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Forum nameGeneral Discussion
Topic subjectInteresting thing is that the dollars AREN'T circulating
Topic URLhttp://board.okayplayer.com/okp.php?az=show_topic&forum=4&topic_id=13432595&mesg_id=13434972
13434972, Interesting thing is that the dollars AREN'T circulating
Posted by Cocobrotha2, Thu Jun-10-21 09:52 AM
The velocity of money... i.e. how frequently individual dollars are being spent on things within a unit of time... is actually at all-time lows.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1V

This suggests that even though the money supply has been grossly expanded, people actually aren't SPENDING it. That would suggest that the spike we're seeing in inflation isn't actually being caused by all of the dollars being created, but might be short term reactions to the supply chain disruptions due to the COVID lockdowns or other extenuating circumstances that have restricted supply of things people want.

Like with cars, the automakers shut down factories during COVID, causing dealers to bid up the price of used cars to meet existing demand. But during COVID, people who did have money start buying more electronics, so the chip manufacturers were already doing alot of business before the automakers came back in the fold. Now the automakers can't get enough chips to build so supply of cars remains constrained.

With housing, lockdowns kept people in their houses, people that were scared for their jobs probably postponed moving and foreclosure moratoriums kept the unemployed in their homes. So there's an extremely low supply of houses available, while the people that are comfortable enough to buy are seeing great rates.

Anyway, I think the Fed is looking at M1 to gauge whether this inflation will be long lasting. If the velocity stays low while the supply chain issues get worked out, then inflation will drop back down and the Fed will keep rates low. If M1 starts to pick up, then you'll see the Fed start talking about raising rates.

The one caveat is that an economy can "incept" itself into inflation... i.e. if enough people believe inflation is coming, they'll actually cause it. I think that explains what's happening with stocks and crypto right now. It's popular in investor circles to say "inflation is coming" like a Stark from Winterfell and the more people that believe it, the higher asset prices will go.