis, has ever reached an election. Mr. Davis lost in 2003 to Arnold Schwarzenegger, who went on to face his own blitz of attempted recalls.

How do California recalls work?
A recall petition must be signed by enough registered voters to equal 12 percent of the turnout in the last election for governor. The organizers do not need to give a reason for the recall, but they often do. The petition must include at least 1 percent of the last vote for the office in at least five counties. Proponents have 160 days to gather their signatures.


The signatures must then be examined and verified by the California secretary of state. If the petitions meet the threshold — 1,495,709 valid signatures in this case — voters who signed have 30 business days to change their minds. Mr. Newsom’s critics turned in more than 1.7 million signatures, and voters had until June 8 to reconsider. Only 43 opted to remove their names.

After that, the rules call for a review to determine the cost of the election. But state lawmakers this year voted to let the secretary of state skip that step as long as money to pay for the election had been set aside.

State budget officials estimated this recall would cost the state $276 million, and the Legislature budgeted the money and expedited the review, which at the time seemed to schedule the election to coincide with California’s emergence from the pandemic. But then the virus began to surge once more.

Who can run in a recall?
Candidates to replace the governor must be U.S. citizens registered to vote in California, and must pay a filing fee of about $4,000 or submit signatures from 7,000 supporters. They cannot be convicted of certain felonies, and they cannot be the governor up for recall. They have until 59 days before the election to file.

The ballot asks voters two questions: Should the governor be recalled? And if so, who should be the new governor? If the majority of voters say no to the first question, the second is moot. But if more than 50 percent vote yes, the candidate with the most votes becomes the next governor. The 2003 winner, Mr. Schwarzenegger, had only 48.6 percent of the vote.

Who is challenging Newsom?
Although more than 80 candidates officially announced their intention to challenge Mr. Newsom on the recall, only 46 completed the paperwork necessary to appear on the ballot before the July 16 deadline. No serious challenger has emerged from Mr. Newsom’s party, but the governor lost a legal battle to reverse a filing error and include his party affiliation next to his name on the ballot. As a result, the ballot will tell voters what parties his challengers belong to, but not that Mr. Newsom is a Democrat.

The Republicans include Kevin Faulconer, the former mayor of San Diego; John Cox, a San Diego businessman who recently distinguished himself by touring the state with a live Kodiak bear; Kevin Kiley, a Republican state assemblyman; Ted Gaines, a member of the State Board of Equalization; and Caitlyn Jenner, a reality television star and former Olympic athlete. After some legal wrangling over a requirement to produce income tax returns, the conservative talk radio host Larry Elder is also in the fray — and has quickly become the front-runner among the challengers.

One early challenger, the former pornographic film actress Mary Carey who ran in the 2003 recall, dropped out of the race, saying she was moving to Florida. But the entertainer and former Los Angeles billboard fixture Angelyne will reprise her 2003 candidacy.

Who started the recall?
Three sets of critics tried five times to recall Mr. Newsom before the sixth recall petition caught on in 2020. The first two groups were led by unsuccessful Republican candidates for Congress in Southern California, and the first papers were filed three months after Mr. Newsom’s inauguration in 2019.

All three groups were Trumpian conservatives who, at least initially, raised familiar arguments against the governor’s liberal stances on such issues as the death penalty, immigration, gun control and taxes.

The lead proponent of the current recall campaign is Orrin Heatlie, a retired Yolo County sheriff’s sergeant who had handled the social media for one of the earlier failed recall bids. He and his group, the California Patriot Coalition, took issue in particular with the Newsom administration’s resistance to Trump administration crackdowns on undocumented immigrants.

Why pick on Newsom?
Mr. Newsom, 53, the former mayor of San Francisco, has long been a favorite target of Republicans.

His liberal pedigree and deep Democratic connections push an array of G.O.P. buttons. His aunt, for instance, was married for a time to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s brother-in-law. Mr. Newsom, a wine merchant, got his start in politics and business with support from the wealthy Getty family. In 2004, he and his first wife, the cable news legal commentator Kimberly Guilfoyle, appeared in a spread for Harper’s Bazaar shot at the Getty Villa and titled “The New Kennedys.”

As mayor, Mr. Newsom made headlines for sanctioning same-sex marriage licenses before they were legal. As governor, he has remained a progressive standard-bearer. He championed ballot initiatives that legalized recreational marijuana and outlawed possession of the high-capacity magazines often used in mass shootings. One of his first acts as governor was to declare a moratorium on executions.

Mr. Newsom is now married to Jennifer Siebel Newsom, a filmmaker, and is the father of four small children. Ms. Guilfoyle is Donald Trump Jr.’s girlfriend.

Isn’t it hard to recall a Democrat in California?
California is less liberal in the aggregate than its reputation. Some six million Californians voted for Donald J. Trump in the 2020 election. That’s roughly quadruple the number of signatures proponents needed to put a recall onto the ballot, and those were the voters who were targeted.

And although Mr. Heatlie and his group describe themselves as mainstream, a significant portion of the energy behind the recall is coming from the fringes. Early rallies to promote it were heavily populated by Proud Boys and anti-vaccination activists. Backers of Mr. Heatlie’s campaign have made social media posts bashing immigrants and depicting the governor as Hitler.

“Microchip all illegal immigrants. It works! Just ask Animal control,” Mr. Heatlie himself wrote in a 2019 Facebook post. He now says that the remark was “a conversation starter” that he did not intend to be taken literally.

Did the pandemic play into the recall?
Not at first.

Californians initially approved of Mr. Newsom’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Mr. Newsom was the first governor in the nation to issue a stay-at-home mandate, a decision that seemed prescient as the virus ravaged the Northeast. But Mr. Newsom’s on-again, off-again health rules began testing Californians’ patience.

Separately, Mr. Heatlie’s recall campaign had languished. It had to be filed twice because of technical errors. By last June, when the secretary of state gave the group permission to start circulating petitions, the governor’s emergency health orders had dispersed the usual signature-gathering crowds at supermarkets and malls.

Citing the pandemic restrictions, the group asked Judge James Arguelles of the Sacramento Superior Court for an extension. Judge Arguelles granted it. The governor’s supporters say the recall would never have gotten off the ground had the judge not extended the signature-gathering deadline.

Public school parents expressed widespread dissatisfaction with the sustained shutdown of public school classrooms during the pandemic. (Mr. Newsom’s children attend private schools.) This month, the governor announced that all teachers and school staff members would have to be vaccinated or undergo weekly testing this school year, a requirement that was immediately slammed by Republican challengers on the ballot.

But the governor’s approval ratings were relatively healthy even in the winter when Covid-19 was still pummeling California. As the recall election approaches, his support has been more fragile, sagging when surges have forced him to reinstitute health measures and rising during periods when the virus has waned.

What happened at The French Laundry?
On the evening of Nov. 6, hours after the court approval was made final for the signature gathering extension, the governor went to a birthday party for a Sacramento lobbyist and friend at French Laundry, a pricey Napa Valley restaurant. After photos leaked of Mr. Newsom mingling, maskless, at the restaurant, he apologized, but Californians were outraged.

And Republicans were ecstatic: Mr. Heatlie’s petitions, which had only 55,588 signatures on the day of the dinner, had nearly half a million a month after Nov. 6.

Who is backing the recall now?
Mr. Heatlie said the 1,719,900 voters who ultimately signed his group’s petition are a grass-roots cross-section of Republicans, independents and Democrats who no longer trust the governor. Their names are not public information. Supporters of the governor say the recall supporters are overwhelmingly Republican.

Newt Gingrich, the Republican former House speaker, has promoted the recall. Mike Huckabee, the Republican former governor of Arkansas, donated $100,000 through his political action committee.

John E. Kruger, an Orange County entrepreneur and charter school backer who opposed Mr. Newsom’s pandemic health restrictions on churches, remains by far the largest donor. Mr. Kruger, who has donated to candidates of both parties, gave $500,000 to the recall shortly after the French Laundry affair. Mr. Cox, the Republican candidate, also has pumped at least $7 million into the recall and into self-funding for his own campaign.

Most of the state’s newspaper editorial boards, including those of The Los Angeles Times, San Diego Union-Tribune, Mercury News, San Francisco Chronicle and Sacramento Bee, have urged voters to vote no on the recall, arguing that it is a waste of money or that the time to vote for or against the governor is next year, when he runs for re-election.

The Orange County Register, traditionally a right-of-center opinion page, endorsed Larry Elder in an editorial that was picked up by some suburban papers under the same ownership in Southern California. The Bakersfield Californian endorsed Mr. Faulconer.

How has Newsom responded?
For many months, he did not utter the R-word. But since March, when it became clear that it had traction, Mr. Newsom and his campaign team have launched an all-out war on the recall.

They have actively discouraged Democrats — including Tom Steyer, a former presidential candidate, and Antonio Villaraigosa, a former mayor of Los Angeles who lost to Mr. Newsom in the 2018 primary — from launching rival campaigns.

And they have mustered not only their Democratic base, including progressives and organized labor, but also big names within the party — President Biden, Elizabeth Warren — and establishment interests. For example, the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce Board of Directors, a business organization, has come out against the recall, calling it an “irresponsible” distraction from the state’s efforts to revive the economy.

Californians, meanwhile, have in some ways had it better than a studio audience on “Oprah.” In the spring, as the virus receded, Mr. Newsom tweaked health rules to hasten the reopening of businesses and classrooms. He rebated large portions of an enormous state surplus in the form of stimulus checks to poor and middle class taxpayers for up to $1,100 per household. And as California reopened, he held lotteries complete with ball machines and $1.5 million grand prizes, as part of the nation’s largest vaccine incentive program.

Pollsters note that Mr. Newsom has less personal popularity to fall back on than his predecessors, including Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jerry Brown. And the most recent poll by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, found that Californians who plan to vote in the September special election are almost evenly split on whether to recall Mr. Newsom.

But polls also consistently show voters overall oppose the recall. One poll, conducted in May by the Public Policy Institute of California, found that nearly six in 10 likely voters would vote to keep the governor.

With 46 percent of the state’s voters registered Democratic and only 24 percent registered Republican, Mr. Newsom should have the advantage — if Democrats turn out for him.

Which side raised the most money?
Supporters of the recall have raised approximately $6.6 million so far, and opponents have raised about $51.3 million, according to the nonprofit news site CalMatters. The governor’s war chest dwarfs that of even the most moneyed of his opponents, such as Mr. Cox, who has raised about $9.2 million, mostly self-funded, and Mr. Elder, who has reported more than $5 million in donations in the weeks since his candidacy was announced.

Campaign finance rules have worked in Mr. Newsom’s favor. California law treats his defense against the recall as a ballot issue, but treats the candidacies of his challengers as regular elections. So the governor can raise unlimited sums to fend off the recall, while his rivals, unless they are self-funding, must abide by a $32,400-per-election limit on individual contributions. Mega-donations for and against the overall recall campaigns are not restricted by those single-candidate limits.

In late May, Mr. Newsom’s campaign announced a jaw-dropping $3 million donation from the founder of Netflix, Reed Hastings, who supported Mr. Villaraigosa in the 2018 primary. Labor groups, tribal organizations and the California Association of Realtors have also pledged large sums.

Shawn Hubler is a California correspondent based in Sacramento. Before joining The Times in 2020 she spent nearly two decades covering the state for The Los Angeles Times as a roving reporter, columnist and magazine writer, and shared three Pulitzer Prizes won by the paper's Metro staff. @ShawnHubler

and knowing you are going to make money in politics regardless of your political party affiliation.

Just talking to people in general I've noticed either people are being blazay and think it's not going to happen or don't even know what the whole thing is about.

I mean this kinda happened the last time with Davis and Arnold moving in to take place. It's not far fetched that Elder wins and the state and country are fucked even more as a result.

I'm sure good old Gavin really wishes he hadn't gone to that French Laundry dinner. The Food is excellent though...

..,credible Democrats from putting themselves on the ballot, but it might hurt his chances. That was all good a few months ago, when this thing looked DOA after things looked like they were under control and all the "credible" Republicans made themselves look like clowns. But now COVID is surging again. He might not want to lose his job Villalagrossa, but it's a WHOLE lot better than losing it to Elder, who'll ****maybe***** get 30% of the votes.

has to be the silliest shit I have ever seen.

There are candidates whose description is "Love U" or youtube page addresses

This is worse than when Davis got recalled. Honestly this is A+ strategy by the Repubs. They're playing chess on this one, doing just enough to slide in someone to flip things later.

It's so easy to vote by mail now but I don't think it's enough.

only 3% of ballots returned but...
https://twitter.com/Morgan_Rynor/status/1429845789270941699

breakdown very similar to 2020 at this stage (dems actually doing slightly better):
https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1429949142114000897

its a small sample size...and things could fall off a cliff going forward...but so far it doesnt look like we are seeing this phenomenon of energized repubs significantly changing the electoral landscape against apathetic dems.

the partisan fundamentals of ca seem to be playing out fairly predictably so far.

i keep seeing pundits and opinion writers talking about dems failing to engage their base and so on...but the word from local folks who have covered cali elections for decades say that the dem party (and affiliated groups) have ramped up the gotv effort to a massive degree.

i think something thats not really being discussed...early on...repubs were energized because they just wanted newsom out and they are angry at just about everything right now (masks, vaccines, 2020 election, etc). and dems didnt really have anyone to vote against or be angry at...since the entire repub field was pretty much indiscernible from each other.

but now that larry elder is the frontrunner...dems have a single opponent to attack and draw clear lines of distinction between him and newsom. and elder...on the other hand...still is running what is essentially a repub primary campaign because he has to get his own partys voters to choose him over the other repubs. so he has to stake out the most extreme positions in many cases without spending any time appealing to moderates. and most of those positions are extremely unpopular in ca (getting rid of covid precautions, casting doubt on biden win, etc). which makes the choice between him and newsom even more clean cut. so even people who were on the fence about newsom personally and maybe not as motivated to vote...are resorting to their partisan lean and voting *against* elder and the shit he is proposing.

according to the most recent cbs news poll...https://cbsnews3.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2021/08/14/304eee23-e519-49d4-8d4f-8c59c017d664/thumbnail/620x349/31b4fd00b68929b5955e5fc2d6256575/newsom-approval-overall.png

which would still put him firmly among the most popular governors in america.

meanwhile folks like abbott and desantis are in the 40s and still falling as covid ravages their states and they resist common sense measures like mask mandates.

its a joke that newsom is the one fighting for his political future while the other 2 just get to be unhinged assholes with no consequence for the next 3 years.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1429949145540796419
-----
High turnout is very important for Newsom's chances in the recall election.

The recall tends to do better in polls of Likely Voters (LV) than Registered Voters (RV):

YouGov
RV: No +8
LV: No +4

Core Decision Analytics
RV: No +11
LV: No +7

Berkeley IGS
RV: No +15
LV: No +3
-----

the reason why theres such a discrepancy in lv and rv...is because the stated level of enthusiasm for r and d voters was so large. but that gap is most likely gonna narrow as the election date nears and more ads and door canvassing takes place. also...ballots being sent to everyones else makes voters less dependent on enthusiasm to drive them to get up and go cast a vote. you can just fill out your ballot at home and drop it off at a dropbox or mailbox and be done with it. so that narrows the impact of an enthusiasm gap as well.

as you can see...as the electorate moves closer to the rv model...the recall becomes less and less competitive (in the favor of not recalling newsom).

but even in the low dem enthusiasm/turnout models...newsom still wins by a few points.

87% of cali voters voted by mail in 2020. the percentage of voters to do so has increased each election as voters (especially dems) adopt mail voting as their preferred method and the state increases access. so there isnt gonna be some *dramatic* rush by repubs to vote in person in election day like some other states. it might make a small difference if the election is razor thin at that point. but the election is pretty much gonna mirror the returned ballot picture.

https://twitter.com/Morgan_Rynor/status/1430021079016247311
-----
Monday night recall data: 1,076,724 ballots returned.
Here is the party affiliation breakdown from @paulmitche11:
Dem: 604,981
Ind/other: 236,002
Rep: 236,038.
5% of potential ballots have been returned so far.
Majority are white voters (737,655 to be exact)
-----

dems actually increasing their vote share as time goes on. they make up 47% of the states voters but have increased to 56% of the ballots returned.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9ht3VlWEAQmE5G?format=png&name=900x900

i might as well stop posting updates unless something dramatically changes the dynamics.

this thing might turn out to be one big collective yawn.

i cant find the tweet but i saw a stat that dems could shed over 38% of their vote share from newsoms first election in 2018...and still win by an outright majority (50% + 1).

if/when newsom pulls this thing off...dems need to immediately start gathering signatures to put a constitutional amendment on a future ballot to blow this silly ass recall law to smithereens.

Let's make it a priority, California.

I love Ballottrax.

https://california.ballottrax.net/voter/

https://www.politicaldata.com/2021-Special-Election-Tracker/

theres still 3 weeks to go and repubs could possibly mount a furious comeback.

but some people were predicting a super-energized repub base and an apathetic dem base and thats not playing out here. it looks like a typical cali statewide election and thats bad news for elder (or any repub).

they will probably wise up and vote no and keep Newsom in. The idea that you could have a republican/GQP type governor who could both possibly appoint a U.S. Senator if anything happens to Feinstein due to her age or roll back any statewide programs(like vaccination policy) that people depend on a la Florida or Texas is a scary notion to most people when they think about it seriously.

so people who arent even crazy about newsom still recognize hes a ton better than the other guy (now that there is another guy)...and theyre voting accordingly.

The State Assembly is now looking to pass a bill requiring proof of vaccination to go to restaurants, movie theaters, gyms, etc.

Before this, they'd left everything to Newsom. And since a big part of Elder's "campaign" is that he'd get rid of the statewide mask mandate on Day 1 of his term, I think it's pretty likely that this plan is in place to counteract that possible doomsday scenario. Plus, some in the state legislature think taking the decision out of Newsom's hands will help shift any "blame" and help him during the recall.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-I9nXbWEAA14Bz?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-I9pLPXsAIjm_Z?format=jpg&name=medium

dems returning ballots at 7% higher rate than their voter registration share (where they already have a 2:1 advantage over repubs).

and dems still have a lot of room to grow with latinos and young voters (who are both underperforming as of now). any uptick in those groups could really put this thing away early.

it was a fucking joke. Older millenials remember the shit show and if they didnt vote then they surely will now to avoid that mess at the very least.

that surveyusa poll that caused the wave of panic when it had newsom losing the recall vote by 11 points?

it now has him winning by 8 points.
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1432788116364922888

another poll has newsom winning by 15 points.
https://twitter.com/scottshafer/status/1430955203797282823

in the end...i think the recall polled better when newsom was faced with some perfect dem alternative or generic nonexistent repub who is moderate enough to win over indies and breakaway dems but also conservative enough to hold the repub base. but in reality...people were stuck with some youtube real estate influencer and larry elder lol.

then people realized the grass aint always greener.

doesn't exist anymore. Or least won't run for statewide office and get GOP support. I think I said in the last post about this recall, it would have to be someone like Arnold, who's a celebrity and can run as pro-choice, pro-environment, yet pro-business and somewhat fiscally conservative. And there's no major Republican with name recognition like that out here. Faulconer comes closest on the position side, but he's barely making a dent in this circus (he's polling at like 5 or 6% in the recall). And if he can't even get a fifth of the support of Larry Elder, I doubt people are going to put money behind him in 2022.

Faulconer is probably the best positioned GOP candidate to win a statewide election as he would probably be able to appeal to independents but his own base doesn’t even seem to want him so he has no chance to win.

I’m from San Diego on only Republicans like him. And they don’t like because a few sensible policies he proposed and his initial opposition to Trump. Now she remade himself as Trump like.

Faulconer is moderate compared to Elder, Trump and other GQP candidates.

I wouldn’t want him to be governor but if the GOP were still a mildly sane and competent party he would be an ideal candidate for them.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1433092411895558152

these late breaking polls generally tend to be more accurate too...since they include people who have already voted and are stating their confirmed choice...and not just their intention.

i see more repubs on twitter going from 'the only way newsom wins is by cheating' to getting angry that they were sold a lie about the race actually being competitive.

It was that Bernie endorsement. I keed! I keed!

there doesnt need to be much more to get newsom past the 50% finish line...but i want this shit to get blown out of the water.

also...i dont wanna hear a bunch of beltway media doomsaying about dems losing latinos and young voters...when these are their typical voting patterns in off year elections.

its already pretty peculiar that the media is comparing this election to the sky high turnout in 2020 and not the more appropriate 2018 when newsom was actually running lol.

https://twitter.com/moonbeamvotes/status/1433773164023083011

overall returns are decreasing...mostly driven by the dip in repubs returning ballots. dems still returning more than repubs and indies combined.

i wouldnt be surprised if the texas abortion ban fires up even more dems to get those votes in.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-tlkC5VgAEmZIV?format=jpg&name=large

indies (who lean dem 55-60%) are also catching up to republicans.

larry elder was prolly the best thing to happen to gavin newsom. niggas werent really high on newsom but theyll be damned if let that goofy nigga take over.

i think a lot of crazy ass republicans might save a lot dems in the midterms. ga, az, pa, oh, wi, etc got some right wing nutbags who could easily turn off a lot of moderate voters.

during the tea party wave…they actually blew some key elections running some wild ass candidates. now those candidates are pretty much the standard in the gop.

I hope I don't have to eat my words when Sen. Hershel is sworn in tho

I'm seeing the makings of that if they get any of the big items(filibuster, voting rights, infrastructure, Agent Orange in the clink...) on the board. The window could be closing for that slam dunk though.

Repubs will come out in droves methinks. Fucking 45 is calling a fight on September 11th with Jr- he's very much still in the mix.

if they continue to think people like Hershel and Elder are good candidates we may ha e a shot.

and the party of the current prez historically tends to lose seats anyway.

but it might not be as bad as some think.

beltway media makes any dem loss or underperformance a bellwether for future elections...but oddly doesnt provide much coverage for dems flipping a long time repub nh state assembly seat or the dem landslide victory for the wi superintendent office (races they previously said would portend dem midterm troubles).

im sure when newsom wins this race in a blowout close to his record margin from 2018...even with a less young/diverse electorate due to it being a snap off-year election...the media will still go on about what trouble it spells for newsom and democrats across the entire country.

Was watching house Hunters on the Discovery App and this AD comes on:

Actual text of actual ad:
"You remind me of the guy in high school who took my girlfriend, Then went onto the next girl. You still think you’re better than everyone else. You shut down public schools while your kids went to private school. Even now you live by different rules. You closed tiny coffee shops while you ate dinner at the fanciest restaurant. Twelve thousand dollars for wine. You’ve lost touch with reality. This is not about political parties. It is about you, Gavin Newsom.”

Watch the ad at this link:
https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1435695547386634253?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1435695547386634253%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mediaite.com%2Fpolitics%2Fman-in-larry-elder-ad-tells-gavin-newsom-you-remind-me-of-the-guy-in-high-school-who-took-my-girlfriend%2F

and is definitely the way these GOP assholes operate.

Like Dems stole their girl in HS and they haven’t recovered 20 years later.

guys like Ted Cruz and Lindsay Graham behave like they're still trying to impress the guy who bullied them in 8th grade

this dude went directly to middle aged incel. Someone took his girlfriend who was never his girlfriend

>Watch the ad at this link:
>https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1435695547386634253?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1435695547386634253%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mediaite.com%2Fpolitics%2Fman-in-larry-elder-ad-tells-gavin-newsom-you-remind-me-of-the-guy-in-high-school-who-took-my-girlfriend%2F

This: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ETF6rS8WWI

HUGE mud pies

decided at the reunion he was finally gonna say something and she shows up with this Gavin guy

Larry Elder save slave owners deserve reparations because they lost property.

He need to shoot the fade.

really…

shit seemed like a terrible way to try to get sympathy. The way Elder is walking makes it obvious this shit was staged.

https://youtu.be/z9OprNUgHz8

my only question was how the fuggg did she miss?

After all that happened his "security" tried to get at some of the homeless there and those Venice homeless folks gave them the business.

Elder out there looking like the awkward coon he is, nothing more. Gorilla mask just had bad aim.

>After all that happened his "security" tried to get at some
>of the homeless there and those Venice homeless folks gave
>them the business.
>
>Elder out there looking like the awkward coon he is, nothing
>more. Gorilla mask just had bad aim.

Only helps to make the "radical left" look crazy.

But whatever. I hope I never hear this dummy's name again after next week.

I get the egg tossing but the gorilla mask just felt a bit too on point for “why isn’t the media reporting this as a hate crime!!!”

its always a tell when it circulates first among the same twitter accounts that circulate staged 'antifa' and project veritas videos on some 'WHY ISNT THE MEDIA REPORTING ON THIS?'.

the real story was how larry elder visited the homeless and even *they* didnt want his ass to win lol.

But I'm also not trying to be the crazy right who point the fingers at insurrectionists to say they're antifa.

uh yeah...

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437035665951059990
https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437035668576768004

dems slightly above their voter share in returned ballots at this stage in 2020.

and this is with an electorate where latinos and young people arent coming out (typical for off year elections...also latinos skew younger than rest of the population so those 2 demos overlap a lot).

i also wouldnt be surprised if more repubs vote to keep newsom than dems vote to recall.

i wonder if we will get any stories about how newsoms easy win with an older and white electorate could spell trouble for republicans?

Demographics are not on the GQPs side. Try as they may, I think they're going extinct(in this form) as far as politics go on the whole. They may have gotten their judicial branch, state senates, and clawing at the federal branches, but I think 2020 Arizona and Georgia were the true markers.

On the other hand, they have media mostly on lock. That is their last refuge.

Trump/GQP also got a lot of South American latinos in Miami and of course has Cubans on lock down.

Lastly, as Reeq mentioned, the GQP will be redistricting around their demographic problem as much as possible.

Yeah, I know that they're going to gerrymander to their hearts content, but that tactic has shown major cracks in its effectiveness long-term. They're trying to keep people from voting too, but if people are charged up by them achieving their goals(meaning Dems with Roe v. Wade) then that's not gonna work. They're betting on apathy too and that's not what I'm seeing nationwide. I definitely agree that we'll see :)

and election shenanigans. Which is hilarious seeing how Democrats have dominated every major state/federal election for the last 15 years.

The token 66 yr old white 'libertarian' was asking if I was trolling him by laughing so much about 'awkward coon' and the egg throwing

Just wish it would've hit.

Also on the note of Venice, they opened up a voting station for the homeless there and they out there voting they dirty asses off.


Guess Larry's gonna be back on the radio or may a shill for Trump if he runs in 2024.

>Also on the note of Venice, they opened up a voting station
>for the homeless there and they out there voting they dirty
>asses off.

>>Also on the note of Venice, they opened up a voting station
>>for the homeless there and they out there voting they dirty
>>asses off.
>
>

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1437977687201562631?s=19

Nice try, GQP.

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1437987825807466498

At least in CA. Because that's what the Gavin adds have been pounding away at for the last month or so. And once it became clear that Elder really was the front runner or the recall candidates, it was all downhill from there.

I have no idea what the CA Republicans can pull out of this that's good for 2022. I'm sure before this, Faulconer ***thought*** he'd have a legit shot in the general next year, but he pissed it all away. I'd say the main things they should learn are to take COVID seriously and don't tie yourselves to Trump. Or run to the right of him.

Overall tho, this was a MASSIVE waste of time and money.

they don't have his kind of hold on the media or trainwreck hold on the public. they could wreak havoc in primaries and win in hard right districts but that's probably it

Elder's been around forever, but his only real appeal is to make white people feel less racist when they shit on black people.

maybe a moderate repub, or some kind of anti-woke type dem with enough charaisma could have maybe knocked Newsom, but we're not gonna see Governor Dennis Prager, or Ricky Shroder anytime ever.

https://abc7news.com/ca-recall-election-cost-of-gavin-newsom/11021178/

You'd think theyd at least go hard on the homeless problem, or fires... not saying they're his fault but at least they are real issues, but they were secondary to Newsom went to a fancy dinner.. and he's good looking lol

I mean, it was a genuine "gotcha" moment that made him look like a hypocrite. And it was at one of the most posh/expensive restaurants in the state. Everything just screamed "liberal elitist."

But, that's all they had. And most people who voted for the recall didn't rank COVID that high as the most important issues in the election (which is why they lost). And it happened over a year ago at this point.

In an election where there was a more viable Republican candidate, instead of Elder, Faulconer, and Simon Smith and his Amazing Dancing Bear, they might have been able to pull it off. But the kind of Republican candidate doesn't exist who might have been able to do it doesn't exist anymore.

but it's one of those things that happens in the final stretch of a close election (ie Mitt 47%) and as you pointed out against a real candidate

"b-b-but the plates were 35k!" (she was invited and didn't pay)

even dem voters like "she should say 'tax the WEALTHY' instead to avoid confusion" (if you believe they are coming after your 30/h paycheck you're being willfully misled by right-wing media) Yeah but what about the content of the message?

tax the wealthy doesnt mean you dont want to be wealthy

its like those who say “People would start more businesses but the taxes are so high so why bother”

make it make sense

i keep seeing met gala mentioned on twitter but i haven't paid attention

don't know about this other than what you guys typed but people find the goofiest reasons to shit on her, like weirdo takes over her being a bartender

2019
Governor Gavin Newsom
Filed by Erin Cruz and 69 others (March 15, 2019)
Failed to qualify for the ballot


Governor Gavin Newsom
Filed by Erin Cruz and 137 others (August 2, 2019)
Failed to qualify for the ballot

Governor Gavin Newsom
Filed by James Veltmeyer and 99 others (August 26, 2019)
Failed to qualify for the ballot

2020

Governor Gavin Newsom
Filed by Orrin E. Heatlie and 124 others (February 13, 2020)
Failed to qualify for the ballot

Governor Gavin Newsom
Filed by Orrin E. Heatlie and 124 others (February 21, 2020)
Qualified for ballot: Recall election September 14, 2021

Governor Gavin Newsom
Filed by Carla Canada and 9 others (June 3, 2020)
Failed to qualify for the ballot

is because a repub judge extended the signature collection deadline a few months because of the pandemic (repub judges in red/swing states shut down similar extensions for progressive ballot measures).

I want to say...they'll extend this nonsense...because of COVID...but not the census
I could be wrong...?

after a federal judge (correctly) ruled to extend the census deadline (which was already shortened by the trump administration).

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1437976644615090177

https://twitter.com/ChrisCillizza/status/1438130898537435139

mind you this was after a landslide dem win that saw no dropoff in dem base numbers and historically red/swing counties flip/choose newsom decisively (the reason newsom is running so close to bidens 2020 win in cali but with an older and whiter off year electorate).

These contrarian, non-sensical hot takes are easy to write up and they touch a low hanging nerve (either outrage or affirmation).
And they depend on people retweeting about how dumb they are. They wouldn't have a career without those retweets.

Cillizza is especially transparent in how he works. He writes for entertainment, not seriousness.
Whatever will get the most clicks, he will write it. Straight reporting on the election is too competitive. But there's plenty of space for contrarian hot takes.

You think you're calling them out for their nonsense. But you are just doing their bidding

and there wasnt a blatant overall institutional rot that leads to the same warped perspectives from countless journalists/outlets throughout the entire beltway media feedback loop.

everything is trouble or cause for pause for dems, while being signs of strength or political savvy for repubs.

its why we have such persistent media tropes as dems in disarray, potential dem overreach, great news for john mccain, lack of 'bipartisanship' when dems are in power, etc.

youre kinda completely dismissing the entire 'bad takes' forest for a few trees to carve out some elaborate counter narrative away from a much broader and historically consistent/pervasive truth.

i mean...youd have to act like network sunday news shows, cable news, nytimes, politico, etc all dont exist.

lol @ trap tho.

*falls to ground* they got meh!

I mean, did you not just do the 2001 version of a retweet here? lol. I would have never been exposed to their "arguments" if not for your post.

In your effort to criticize the media, you just amplify their bad work.

So yeah...trap

if im a cog in some vast nefarious wheel then im doing a pretty bad job lol.

once again this is some forest for the trees shit youre on.

for whatever reason...youre treating people calling out the problem as a bigger issue than the problem theyre calling out (as if the problem doesnt/wouldnt already exist).

thats some galaxy brain 4 dimensional chess 500k dinner with jay z shit.

'we're getting distracted by talking about the problem!'

'distracted from what?'

'the problem!'

🤔

Like ignoring the problem and not talking about it will magically make it all go away.

<
<I dont get it
<

All from people doing what you are doing here. Shitty journalism deserves less attention, not more

Without people promoting his stuff like you are doing, his articles would go unread and he would be jobless like he should be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FKPdnkf01E







































Republicans HUMILIATED in Pathetic California Recall Defeat

https://soundcloud.com/kronus-paxon/look-at-the-coons