Somehow, all of those things seem just as politically likely in the short term as balkanization of the US, but it would be a delight to be surprised. Over a timeline that is measured in decades rather than election cycles, I think Balkanization is more likely.

Either way, political violence is an "is" not an "ought" or "ought not" so if anybody in a position of power actually wants that stuff, they should probably get going before things get any uglier.